John Edwards, after four disappointing losses thus far, has finally decided to end his bid for the Democratic nomination and the presidency.
I was not surprised by this news--I have been expecting it since South Carolina. But he did it today, after the meaningless Florida results came in. I'm baffled by his timing.
Edwards' strategy from the start was to win in the early states using his message of "change" and helping the middle class. In short, he wanted to be the anti-Hillary candidate.
But Barack Obama took that away from him and Edwards quickly turned into an also-ran candidate. After the Iowa results came in, I knew he was a goner.
Now the big question is, who will this help? His supporters, unlike Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich's, make up a large bloc of the party--about 13% according to Realclearpolitics.com.
I really have no idea who this will help. On one hand, Edwards' constituency is mostly composed of white lower middle class, blue collar, and rural Democrats--who generally favor Hillary.
On the other hand, a lot of Edwards supporters dislike Hillary, and might flock to Obama as their last chance of having a non-Hillary nominee.
If I had to put money on it, I'd say it might help Obama a little bit more because he and Obama's messages have more in common than he and Hillary's. But I'm just going with my gut here.
Edwards has yet to endorse anyone (and I don't think he will), but just the mere incentive of an endorsement already has Hillary and Obama talking about poverty and battling big corporations, which is exactly what Edwards wants.
Keep an eye on the polls and see who his supporters are backing. It might make or break either Hillary or Obama on Super Tuesday.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
McCain Wins FL; Clinches Nomination
John McCain won the close contest in Florida tonight, and has effectively clinched the nomination. Here are the results.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 31%
3.) Giuliani 15%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 3%
I thought that Mitt Romney would have the edge with the emphasis on the economy, but it turned out that he and McCain were dead even on the issue according to Florida voters. His credentials on foreign policy put him over the top and gave him a comfortable victory tonight.
He won basically everywhere, and now, unofficially, has won the nomination. I think that he will sweep on Super Tuesday with Huckabee's support--who is looking just ripe for McCain's running-mate.
In addition, Rudy Giuliani, after a disappointing performance tonight, is endorsing McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, right before the CNN debate in Los Angeles.
With no opposition from Giuliani, McCain should win the northeast and California pretty handily, and should get help from Huckabee in the south.
Look for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be focusing on electability before Super Tuesday, and who can beat McCain in November.
Oh, and for those of you who are keeping track at home, I'm 7 for 11 with my predictions so far.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 36%
2.) Romney 31%
3.) Giuliani 15%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 3%
I thought that Mitt Romney would have the edge with the emphasis on the economy, but it turned out that he and McCain were dead even on the issue according to Florida voters. His credentials on foreign policy put him over the top and gave him a comfortable victory tonight.
He won basically everywhere, and now, unofficially, has won the nomination. I think that he will sweep on Super Tuesday with Huckabee's support--who is looking just ripe for McCain's running-mate.
In addition, Rudy Giuliani, after a disappointing performance tonight, is endorsing McCain tomorrow at the Reagan library in California, right before the CNN debate in Los Angeles.
With no opposition from Giuliani, McCain should win the northeast and California pretty handily, and should get help from Huckabee in the south.
Look for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to be focusing on electability before Super Tuesday, and who can beat McCain in November.
Oh, and for those of you who are keeping track at home, I'm 7 for 11 with my predictions so far.
Monday, January 28, 2008
More Endorsements
Right before the primaries go national, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have received big endorsements that should help them nationwide.
Hillary received the New York Times' endorsement, a newspaper that a lot of Democrats read and respect highly.
However, Obama countered that with an ever bigger endorsement. Ted Kennedy, arguably the most influential Democrat on the hill and nationwide, passionately endorsed him today. This should be a huge boost for Obama, especially among Latinos--who adore Kennedy--and liberals--who also adore Kennedy.
This is a big blow to the Clintons because they actively sought his endorsement as a member of the Democratic establishment.
Also, Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of JFK, endorsed Obama in a New York Times editorial entitled, "A President Like My Father." Representative Patrick Kennedy is also expected to endorse Obama today.
It seems that this string of endorsements is almost an insult to the Clintons because they have always been close with the Kennedys.
Hillary received the New York Times' endorsement, a newspaper that a lot of Democrats read and respect highly.
However, Obama countered that with an ever bigger endorsement. Ted Kennedy, arguably the most influential Democrat on the hill and nationwide, passionately endorsed him today. This should be a huge boost for Obama, especially among Latinos--who adore Kennedy--and liberals--who also adore Kennedy.
