Electile Dysfunction

House Recruitment Updates: 5/9

2009-05-09T15:14:00.006-04:00

CA-47: Republicans are trying to go where they have not (recently) gone before, and targeting Democratic-leaning districts such as Loretta Sanchez's. The NRCC has recruited state Assemblyman Van Tran--who is Vietnamese--to run against Sanchez, in this heavily Vietnamese district. But Tran got off to a bad start, as he kicked off his campaign in the wrong district--CA-46.

OR-04: Following along those lines, the GOP has recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken (R) to challenge Rep. Pete DeFazio (D). At this point, DeFazio does not look vulnerable, but he has not been seriously challenged in a long time (he ran unopposed in 2008). He is also reportedly considering running for governor, so the prospect of a tough challenger may nudge DeFazio in the direction of a gubernatorial run--and an open seat in this D+2 district would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

MN-06: Many Democrats are ready to pounce to get another go at ultra-conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in 2010, and two Democrats jumped in the race this week. The first is Elwyn Tinklenberg, the 2008 Democratic candidate who massively benefited financially from a series of inflammatory remarks that Bachmann made. The other Democrat that entered the race this week was Maureen Reed, the 2006 Independence Party candidate for Lieutenant Governor. The DCCC is not prepared to back either candidate, and expressed joy in the entries of both Democrats in the race against Bachmann.

CO-04: Republicans landed a credible challenger against vulnerable freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in the form of state House Minority Leader Cory Gardner. But he will not have the primary field to himself, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero has already entered the race.

ID-01: To the disappointment of the Idaho GOP, state Treasurer Ron Crane has opted out of a run against very vulnerable freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D). But the GOP has a deep bench in this dark red district, with former Rep. Bill Sali, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and state Sen. John McGee as potential candidates.

In Case You Missed It...

2009-05-03T00:15:00.002-04:00

Here's some notable 2010 election developments since I last posted in early April. Oh yeah, and I'm covering 2010 House election news too now:

PA-Sen: Six-term Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced that he will switch parties and run as a Democrat in 2010 after seeing abysmal polling that showed him losing by double digits to former Rep. Pat Toomey in the Republican primary. President Obama, Harry Reid, Bob Casey (Pennsylvania's other Democratic senator), and the rest of the Democratic establishment has lined up behind Specter. Democrat Joe Torsella, who announced his candidacy before Specter's switch, says he will stay in the race and Rep. Joe Sestak is considering jumping in the race. Meanwhile, the Republicans are trying to find someone more electable (i.e., moderate) to run against the ultra-conservative Toomey in the GOP primary. So far, they've come up with two names: Rep. Jim Gerlach and former Gov. Tom Ridge--both of whom would be strong recruits.

KY-Sen: After adamantly proclaiming that he would run for re-election in 2010 (despite the will of Senate Republicans), Sen. Jim Bunning (R) has hinted that he might retire next year. He reportedly encouraged Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee to run for his seat, almost anointing him as his successor. Bunning has been known to do unconventional things in the past, so we'll keep an eye out to see if he actually decides to step down.

NH-01: Republicans landed one of their first major recruits for 2010 in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who will be challenging sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He does have an advantage in that Manchester in the state's most populous city and he has remained relatively popular in his tenure as mayor--and he also benefits from the fact that Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable House Democrats. But Republicans have underestimated Shea-Porter in 2006 and 2008--both of which were Democratic wave elections--so they hope not to make the same mistake again. This district is the more Republican of New Hampshire's two House seats, yet it gave Barack Obama 53% of the vote in 2008.

DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle (R), a moderate, will face the strongest challenge he has ever had to face in his sixteen years as Delaware's lone representative from former Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Despite the district's Democratic lean, Castle has always won re-election by wide margins, but this time the 70-year-old will have a harder time. Castle has been considering running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010 or just retiring outright. If he does not run for re-election for whatever reason, this seat will be an easy pick-up in 2010 for the Democrats.

IL-10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R), another moderate, drew his first Democratic challenger--state Sen. Michael Bond. Kirk is considering running for Senate in 2010, and if he does, this seat will be an easy pick-up for the Democrats. But if he chooses to run for re-election, it is now guaranteed that he will face a tough challenger--perhaps a tougher challenge than he has faced in 2006 and 2008.

FL-10: The DCCC is touting State Sen. Charlie Justice as a top recruit against Rep. Bill Young (R), another House Republican who is considering retiring. Young has not faced serious competition in quite some time, and a strong candidate like Justice could nudge him in the direction of retirement. If he did retire, the open seat would be a toss-up and would create another opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.

AR-Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, has drawn her first Republican challenger in state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. Hendren is in his 70's, and is not expected to give Lincoln a scare, but other Republicans are considering jumping in the race. Lincoln is not incredibly popular back home, and given the right political environment and the right candidate, this race could become competitive.

AK: Palin Won't Challenge Murkowski

2009-04-08T12:44:00.006-04:00

Gov. Sarah Palin (R) announced that she will be holding a fundraiser for the re-election campaign of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)--ending speculation that she will challenge Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2010.

This essentially clears the path for Murkowski to win re-election and makes it so the Republican party will not have to deal with a media-frenzied, expensive and nasty primary next year.

Palin has not yet announced if she plans on running for re-election in 2010 as she gears up for the 2012 presidential race.

NY: Gillibrand Raises $2.3 Million

2009-04-06T12:50:00.005-04:00

In an email to her supporters, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announced that she has raised $2.3 million in the two months since she has been appointed.

