Palin Loses Her Luster

The Republican National Convention combined with the daring selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for as his running mate gave John McCain a comfortable week and a half bounce in the polls.

The national and state polls reflected this bounce, and Republicans around the country finally got energized about their candidate. Meanwhile, Democrats, as they are apt to do, started to lose faith in Barack Obama.

The main-stream media obsessed about Palin, and closely (but in my opinion, not unfairly) examined her thin resume, and the Republicans had her play the role of the sexism victim. And through this, McCain's numbers with white women improved.

But as the public got a better look at Palin, they liked less of what they saw. Her record of reform turned out to be largely exaggerated, as demonstrated by her flat-out lie about her position on the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." It turns out that the earmark crusader was a big fan of pork as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.

Also, her continued involvement and lack of cooperation with the "Troopergate" investigation being leveled against her in Alaska has showed the public that she's not as squeaky clean as everyone thought she was at first.

On top of that, in her first major primetime interview with ABC's Charlie Rose, she basically admitted that she had no idea what the Bush Doctrine was--proving that she was out of the loop on foreign policy. I guess being close to Russia isn't enough. And I'm sure that Tina Fey's portrayal of her on Saturday Night Live didn't help her too much either.

Also, since the excitement around her selection began to die down, the American public began to discover what she actually stood for, and it became clear that several of her views are way, WAY out of the mainstream.

Women learned that she did not support abortions for victims of rape and incest, and in the past week her numbers with women have dropped. Others learned about the fact that she thought the war in Iraq was reflecting God's will, and that she didn't believe in evolution.

And thus, her favorable/unfavorable ratings--which were sky high last week--have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net).

When McCain first announced that he had picked Palin as his running mate, and I saw the immediate effects of the pick, I thought that this was a stroke of brilliance from his campaign. But now, myself and many political pundits see her possibly as more of a liability than an asset to McCain. Sure, she helped to shore up the base, but it was only in places that were going red anyway.

Here is CQ Politics columnist Taegan Goddard's take on it:

"In a political environment not generally friendly to Republicans, McCain's biggest advantage over Obama has been his perceived readiness to be president. He hammered away at this message all summer and kept the race reasonably close.

However, when McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate -- a person just two years removed from being mayor of a town with fewer people than the Fenway Park bleachers -- he essentially gave up experience as a campaign issue. It's hard to argue that Obama is inexperienced when McCain's choice to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency has even less experience."

Palin still has to face off against Joe Biden in the vice presidential debate in two weeks, where his 36 years of experience in the Senate will dwarf her 2 years of experience as governor of a state with a quarter of the population of Brooklyn. To even keep it competitive, she must have the performance of her life, and all Biden has to do is not seem arrogant and not punch too hard.

Combining all of the negatives that have poured out about Palin in the past week with a poor debate performance could turn a significant number of voters off who were initially attracted (not literally) to her.

Now normally, I don't place too much stake in what effects the VP candidates have in the elections--I think in the end people vote based on the top of the ticket--but seeing as how much attention she's gotten and how much she's changed the dynamic of the race, she does have more power to gain or lose votes than a typical VP pick such as Biden.