This is a big blow to the Clintons because they actively sought his endorsement as a member of the Democratic establishment.
Also, Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of JFK, endorsed Obama in a New York Times editorial entitled, "A President Like My Father." Representative Patrick Kennedy is also expected to endorse Obama today.
It seems that this string of endorsements is almost an insult to the Clintons because they have always been close with the Kennedys.
Florida Prediction (GOP)
Republicans:
1.) Romney 33%
2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%
I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:
1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.
This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.
John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.
2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.
3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.
4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.
Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)
1.) Romney 33%
2.) McCain 31%
3.) Giuliani 18%
4.) Huckabee 14%
5.) Paul 4%
6.) Hunter 0%
I have a feeling that this will be a very close race, but I think that Mitt Romney will win in Florida tomorrow night for these reasons:
1.) The economy is in shambles right now. There is massive panic about the stock market, the mortgage crisis, and growing fear of a recession.
This just happens to be Mitt Romney's favorite issue. As a business executive, and as the man responsible for turning around the financially doomed 2002 Winter Olympics, Floridians will see him as the best candidate to fix the economy.
John McCain knows this, so recently he's tried to take Florida's attention off of the economy, and onto Iraq, his strong suit. In the end, I think the voters will go with the economy, and thus, Romney.
2.) Florida is having a closed primary, meaning that independents won't be allowed to vote, which will hurt McCain.
3.) Money. Romney has outspent McCain by a ton in Florida, which means more air time, which means a more direct appeal to more voters in this very large state.
4.) Giuliani. He and McCain are battling over largely the same voting block: moderates and foreign policy conservative. I think that Giuliani will siphon off enough of those supporters and will cost McCain the victory.
Things to watch for:
-Exit polling on what is the most important issue to voters
-The Giuliani factor
-Results from absentee ballots (should benefit Romney and Giuliani)
Sunday, January 27, 2008
McCain, Romney Go Negative in FL
John McCain and Mitt Romney have been getting nasty in Florida as they go neck-and-neck in a seemingly two-way race in the state.
McCain attacked Romney in a brilliant political maneuver saying that he supported a timetable for getting out of Iraq, taking the focus off of the issue of the volatile economy, which is Romney's bread and butter issue.
By doing this, he has drawn Romney into a feud about national security and Iraq--issues where he thinks he is the stronger candidate.
Recent polls show that these two are virtually tied in Florida, and they are battling down to the last vote.
Florida governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain last night, which can only help McCain in this tight contest, even if it only gets him a few more votes. It's that close.
Although Romney does not have the Florida establishment support, he has a seemingly infinite money supply to make things happen. He is the only candidate left on the Republican side to have substantial amounts of money going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
But all of that aside, I think that the Florida results will come down to the economy vs. national security. If the voters choose the economy as their top concern, Romney will win. If they think that national security and Iraq are more important, it'll be McCain.
McCain attacked Romney in a brilliant political maneuver saying that he supported a timetable for getting out of Iraq, taking the focus off of the issue of the volatile economy, which is Romney's bread and butter issue.
By doing this, he has drawn Romney into a feud about national security and Iraq--issues where he thinks he is the stronger candidate.
Recent polls show that these two are virtually tied in Florida, and they are battling down to the last vote.
Florida governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain last night, which can only help McCain in this tight contest, even if it only gets him a few more votes. It's that close.
Although Romney does not have the Florida establishment support, he has a seemingly infinite money supply to make things happen. He is the only candidate left on the Republican side to have substantial amounts of money going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
But all of that aside, I think that the Florida results will come down to the economy vs. national security. If the voters choose the economy as their top concern, Romney will win. If they think that national security and Iraq are more important, it'll be McCain.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Obama Trounces Clinton in SC
South Carolina Democrats overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama today as he destroyed Hillary Clinton.
He won with 55% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton got 27%, and John Edwards got 18%.
Everyone expected Obama to beat Hillary, but not like this. He beat her by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
Hillary tried to lower expectations for herself in the days before the vote, but it obviously wasn't enough. She said that Obama had the vast support of blacks and that he would most likely win.
But he didn't just do well among blacks. He showed strong with whites and showed a wide range of support that catapulted him to this victory.