Gillibrand is proving her mettle as a prodigious fundraiser with this impressive sum. And figures like these may prove to deter other Democrats, such as Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, from challenging Gillibrand in the primary--and it proves that taking her on won't be cheap.

But as of now, she is still not well-known in the state. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. So she clearly has some work to do to pick up these lagging name recognition numbers.

The poll also found that Gillibrand narrowly trails McCarthy in a Democratic primary match-up, 33% to 29%, but--much like Gillibrand--68% don't know enough about McCarthy to form an opinion of her.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R-NY) 40% to 28%.

FL: Mack Won't Run For Senate

2009-04-02T17:55:00.006-04:00

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) wrote a letter to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) today informing him that he will not be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, according to the Associated Press.

Crist is openly considering running for the seat next year instead of seeking re-election as governor, and Mack had been one the top Florida Republicans publicly taking a look at jumping in--but instead, he is throwing his full support behind Crist.

Mack wrote to Crist: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion -- regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate."

This further fuels the speculation that Crist is indeed planning on running for Senate rather than for another term in Tallahassee. The only Republican who might stand up to Crist in the GOP primary is former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, who formed an exploratory committee earlier this month. But he has said earlier that if Crist jumped in the race, he would probably run for governor.

Whether it is Rubio or somebody else, Crist--if he runs--will almost undoubtedly face some sort of opposition from the right in the Republican primary, as he has been getting a bit chummy with President Obama and the left of late.

Is Chris Dodd the New Jim Bunning?

2009-04-02T16:26:00.006-04:00

The results of a new Quinnipiac poll should be sending shivers down the spines of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and the DSCC. The survey finds Dodd in deep trouble for 2010, with only 33% of voters approving of the job he is doing and 58% disapproving--truly scary sign for a 30-year incumbent, especially one in a blue state like Connecticut.

A whopping 74% blamed Dodd for the AIG bonuses, while 54% don’t believe Dodd is honest and trustworthy. Dodd also only garners the support of half of his own party.

He also shows some poor numbers when matched up against some Republicans in the general election. He trails former Rep. Rob Simmons, the likely Republican nominee, by 16 points, 50-34. He also trails little-known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41-37 and former ambassador Tom Foley 43-35.

These terrible numbers can be attributed to the firestorm of criticism regarding his role in the AIG bonuses fiasco, his ties to Countrywide, and his failed 2008 presidential bid that seemed to piss off his constituents in Connecticut.

Because we are still in the midst of the financial crisis and Dodd plays a central role in the process of doling out money to banks and companies like AIG as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, we can be sure that these numbers aren't likely to improve much in the near future.

Thus, Dodd's position is starting to look more and more like Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY). Both are clearly the most endangered incumbents of their respective parties and have extremely high negatives. Both are from states that--given their political leanings--should give them inherent advantages for re-election. And in both cases, another candidate from their party would have a better shot of retaining the seat that they would.

The Republican establishment not-so-secretly tried to get Bunning to retire, and it turned into a nasty back-and-forth between Bunning and the leaders of his own party. Their next thought was to possibly support a primary opponent to Bunning, but the Senator threatened to sue the NRSC for going against their pledge of supporting Republican incumbents, turning into yet another nasty exchange. Finally, NRSC chairman John Cornyn publicly agreed to back Bunning in 2010, but the situation was handled very poorly by Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and there still appears to be bad blood between them and Bunning.

The Democrats can learn from the mistakes of the way that the GOP handled Bunning when trying to figure out what to do about Dodd. They have already said that they will not try to ask him to step down before 2010. Said one senior Democratic operative: “It’s up to Senator Dodd, there’s no indication that he’s willing to do that. We’re not going to have a Jim Bunning situation our hands."

Another option they might have to get around having Dodd run against someone like Simmons in 2010 is to primary him, presumably with a popular statewide official like state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, but Democratic insiders seem to think that there is no way Blumenthal would challenge Dodd in a primary.

Some other options for Democratic alternatives to Dodd can be found in the state's congressional delegation. Rep. John Larson would be unlikely to run because of his position in the House leadership, and Rep. Jim Himes has direct ties to the very financial world that has recently come under fire. But Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney could all be compelling alternatives.

But the only other option besides asking Dodd to step down and supporting a primary challenger that the DSCC has left--and the one they will most likely take--is to rally around the embattled Senator and hope that this is his point of rock bottom. His numbers have nowhere to go but up...right?

Anyway, I think that there is a good possibility that Dodd and Bunning--now indisputably the two most vulnerable incumbents of the 2010 cycle--will both lose their seats next November, effectively canceling each other's losses out. If that is the case, the Democrats will have to look elsewhere for their 60th seat.

P.S. I'm officially moving this race into the "Toss-Up" category.

Update: When asked if he might seek a new candidate, DSCC chairman Bob Menendez replied, "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."

No Winner Yet in NY-20

2009-04-01T17:18:00.008-04:00

After a long, bitterly fought, expensive special election campaign to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district--we still have no winner.

Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 65 votes, 77,344 to 77,279, with 100% of precincts reporting. That lead is merely symbolic at this point, because between 6,000 and 10,000 absentee and military ballots have yet to be counted, and probably won't be counted until at least April 13.

Neither side won or lost big here, but in this case a tie goes to the Democrats. But overall, maintaining the status quo is not good news for the Republicans, especially in a conservative upstate district in NY-20. They invested a lot of money into this race, and they really should have won back a district that should rightfully be theirs.

So neither side really gets to spin this their way--Republicans can't say that this is a sign of the people's rejections of Obama's policies, and Democrats can't say this is validation of their leadership.

This one isn't over and won't be for at least two weeks, but expect updates and analysis of the results of this race to be few and far between until then.

