Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Monday, June 2, 2008

Clinton Wins Puerto Rico in Landslide

On Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton won a landslide victory over Barack Obama in Puerto Rico. She won 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%, and netted 21 delegates.

This margin was much larger than expected for Clinton, considering the polls only had her up by about 20 points. But it was disappointing in the fact that the Clinton campaign had hoped for a turnout as high as two million, but the actual turnout was less than 400,000.

This apathy can partly be attributed to the fact that Puerto Ricans cannot vote for president in the November election because they are not a state.

The reason for Clinton's win was explained by an exit poll from CNN, which showed that Puerto Ricans who voted in the primary yesterday have an extremely favorable opinion of former President Bill Clinton.

Anyway, the impact of this primary is not very significant on the larger scale, but it further demonstrates her overall dominance since Indiana and North Carolina. She has finished this race very strongly, and she is even expected to be competitive in South Dakota, which was once thought to be solid Obama territory.

Even though tomorrow's primaries in South Dakota and Montana mark the official end of the primary season, Clinton is reserving the right to fight on and is still touting her popular vote argument, which does not include the estimated results from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington caucuses. According to those estimations, Obama still leads by about 44,000 votes nationally.

But in the end, the popular vote does not really matter. Delegates do. By averaging the numbers to the right, Obama is about 44 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Obama will likely get 17 out of the 31 delegates up for grabs Tuesday, putting him about 27 delegates away from the nomination.

Only about 200 superdelegates have not endorsed a candidate yet, so if we include South Dakota and Montana, Clinton will need about 171 (86%) of them to reach 2,118. Obama only needs about 27 (14%).

And according to CBS, the majority of the 17
uncommitted superdelegates from the U.S. Senate plan to endorse Obama after tomorrow's primaries, as well as at least a dozen House members. And those two groups alone get him to 2,118.

The clock is running out for Hillary Clinton. The sooner she comes to terms with that and drops out, the stronger the party will be.

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