Edwards, a native son to South Carolina, did very poorly. South Carolina was considered to be his best shot because he was born here, and he won it in 2004. However, he said he will carry on to Super Tuesday to the dismay of Clinton and Obama. But he's toast.
I can't really say what impact this will have on Super Tuesday, but expect a bounce in the polls for Obama, especially in the south. But keep your eye on delegate-rich California, because I think that will decide who the nominee will be.
He won with 55% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton got 27%, and John Edwards got 18%.
Everyone expected Obama to beat Hillary, but not like this. He beat her by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
Hillary tried to lower expectations for herself in the days before the vote, but it obviously wasn't enough. She said that Obama had the vast support of blacks and that he would most likely win.
But he didn't just do well among blacks. He showed strong with whites and showed a wide range of support that catapulted him to this victory.
Edwards, a native son to South Carolina, did very poorly. South Carolina was considered to be his best shot because he was born here, and he won it in 2004. However, he said he will carry on to Super Tuesday to the dismay of Clinton and Obama. But he's toast.
I can't really say what impact this will have on Super Tuesday, but expect a bounce in the polls for Obama, especially in the south. But keep your eye on delegate-rich California, because I think that will decide who the nominee will be.
Friday, January 25, 2008
South Carolina Prediction (Dem)
Democrats:
1.) Obama 47%
2.) Clinton 38%
3.) Edwards 15%
This shouldn't be too close of a contest. Barack Obama will run away with the African American vote, and Hillary will do well with the whites.
John Edwards kind of gets ignored in this whole discussion, and I think most voters have already ruled him out as a viable option. If he doesn't reach 15%, expect him to consider dropping out.
Even if Obama wins, it won't help him all that much because he was expected to win. Hillary will spin it as the blacks coming out and supporting one of their own.
She will still have the advantage on Super Tuesday, even if she loses by a lot. She has been running much more of a national campaign than Obama and has the name recognition and the establishment behind her.
Something big would have to happen to make her the underdog going into February 5th.
1.) Obama 47%
2.) Clinton 38%
3.) Edwards 15%
This shouldn't be too close of a contest. Barack Obama will run away with the African American vote, and Hillary will do well with the whites.
John Edwards kind of gets ignored in this whole discussion, and I think most voters have already ruled him out as a viable option. If he doesn't reach 15%, expect him to consider dropping out.
Even if Obama wins, it won't help him all that much because he was expected to win. Hillary will spin it as the blacks coming out and supporting one of their own.
She will still have the advantage on Super Tuesday, even if she loses by a lot. She has been running much more of a national campaign than Obama and has the name recognition and the establishment behind her.
Something big would have to happen to make her the underdog going into February 5th.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Thompson And Kucinich Quit
Just a quick news update.
Fred Thompson announced Tuesday that he is ending his White House bid after a poor showing in the do-or-die state of South Carolina.
This will probably help Huckabee because Thompson siphoned away many evangelicals and social conservatives from Huckabee in South Carolina. But this won't have all too much impact on the race.
Also, Dennis Kucinich decided to end his long-shot candidacy for the Democratic nomination earlier today. Seeing as he had a very small (yet loyal) base among Democrats, this should have no impact on the contest.
Fred Thompson announced Tuesday that he is ending his White House bid after a poor showing in the do-or-die state of South Carolina.
This will probably help Huckabee because Thompson siphoned away many evangelicals and social conservatives from Huckabee in South Carolina. But this won't have all too much impact on the race.
Also, Dennis Kucinich decided to end his long-shot candidacy for the Democratic nomination earlier today. Seeing as he had a very small (yet loyal) base among Democrats, this should have no impact on the contest.
Clinton, McCain Emerge As Front-Runners
After a few recent primary wins, Hillary Clinton and John McCain have emerged as the front-runners of their respective parties.
Clinton won the Nevada caucuses Saturday after pulling off an upset in New Hampshire. Right now she is in excellent position to scoop up the nomination.
Right now, she is basically ceding South Carolina to Barack Obama, and is focusing on the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states of California, New York, and New Jersey.
Even if Obama manages to win South Carolina, he has not campaigned as much on a national scale. Plus, he doesn't have Bill on his side.
As of now, Clinton is in excellent position to carry New York and New Jersey--her home turf. Obama should win Illinois and the south.
That puts their delegate counts at about even. But then comes California, which has by far the most delegates and is viewed as a must-win state on both sides.
Most polls show Clinton up comfortably there, but things could change over the next two weeks as the campaigns get nastier.