Update: Due to the carelessness of some election officials and some recounting, Scott Murphy's lead has shrunk to 13 votes. The Scorecard reports: "Three counties--Essex, Greene and Delaware--haven't re-canvassed the vote yet, and won't do so until later in the week." That could alter the vote total even more.

Hodes Leads Sununu in NH; Dodd Draws Second Challenger

2009-03-31T16:41:00.004-04:00

A new American Research Group poll out of New Hampshire shows Rep. Paul Hodes, the likely Democratic nominee, leading former Sen. John Sununu (R) 42% to 36%.

Further, Hodes leads Sununu 38% to 31% among independents--a tell-tale sign for the rest of the independently-minded (if not libertarian) state.

The Scorecard reports: "Sununu has not yet announced his intentions, but New Hampshire GOP operatives are skeptical he will run after losing his seat to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen last year. These numbers probably won’t encourage him."

Over in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D)--arguably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2010--drew a second challenger today in the form of state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R).

Caligiuri, a conservative, will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, a moderate, in the Republican primary. That will be no easy task, as the GOP establishment seems to be behind Simmons, believing that in a blue state like Connecticut, a moderate Republican will have a better shot at the seat rather than a conservative.

A Recap of NY-20

2009-03-30T16:39:00.004-04:00

Tuesday's special election in New York's 20th congressional district--for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D) old House seat--is all the buzz right now, so I thought I'd spend today recapping everyone on what the outlook is for Team Red and Team Blue going into tomorrow.

The race features Democrat Scott Murphy--a businessman and venture capitalist (i.e., rich guy)--squaring off against Republican Jim Tedisco--the state Assembly Minority Leader.

NY-20 is pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with the GOP having the slight edge in voter registration. The district has typically leaned slightly to the right, but Barack Obama carried the district 51% to 48% in 2008 and Gillibrand won her reelection bid by an impressive margin--showing that there are a significant number of cross-over Republicans.

But as is the case with all special elections, ground game and getting the base out to vote will be the deciding factors--factors which were originally thought would favor Tedisco.

Last month, Tedisco led by 12% in a Siena poll and was showing no signs of vulnerability. But then as the campaign went on, that all started to change. His biggest mistake was refusing to take a side regarding President Obama's stimulus package--which made him look like he had no backbone and was not willing to make tough decisions. He later came out against it.

Two weeks passed and he significantly dropped in another Siena poll, which showed that he now only led Murphy by 4%. Since then it's been nothing but good press for Murphy and bad press for Tedisco. Obama cut a radio ad for Murphy--getting him some positive media coverage in the district--while the Libertarian candidate was forced out of the race and endorsed Murphy, which was a slap in the face to Tedisco.

The most recent poll from Siena shows Murphy with a 4% lead over Tedisco, just outside the margin of error. Internal polls from both sides yielded similar results and show the race to be a complete toss-up.

So Tedisco's relatively strong advantage at the outset of this campaign has essentially evaporated leading up to election day, so much so that he revamped his entire campaign two weeks ago. And from the recent polling, it appears that undecided voters are breaking for Murphy.

But be wary with all of this poll analysis because it is notoriously difficult to poll accurately for special elections, mainly because of the unpredictable turnout.

Either way this thing turns out--and it really could go either way--the victorious party is going to spin the hell out of it. If Tedisco wins, the GOP will tout it as a rejection of Obama's policies, and how a district represented by a Democrat flipped to a Republican because the people no longer support him and his "big spending." If Murphy wins, the Democrats will trumpet it as support for Obama's presidency thus far.

But in reality, the Republican have much more to lose than the Democrats from this election.

The Republicans were expected to win this race, and it would be a terrible sign for a party who is already in the midst of a civil war and an identity crisis to suffer this big of a moral (and financial) defeat. Republicans would call for RNC chairman Michael Steele's head, and start pointing fingers at each other--further igniting the civil war within the party. Conservatives would blame Tedisco for being too moderate, and the bickering and scapegoating would self-perpetuate.

If Murphy loses, the Democrats lose a House seat--which they can afford to lose with their large majority--and they waste some money and let the Republican base cheer for a day. But since their party is currently stable and united around Obama, they won't go into panic mode, but will just use this race as a lesson for the 2010 midterms.

KY: A Democratic Proxy War's A-Brewin'

2009-03-29T13:07:00.005-04:00

It appears that Kentucky Democrats are already taking sides in what is likely to be a hotly contested primary to take on the highly vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) next year.

In a rather unsurprising move, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) endorsed his lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, for his 2010 Senate campaign--despite the fact that Mongiardo will likely face prominent opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Politico reports that state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) is set to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks. Conway has recently talked with two other Democrats who have been considering jumping in the race--state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler--and it appears that they will stay out of the race and line up behind him.

Thus, a proxy fight emerges between Beshear-Mongiardo and Conway-Luallen-Chandler. The uglier this fight gets, the better it is for Bunning, who will need all the help he can get to win what will be the toughest re-election challenge of his life.

MO: Carnahan Leading in GOP Internal Poll

2009-03-27T15:53:00.006-04:00

A new Republican internal poll commissioned by Wilson Research Strategies out of Missouri shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leading both of her potential Republican opponents--Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--for the state's open Senate seat in 2010. The poll was commissioned as Republican internal poll.

Carnahan leads Blunt 47% to 44%, and she leads Steelman 47% to 39%. The survey has a 4% margin of error. The poll also found that Blunt has very high negatives among Democrats and Independents, presumably from his partisan past as a House Republican leader.

