Last Minute V.P. Speculation

Well, I’m back, and this time it’s for good. Here’s what’s happened since I’ve been away.

John Edwards admitted that he had an affair back in 2006 and his wife, Elizabeth, knew all about it. This means that his political future is basically over and he certainly will not be in Sen. Barack Obama’s cabinet, should he become president. Too bad, he might have made a great attorney general.

In addition, Russia invaded Georgia and started an “armed conflict” over a pro-Russian region in Georgia called South Ossetia. The United States has only verbally defended their close Georgian allies. And thus, another Cold War may have begun. John McCain has been active on the campaign trail, using this to his advantage by flaunting his foreign policy knowledge while Obama ate ice cream in Hawaii.

Other than that, all the political hype has centered on the non-stop speculation about who Obama and McCain will pick as their running mates. The short-lists have narrowed since we last spoke, so here’s my take on the remaining few. Since Obama will pick his in the next five days, let’s start with him.

When the Edwards scandal broke, his name was immediately taken off of the short list (if he was even on it). He didn’t really have much of a shot anyway, and admitted that he did not want the job at one point. But that just makes things official.

Former governor Mark Warner of Virginia’s name was officially taken off when it was announced that he would be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. He also was also an unlikely pick to begin with.

That leaves Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas on everyone's short-list of Obama’s most likely running mates. And none of them are perfect or completely safe choices.

Joe Biden would bring oodles of foreign policy expertise to the ticket if he were to be selected. He is the chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and—coincidentally—just got back from an “information gathering visit” in conflict-torn Georgia. He also has enough experience for himself and Obama--he is now in his sixth term as a U.S. Senator. He is an enthusiastic campaigner and can hold his own in a debate, as demonstrated by his performances in his struggle for the nomination.

On the down side, Biden’s age and 36 years of experience in the Senate would go against Obama’s theme of change and would conflict with his image as a Washington outsider. He is also a loose cannon who often says the wrong thing, like calling Obama “articulate.” Earlier today at his home in Delaware surrounded by reporters, Biden shouted “I’m not the guy,” suggesting that he wasn’t going to Obama’s running mate. Later, he dialed down his earlier comments by saying that he had not spoken with anyone from the Obama camp recently. In fairness, he may have just been bluntly lowering expectations, but it’s those kinds of blunders that could bring harm to the ticket. But all in all, I think he’s the best choice Obama's got at this point.

Tim Kaine would be an interesting pick. He is a popular governor from a red state that Obama has prioritized that has 13 electoral votes. He was and early supporter of Obama’s and the first governor to endorse him. Kaine has executive experience and would be considered a Washington outsider, which would fit perfectly with Obama’s theme of change. However, he is a newcomer to national politics and is only four years older than Obama. He also does not have any foreign policy experience, something that many pundits believe is necessary to balance the ticket. Outside of Virginia, he would not make a whole lot of a difference, but if he could tip that state in Obama’s favor and not cause any harm, he would be a fantastic pick.

Evan Bayh was a popular two-term governor and is a current senator from Indiana, a state with 11 electoral votes that Obama hopes to make competitive this November. Bayh could help win Indiana and other rust belt states by appealing to blue-collar Democrats who have thus far been wary of Obama. In addition, many of his votes and credentials could compensate for Obama’s weaknesses, and he could complement Obama in areas such as economic expertise and executive experience.

However, there is one major downside: he was an ardent supporter of the Iraq War back in 2002. If Obama picked Bayh, he would alienate many progressive Democrats and anti-war independents. It would also undercut his theme of change, and he could no longer flaunt his judgment in opposing the war from the start. Other than his vote on the Iraq War, he would be a safe pick. Some have even gone so far as to call him bland, unexciting, and even a cream puff. But all in all, he’d be a solid pick, but one with a good deal of baggage.