California is especially important to Obama because the super delegates in most of the states voting that day will likely side with Clinton--the establishment candidate.
However, Obama has a secret weapon: John Edwards. If he shows poorly in South Carolina--as I think he will--he might drop out, meaning that most of his strong national base of supporters will flock to Obama on Super Tuesday.
But as of now, Clinton is in much better shape nationally than Obama.
On the Republican side, John McCain is now the man to beat. With his recent New Hampshire and South Carolina wins, he is in excellent position for Florida and Super Tuesday.
If he wins Florida, I think it's over. He'll win California, New Jersey, and other delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. He may even beat Giuliani in his home state.
Right now, McCain has the name recognition, the national stature, and the momentum to go all the way. The only person that I could see stopping him is Mitt Romney.
With the economy taking center stage, Romney's business experience could help him win plenty of delegates on Super Tuesday. And with his deep pockets, he could keep the race going far past Super Tuesday.
But McCain has been through this before, and is in it for the long-haul. Expect more direct attacks on McCain from Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee as the four-way race for Florida heats up.
We could very well see a Clinton vs. McCain general election if things don't change really really quickly.
Clinton won the Nevada caucuses Saturday after pulling off an upset in New Hampshire. Right now she is in excellent position to scoop up the nomination.
Right now, she is basically ceding South Carolina to Barack Obama, and is focusing on the delegate-rich Super Tuesday states of California, New York, and New Jersey.
Even if Obama manages to win South Carolina, he has not campaigned as much on a national scale. Plus, he doesn't have Bill on his side.
As of now, Clinton is in excellent position to carry New York and New Jersey--her home turf. Obama should win Illinois and the south.
That puts their delegate counts at about even. But then comes California, which has by far the most delegates and is viewed as a must-win state on both sides.
Most polls show Clinton up comfortably there, but things could change over the next two weeks as the campaigns get nastier.
California is especially important to Obama because the super delegates in most of the states voting that day will likely side with Clinton--the establishment candidate.
However, Obama has a secret weapon: John Edwards. If he shows poorly in South Carolina--as I think he will--he might drop out, meaning that most of his strong national base of supporters will flock to Obama on Super Tuesday.
But as of now, Clinton is in much better shape nationally than Obama.
On the Republican side, John McCain is now the man to beat. With his recent New Hampshire and South Carolina wins, he is in excellent position for Florida and Super Tuesday.
If he wins Florida, I think it's over. He'll win California, New Jersey, and other delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. He may even beat Giuliani in his home state.
Right now, McCain has the name recognition, the national stature, and the momentum to go all the way. The only person that I could see stopping him is Mitt Romney.
With the economy taking center stage, Romney's business experience could help him win plenty of delegates on Super Tuesday. And with his deep pockets, he could keep the race going far past Super Tuesday.
But McCain has been through this before, and is in it for the long-haul. Expect more direct attacks on McCain from Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee as the four-way race for Florida heats up.
We could very well see a Clinton vs. McCain general election if things don't change really really quickly.
Friday, January 18, 2008
South Carolina Prediction (GOP)
Here's my South Carolina Republican primary prediction.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%
This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.
McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.
However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.
He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.
McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.
Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.
This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.
Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.
Republicans:
1.) McCain 30%
2.) Huckabee 28%
3.) Thompson 18%
4.) Romney 15%
5.) Paul 5%
6.) Giuliani 4%
This one is a toughie. It's a lot harder to call than the Democratic primary.
McCain now has the support of the establishment that was against him in his crippling 2004 loss here. His war hero past and his experience in foreign policy will turn out a lot of veterans and other South Carolinians to vote for him.
However, I think that he will do poorly among evangelicals. That's where Mike Huckabee comes in.
He should rack up most of the evangelical vote--about 62% of the South Carolina Republican electorate--and should convert some people who are looking for a radical change to the tax system after all of this talk of recession.
McCain should edge out Huckabee, but expect it to be close. It could go either way.
Even though Romney is ceding South Carolina to his three competitors, he should finish in a distant fourth, right behind Fred Thompson.
This loss won't really affect the Romney campaign because he didn't really compete here. Thompson will drop out and probably endorse McCain. Although Huckabee won't win, he will finish close enough to first to battle on in Florida, and probably on Super Tuesday.
Should he win tomorrow, McCain will be in a good position in Florida and the delegate-rich states that vote on Super Tuesday.
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