On the Democratic side, Carnahan will likely not face any trouble in the primary, and with the announcement of her candidacy she immediately became the probable Democratic nominee.

On the Republican side, things won't be that simple. Blunt has already announced his candidacy and Steelman has shown signs that she will jump in as well, setting up a fierce and probably nasty GOP primary that could drive up the negatives and drain the cash of the eventual nominee.

The Republican establishment is lining up behind Blunt, while Steelman would run as an Washington outsider and a reformer. The two have already had nasty exchanges (Steelman called Blunt "another white guy in a suit") even though Steelman has not officially entered the contest.

The bloodier the fight is for the Republican nomination, the better the chances are that Robin Carnahan will be headed off to Washington in 2011.

CT: Dodd Edges Out Simmons in Poll

2009-03-26T17:34:00.005-04:00

A new Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is vulnerable in his 2010 re-election race, but his outlook is not as bleak as the recent negative headlines and controversies surrounding the Senator would indicate.

His favorable-unfavorable numbers clock in at 47-40, which is not great, but that fact that he is still in the black in the midst of all the this controversy is good news for Dodd.

When matched up against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) (who has already announced his candidacy and started taking shots at Dodd), Dodd edges him out 45% to 40%. Simmons' favorable-unfavorable clocks in at 41-18.

When matched up against the even lesser known state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd trounces him 51% to 30%.

Is this great news for the Dodd camp? Absolutely not. Being under 50% as a well-entrenched and long-standing incumbent is never good news.

But with the recent intense outlash against Dodd--who has the displeasure of being the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee in a time of bank failure--Team Dodd will take any kind of lead over someone like Simmons, who led Dodd in a poll earlier this month.

Thursday Catch-Up

2009-03-26T17:06:00.004-04:00

Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Sen. Arlen Specter 41% to 27% in a Republican primary match-up, with 28% of Republicans undecided. It's no surprise that Specter has already been jolting to the right.

Arkansas: A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) leading two potential Republican challengers, former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state Sen. Gilbert Baker. Lincoln leads Griffin 46-38 and leads Baker 48-37. However, these numbers are not all entirely encouraging for Lincoln, as she is under 50% in both contests and she only has a 45-40 approve-disapprove rating.

North Carolina: This is the last poll of this post, I promise. A new Civitas poll has state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R), 41% to 38%. But note that 57% of respondents have no opinion of Burr, so take this poll with a grain of salt.

Connecticut: CNBC host Larry Kudlow announced on his show that he will not be running against Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in 2010. Kudlow, who would have run as a Republican, might have been scared off by the fact that a top-tier Republican candidate--former Rep. Rob Simmons--has already jumped in the race. But Kudlow maintains that he never seriously entertained the possibility of running.

California: In what must be a sigh of relief to California Democrats, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in 2010. Said Schwarzenegger: "I am not running for anything, so no one could threaten me, because I'm not running for Senate, I'm not running for Congress, I'm not running for another term as governor." There you have it folks. Looks like the only Republican Boxer has to potentially worry about is former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and recent polls have shown that even she wouldn't be a threat.

NC: Burr Still Looks Vulnerable

2009-03-19T19:41:00.003-04:00

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows that incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) continues to look vulnerable as he gears up for his first re-election challenge in 2010.

The first bit of troubling numbers lie in his approval ratings. Only 35% of respondents approve of his performance while 32% disapprove and 33% have no opinion either way. That means one-third of North Carolina voters don't know enough about him to have any kind of opinion of him after more than four years in office. It's really bad if you have to spread awareness about yourself as an incumbent.

The next bit of troubling numbers come in the hypothetical general election match-ups. When matched up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), Burr leads 43% to 35%. When matched up against a generic Democratic opponent Burr fares worse, leading 42% to 38%.

Burr has consistently been under the 50% threshold in all of the polls released so far, a tell-tale sign of vulnerability and a chance for the Democrats to flip yet another southern seat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to get state Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper (D) to run, seeing him as their strongest challenger to Burr.

In an earlier PPP poll Cooper led Burr by 5 points, doing much better against the Senator than any other Democrat. So far Cooper has said that he is still considering jumping in the race, but he will wait a few more months before a final decision.

OH: Poll Shows Candidates With Low Name ID

2009-03-18T16:17:00.005-04:00

A new Quinnipiac poll out of Ohio shows that most voters are unfamiliar with the major contenders for the state's open Senate seat.

In a Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14%, with 52% undecided. Portman has already announced his candidacy, has the establishment support, and is widely expected to be the GOP nominee. Taylor has not made her intentions clear yet, but has not ruled out a run.

In a Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 18% to 14%, with 46% undecided. Both Fisher and Brunner have already formally announced their candidacies, setting up a competitive primary with lots of undecided voters left to win over.

Here are the head-to-head numbers:

Fisher--41%
Portman--33%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--31%

Brunner--39%
Portman--34%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--31%

It looks like either Democrat starts off with the slight advantage over either Republican, but it is still very very early and the name identification is low for all four of the aforementioned candidates.

67% of Ohioans don't know who Portman is, while over half of voters are not familiar with Fisher or Brunner. Clearly these candidates have a lot of room to work with to improve their numbers.

So until name identification shoots up for these three, we can basically ignore the majority of results of polls for this race.

Monday Recap

2009-03-16T19:48:00.005-04:00

Connecticut: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), emboldened by a recent poll that showed him running evenly with Sen. Chris Dodd (D), announced that he will be challenging the longtime incumbent in 2010. Simmons was undoubtedly the NRSC's top recruit to run against Dodd, and Simmons' entry in the race is a huge get for them. Dodd will now be one of the NRSC's top targets to take down in 2010. In other Connecticut Senate news, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) announced that he will back Dodd in 2010 even thought Dodd supported Ned Lamont--Lieberman's Democratic rival--in 2006.