Kathleen Sebelius would be another interesting pick. As the second-term governor of an overwhelmingly Republican state, she has worked across party lines an incredibly successful way--in a way that fits with Obama's theme of unity and bipartisanship. Also, she might appeal to women who were excited by the prospect of having a woman (Hillary) on the ticket. But at the same time, these women might see her as a lesser Hillary, and might ask "what does she have that Hillary doesn't?" She also has the same gaps on foreign policy that Obama has and she would not put her home state, or any specific state, in play. In addition, her response to the State of the Union fell flat, as she often seems to do in such situations. All in all, Sebelius would not hurt Obama, but would not really help him either.

Now, on to McCain. He has already announced that he will reveal his running mate to the public on August 29, his 72nd birthday (yikes) and the day after the Democratic Convention is over. It’s all a part of his plan to recapture the media spotlight and deaden any bounce Obama might get from the convention.

The first and most obvious pick is Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. His new-found conservative views make him popular among conservatives in the party, who have been lukewarm, at best, to McCain. His business experience makes him an appealing pick during a recession. Romney was fantastic at fundraising during his bid for the presidency and would help out an outmatched McCain campaign in that department. He is well-known nationally, is an excellent debater, and has already been vetted and tested by the media. His ties to Michigan may help McCain carry that much sought-after swing state, and his Mormon appeal could help in western battleground states such as Colorado and Nevada.

A downside to picking Romney is that he’s a major, major flip-flopper. Even McCain said that he has changed his position on nearly every single major issue, and voters could believe that he changes his views when it is convenient. Also, his Mormon faith would not sit well with the religious right, who have not been warm to McCain from the start. Also, McCain and Romney have never really gotten along all that well since the bitterly contested New Hampshire primaries. But overall, he’s a helpful and fairly safe pick and the one who I think McCain will choose on August 29.

The next best pick in my book is Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. She would be a surprising yet bold pick, and picking her would certainly steal the spotlight from Obama after the convention. Her age (she’s 44) would certainly balance out McCain’s, and she would add to the maverick…ness of McCain’s campaign. Having a woman on the ticket might be appealing to the many Hillary supporters who wanted to see a woman in line for the presidency, and could potentially steal millions of votes from Obama. She’s extremely popular with the conservative wing of the Republican Party—something McCain has never been—yet is disconnected from the current administration. She’s a fiscal conservative, a lifetime member of the NRA, and is staunchly pro-life.

However, she only has two years of experience, which could get in the way of the party’s ongoing accusations that Obama is too inexperienced. Another major concern is that she would outshine McCain, which would be a major problem. She has also not been included in any reports from the McCain campaign as being a finalist in the veep speculation, so it is unlikely she will get picked. But overall, she would be a very interesting and I think rewarding pick for McCain.

And finally, we have Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota—the ultimate safe pick. The strongest reason for picking him is solely to win his home state of Minnesota, traditionally a blue state with ten electoral votes. The polls are showing that it’s a close race there, and losing it would certainly be a thorn in the Democrats’ side. Pawlenty was also one of McCain’s earliest backers and a close friend. Also, at 47, his youthfulness could offset McCain’s abundance of age. His immigration plan is stricter that McCain’s which could be good and bad. Conservatives would warm up to the ticket more but the new plan would alienate Latinos, who like McCain and his policies on immigration to some extent, and might cause them to lose southwestern states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. In other departments he is generally well-liked by the conservatives, but would not wake them out of their overwhelming apathy.

Former Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania would make a good pick, except for the fact that he’s pro-choice, which for McCain is not even an option right now. He needs the religious right more than ever. Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida has been floated around as a possibility, but if McCain can’t carry Florida on his own, then he doesn’t have a shot anyway. Another plausible pick could be former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio, who would bring economic expertise to the ticket, and could be greatly rewarding to have on the ticket during a recession. But essentially, I think it’s down to Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty.

There’s my take on the veep speculation. Just to recap, for Obama it's down to Kaine, Biden, Bayh, and Sebelius, and I think he should pick Biden. For McCain it's down to Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty, and I think he should pick Romney. Feel free to comment, and I’ll keep you posted over the next week.