New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she will not run for New Hampshire's open Senate seat in 2010. Shea-Porter was reportedly taking a serious look at the race and her candidacy was attracting much speculation. But now that she's out of the picture, it looks like Rep. Paul Hodes (D)--who has already announced his candidacy--is the likely Democratic nominee for the seat. No Republican candidates have emerged yet, but it appears as though the GOP's bench is pretty thin.

Louisiana: Sen. David Vitter (R)--who is plagued by his involvement in the 2007 DC Madam prostitution scandal--caught a big break this weekend when Family Research Council President Tony Perkins (R) announced that he would not challenge Vitter in the 2010 GOP primary and that he will be supporting the Senator. Perkins would have have been a formidable opponent with both his strong conservative bona fides and strong institutional support. He is the second Republican to back down from a primary challenge to Vitter in recent weeks as former Rep. John Cooksey withdrew his name from consideration earlier this month. Now only one big-name Republican--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne--is still considering challenging Vitter in the GOP primary.

California: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading two Republicans--Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina--by comfortable margins. Boxer leads Schwarzenegger 50-34 and she leads Fiorina 47-38. This poll confirms the results of a Field poll released last week which showed Boxer leading these two Republicans by similar margins.

Tuesday Rundown

2009-03-10T16:35:00.003-04:00

Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in some serious trouble in his 2010 bid for re-election. Dodd trails former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 43% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, while he fares better against other Republicans such as CNBC host Larry Kudlow and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Simmons appears to be leaning towards running against Dodd next year, spelling out trouble for the Senator. The only good news for Dodd in this poll is that his approval-disapproval rating jumped to 49-40 from a 41-48 rating in February.

Delaware: A new PPP poll has more bad news for Democrats as it shows that statewide Rep. Mike Castle (R) would lead state Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 44% to 36% in a hypothetical match-up for the open Senate seat once held by Beau's father, Joe. Neither candidate has announced their plans for 2010. So if Castle (who is moderate) ran, he could have a real shot of flipping the seat, but he is 71 years old and we have not yet heard whether or not he is seriously mulling a run, despite pleas from John Cornyn. If Castle passes on the race, we can be sure that the Democrats will hold on to this seat--as the GOP has a weak bench in Delaware outside of Castle.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) caught a big break today when conservative activist Peg Luksik (R) told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that she is planning on running against him in 2010. Now, this may seem like bad news for Specter on the surface as Luksik has had varying amounts of success in previous runs for statewide office. But given the fact that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R)--a fellow conservative--has all but declared his candidacy, Specter has a better chance of sneaking through the Republican primary with a plurality of moderate Republicans while Toomey and Luksik split the conservative vote. In Specter's mind, the more votes Luksik draws away from Toomey, the better.

NC: Shuler Won't Run Against Burr

2009-03-09T23:14:00.004-04:00

Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) has said that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in 2010, according the Associated Press.

Shuler is considered to be a conservative Democrat, and is a member of the Blue Dog coalition in the House. His center-right political leanings would have been appealing in a statewide Senate race, and he has good name recognition across the state and "broad support in his western North Carolina district," which is very conservative.

His choice to stay in the House must be a sigh of relief to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because Shuler's district would almost undoubtedly elect a Republican in his absence. He won re-election in 2008 year by a margin of 62% to 36%.

This move appears to free up a run for state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), and it appears at this point that he would face no serious primary challengers if he jumped in the race. His only other potentially competitive primary opponents were former state Treasurer Richard Moore (who has said he has no interest in the race) and Shuler.

But so far Cooper has stayed mum on the subject--but even if he passes on the race, the Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and they will certainly put up a strong candidate against the vulnerable Burr next year.

PA: Will Specter Switch Parties?

2009-03-08T14:36:00.004-04:00

The Hill has an interesting article on Sen. Arlen Specter's (R-PA) options for what will most likely be the political challenge of his life in his 2010 re-election bid.

Specter will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the Republican primary, a "conservative firebrand" that came within 7,000 votes of taking down Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and one that will likely prove an even bigger threat to Specter this time around. But last time, Specter had the support of President Bush, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and most of the Republican establishment. This time, the RNC is threatening to hold funds from him and the state Republicans' dissatisfaction with him has grown exponentially in recent years. This time, it looks like he is alone.

Specter has always drawn much of his support from independents, moderate Republicans and many of the state's Democrats--three groups that have fueled his re-election victories for decades. But many (hundreds of thousands) of the state's Independents and moderate Republicans have registered with the Democratic Party since the 2008 election, which hurts Specter in the closed Republican primary, in which only registered Republicans can vote. So the Republican electorate is much more conservative than it was in 2004. His buddies in the middle can't help him out in the primary.

So then, the prospect of Specter switching parties comes up. Pennsylvania law prohibits him from pulling a Lieberman--which is having the option of falling back and running as an independent should he lose in the primary.

But one option that he does have, according to this article, is to switch his party affiliation before the election and run either as an Independent or Democrat. He would probably have a better shot of beating Toomey--who is viewed as too right-wing for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania--if he ran as an Independent or Democrat (if he did that he would still have to win the Democratic nomination which is no easy feat).

But in a three-way race with Toomey as the GOP candidate, Specter as an Independent, and a Democrat running, the whole thing would become incredibly unpredictable.

I mean, it's a long shot. But it's still something that we can speculate about, because there is a chance that Specter is at least considering this right now. Stay tuned.

CA: Poll Shows That Boxer is Safe

2009-03-06T18:54:00.002-05:00

A new Field Poll out of California shows that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is safe for her 2010 reelection bid, no matter who were Republican challenger is.

The poll tested her against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R), as well as a hypothetical Republican primary including Schwarzenegger, Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and one primary match-up with just Fiorina and DeVore. Here are the numbers:

Boxer--54%
Schwarzenegger--30%

Boxer--55%
Fiorina--25%

Schwarzenegger--31%
Fiorina--24%
DeVore--9%

Fiorina--31%
DeVore--19%

Schwarzenegger has not shown any interest in the race and is considered unlikely to run, and Fiorina is undergoing treatment for breast cancer--making her entry in the race very unlikely.

But even if by some miracle one of those two Republicans jumps in the race, this poll confirms that Boxer would cruise to reelection anyway. DeVore--who has already officially announced his candidacy--won't be a threat at all to Boxer if he gets the nomination.

So barring any major gaffes or scandals in the next year and a half, it looks like Boxer will easily win a fourth term in the Senate.

PA: Toomey Will Run Against Specter

2009-03-05T22:45:00.008-05:00

Both conservatives and Democrats have something to celebrate tonight in Pennsylvania: former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) will run against Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican primary, the Allentown Morning Call reports.

"Pat's formal announcement will be forthcoming," said a GOP official close to Toomey.

So first let's tackle why conservatives are happy about this development. Arlen Specter has always been seen as a moderate-to-liberal Republican and a RINO (Republican In Name Only) since he was first elected to the Senate. He provided President Obama and Harry Reid the deciding cloture vote on the stimulus package, and has voted with Democrats on many occasions. In short: conservative despise him.

Pat Toomey, who now heads the conservative Club For Growth, is revered by the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Toomey narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, but Specter had the full support of then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and then-President Bush back then. This time around, Specter doesn't have too many buddies left to back him up--in fact, RNC chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold funds from his reelection campaign because of his support of the stimulus.

Toomey, as head of the Club For Growth--which is solely devoted to helping get conservative candidates elected--has a broad political network and a national support base that will make him flush with campaign cash, just ready and rearing to go after the Senator.

Specter was also in trouble before this whole Toomey thing started. A poll released last week showed that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter. If you're starting off with two-thirds of your own party against you, you're in some deep...stuff.

Now, let's get into why Democrats are cheering about Toomey's candidacy. Toomey will undoubtedly pose a very strong challenge to Specter in the primary, which will at the very least draw Specter to the right--making him less enticing to those independent voters who have been crucial in keeping him in office all these years, and an overall weaker general election candidate.

Their best case scenario is facing off against Toomey in the general election. Let's be honest here, Toomey is (probably) way too conservative for a bluish purple state like Pennsylvania. He would thus be much easier to defeat in the general election than a deeply entrenched incumbent with significant support from across the aisle. Also, whoever comes out with the GOP nomination will have severely depleted campaign funds and higher disapproval ratings, as is customary with competitive primary fights.

Also, other top-tier Democrats who are actively taking a look at the race--namely Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz and Auditor General Jack Wagner--might be more encouraged to run for the seat now that they know Specter will have to deal with a challenge from the right before he tries to re-sell himself in the general election.

The only thing that we can say for sure is that Specter's voting record in the Senate will take a sharp turn to the right over next year or so in order to make him seem more appealing to Republicans back home--yet another thing that conservatives can cheer about as a result of Toomey's candidacy.

LA: Poll Shows Vitter Could Be in Trouble

2009-03-05T22:05:00.005-05:00

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) could face a tough reelection battle in the Republican primary as well as the general election in 2010, a new Research 2000 poll shows.

The poll included hypothetical primary and general election match-ups with one Republican (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) and two Democrats (Rep. Charlie Melancon and former Rep. Don Cazayoux). Here are the numbers:

Vitter--43%
Dardenne--32%

Vitter--48%
Melancon--41%

Vitter--48%
Cazayoux--39%

Dardenne--49%
Melancon--40%

Dardenne--50%
Cazayoux--38%

Notice that Vitter is below 50% in all of his match-ups (even in his own party's primary), which is a tell-tale sign of vulnerability for any incumbent. Vitter's favorability ratings are also mediocre, with 49% viewing him favorably and 42% viewing him unfavorably.

Vitter holds a similar single-digit lead over both Democrats tested in the poll, but neither one is likely to run in 2010. Melancon disavowed any interest in running, while Cazayoux has not even been in the conversation for the most part. But given how similar their numbers are, we can assume that their share of the vote is for the generic Democratic candidate--whomever that may be. So if the Democrats can get their act together and nominate a credible candidate, they have a chance at taking Vitter down.

Meanwhile, Dardenne fares well against Vitter in the GOP primary, but still trails him by nine points, showing that Vitter still has a significant following with the conservative wing of the state's Republican Party. After all, Dardenne is seen as moderate compared to the right-wing Vitter.

But one other ultra-conservative Republican name that has been floating around as possible candidate, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, was not tested in the poll--so we don't really know how much of the conservative vote he would siphon off from Vitter.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot: porn star Stormy Daniels received 1% of the vote in the Republican primary. Finally some good news for you, Dave!

Thursday Afternoon Tidbits

2009-03-05T16:20:00.004-05:00

Florida: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) "has formed an exploratory committee to prepare running for the Senate, becoming the first credible Republican candidate to formally prepare for a campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Mel Martinez," the Scorecard reports. Of course, Rubio and other top Republicans considering running for the open seat--such as Reps. Connie Mack and Vern Buchanan--will wait until popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announces if he is running for the seat before making an official move of their own. Crist has said that he will not make his decision until May, but if he does jump into the Senate race, expect the primary field to clear for him--and expect Rubio, along with other top Florida Republicans, to run for governor.

Illinois: The Hill reports that former Commerce Secretary William Daley (D) is strongly leaning towards running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D) seat in 2010. Daley's brother is the mayor of Chicago, so he would instantly have establishment support--but he would also bear the burden of the Chicago machine. If he enters the race, he will face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and possibly Burris himself in the Democratic primary, so while he would start off as a front-runner, he would by no means be shoo-in to win the nomination. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) has also not yet ruled out a run, but she was more keen on the idea of running in a special election, which is looking less and less likely.

New York-B: Rep. Steve Israel is yet another downstate Democrat that is considering challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary, according to the New York Times. Israel joins Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, who are all openly considering bids for 2010.

Wednesday Night Updates

2009-03-04T22:33:00.007-05:00

Nevada: Former Rep. Jon Porter (R) has reportedly taken a new, high-paying job at a lobbying firm. Porter has often been mentioned as a potential challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, but this new gig may be a sign that Porter wants out of elected office for good (tip: Senate Guru)

Utah: State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) appears to be laying the foundation for a primary challenge to incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) next year. He met with fundraisers today in D.C. to discuss his fundraising capabilities--he has not formally announced his candidacy but will make a final decision soon. All of the buzz surrounding this race is in the GOP primary, as whoever goes on to win the nomination will undoubtedly go on to win the general election--this is Utah after all.

Florida: Bill Clinton will hold a second fundraiser for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is running for the open Senate seat in Florida. He will be squaring off against state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns in the Democratic primary. We are still waiting to hear from Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein on their plans for 2010--I missed this last week, but Klein said that he plans on running for reelection to his current seat at this point, but is leaving his options open for a Senate bid.

California/Wisconsin: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) approval ratings took nose dives this month in SurveyUSA's monthly 50-state tracking poll. Boxer looks like she's safe for her 2010 reelection bid unless Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) or businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) run against her, but their entries seem unlikely at this point (Schwarzenegger has shown no interest in the race, while Fiorina just underwent surgery for breast cancer). In Wisconsin, Feingold seems more vulnerable, and the Republican name that is floated around the most to challenge Feingold--up-and-comer Rep. Paul Ryan--might just be encouraged enough by these numbers to jump in the race.

Recruitment Updates: Pennsylvania and Louisiana

2009-03-04T15:47:00.006-05:00

In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Glen Meakem announced that he will not run against incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in 2010.

In his statement, Meakem made it clear that he does not agree with or support Specter, and that he is "confident the people of Pennsylvania will replace him in 2010." It looks like Meakem is deferring to former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who has shown renewed interest in challenging Specter in the GOP primary. Meakem is widely seen as the next strongest Republican challenger after Toomey.

In other news, Specter got his first official primary challenger yesterday in the form of Larry Murphy (R). Murphy challenged Specter in 1998, and received a solid 18% of the vote--not a bad starting block. Murphy will almost undoubtedly be overshadowed by a more high-profile Republican challenger like Toomey, but he might be able to siphon off enough conservative votes from Toomey to let Specter slide by with a win.

Over in Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon--the only Democratic member of Louisiana's House delegation--says that he probably won't run for Senate next year against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), who was involved in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.

“Never say never,” Melancon said, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.” Melancon was thought to be the DSCC's top choice to challenge Vitter.

The Democrats keep saying that they're going to bring the fight hard to Vitter because of his scandalous past, but they have yet to unite around one candidate, let alone a strong one.

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu's name is often brought up, but it is unlikely that Louisianans will send two Landrieus to represent them in the Senate (his sister Mary is the state's other Senator), and he has thus far shown no interest in running.

The other two oft-mentioned Democrats are businessmen Jim Bernhard and former Rep. Chris John--who ran against Vitter in 2004. But Bernhard is untested politically and John would not be as formidable of a candidate as he once was and has been out of the world of politics for six years--not to mention he has shown no interest in a rematch.

I've always been of the opinion that despite Vitter's past, he is a relatively safe incumbent--as long as he gets past the GOP primary. Louisiana is one of the few states that has been turning redder while the rest of the country turns bluer, and the Democrats have a weak bench.

This race is staying in the "Likely GOP" category barring any further developments. After all, this is Louisiana we're talking about.

Electile Dysfunction Can Now Project...

2009-03-03T21:29:00.009-05:00

...that Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley will go on to win the Democratic primary in the special election for Illinois' 5th Congressional District. I thought it would be state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz. Oh well.

Here are the numbers with 82% of the precincts reporting:

Quigley--23%
Fritchey--18%
Feigenholtz--16%
O'Connor--13%
Forys--10%

And it looks like Quigley will face off against Republican Rosanna Pulido in the special general election on April 7. Quigley will be heavily favored to win.

Here are the results from the Republican primary:

Pulido--25%
Hanson--20%
Anderson--20%
Bedell--16%

Matt Reichel will be the Green Party's nominee. Click here for minute-to-minute precinct results.

UPDATE (10:15): WBBM Radio reports that Fritchey and Feigenholtz have called Quigley to concede.

UPDATE (11:19): The AP has called the race for Quigley.

IL-05 Primary is Today

2009-03-03T18:37:00.010-05:00

I'm going to take a brief hiatus from my usual coverage of the 2010 Senate races for the special primary election taking placing today for the House seat vacated by now-Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in Illinois' 5th congressional district (I will do the same for the special elections in NY-20 and CA-32).

IL-05 is heavily Democratic, and whoever comes out as the Democratic nominee will likely win in the general election, which is taking place on April 7.

There are twelve Democrats vying for their party's nomination (the Chicago Tribune has a good rundown on all of them), while there are nearly two-dozen candidates running overall--combined from the Democratic, Republican, and Green Parties.

Polls close at 8 PM Eastern Time, and I'll report back here with the results later tonight.

For the record, my money is on state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz for the Democratic nomination (whom I'm sure you've all heard of...right?).

She has the backing of EMILY's List, the SEIU, and Rahm Emanuel's front lawn; she's the only major female candidate, which should help her out with women voters; she's the only Jewish candidate, which should help because there are a lot of Jews in the district; she's very liberal, which suits the district well; and she probably has the highest name recognition of all the candidates, as she has represented the area for a while.

But what do I know? Anything can happen when you have eleven candidates and low turnout.

Poll Watch: Pennsylvania and New York

2009-03-03T17:33:00.004-05:00

In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna poll shows that Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) could be in some serious trouble in his 2010 reelection bid--particularly in the Republican primary.

Specter is widely viewed as a moderate Republican, which would seem to fit the bill of Pennsylvania well. But many of the moderate Republican voters that have supported him in previous bids have either moved out of the state or have switched registration to the Democratic Party.

And that's significant because in Pennsylvania the primaries are closed (meaning that only registered members of the party can vote in their own primary) so Democrats and Independents can't vote in the Republican primary.

This poll shows that 53% of all Pennsylvanians--and 66% of Republicans--want someone to replace Specter after 2010, spelling trouble for him in the primary against a (much) more conservative candidate like former Rep. Pat Toomey--who almost defeated Specter in the 2004 Republican primary and just re-declared his interest in next year's race.

If Specter survives the primary, he is in good position to win in the general election, as 49% of Democrats said that they would back Specter. However, if a conservative like Toomey wins the GOP nomination, the Democratic nominee would have a much better shot of consolidating the Democratic race and taking the seat.

So in short, liberal Democrats should be cheering at the prospect of a Toomey candidacy, as long as they get a top-tier candidate of their own.

In New York, a new Marist poll shows a statistical dead heat between incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who has said that she would challenge Gillibrand in the 2010 primary over the issue of gun control.

The poll shows Gillibrand leading McCarthy 36% to 33%, which is in the margin of error. 50% of New Yorkers have no opinion either way of Gillibrand, while 18% say she is doing an excellent/good job and 32% say she is doing a fair/poor job.

Gillibrand has been positioning herself farther to the left on issues like gun control since she joined the Senate, in part to avoid a primary battle with someone like McCarthy.

In a general election match-up, Gillibrand trounces Rep. Peter King (R) by a margin of 49-28--as she has done in three previous polls against him. King would clearly be a weak general election candidate, even against someone as unknown/unpopular as Gillibrand.

It looks like the NRSC's only hope of picking up the seat in the 2010 special election lies with former Gov. George Pataki (R), although his entry in the race is seen as unlikely. In the poll, Gillibrand leads Pataki 45% to 41%.

LA: Cooksey Rules Out Run

2009-03-02T19:15:00.005-05:00

A few days after he said he was considering running against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in the 2010 Republican primary, former Rep. John Cooksey (R) announced that he will not be challenging Vitter.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter's position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him."

But Vitter's not off the hook for a primary challenger yet--Family Research Council President Tony Perkins told Politico that he was considering running against him. If Perkins did run, he would likely emphasize the issue of family values and social conservatism--and he would not let the public forget about Vitter's involvement in the 2007 D.C. Madam prostitution scandal.

IL: Schakowsky Would Run in a Special Election

2009-03-02T16:25:00.006-05:00

The Hill reports that Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) would jump in the Illinois Senate race for embattled Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) seat if there is a special election for the seat before 2010.

Schakowsky told The Hill that if the race is held on its scheduled date in November 2010, she will make decision in the next two months.

If she ran for the Senate seat in the November election, she would have to give up her House seat, which she may not think is worth the risk. However, if a special election is held before that time, she has nothing to lose.

If she did join the race--which is expected to draw many candidates on both sides--she would square off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (who officially announced that he would run for Burris' seat regardless of the date) and possibly Burris himself, who has not yet announced whether he will run for the seat outright in 2010, but just set up a campaign website.

On the Republican side, the two names that are attracting the most buzz--Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam--may be faced with the same dilemma as Schakowsky, as they may not want to run for the Senate seat if it means giving up their House seats.

My guess is that Burris won't resign and that there will be no special election--and that he'll run in the regularly scheduled 2010 election. So if that's the case, we'll see what Schakowsky, Kirk and Roskam decide to do.

PA: Toomey Reconsidering Run Against Specter

2009-03-02T12:37:00.008-05:00

GrassrootsPA and the Allentown Morning Call are reporting that former Rep. Pat Toomey is reconsidering challenging incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in the 2010 Republican primary.

In January, Toomey--who now heads the conservative Club For Growth--announced that he would not challenge Specter and was instead more focused on a 2010 gubernatorial bid. But Specter's support of President Obama's stimulus package puts a possible primary challenge "back on the table" for Toomey.

Both RNC chair Michael Steele and the chairman of the state Republican Party have threatened to support a conservative alternative to Specter in the GOP primary, and Toomey would fit that bill perfectly.

Businessman Glen Meakem and anti-abortion rights activist Peg Luksik are among other Republicans to Specter's right that are eying a challenge to Specter.

UPDATE: Toomey just released this statement: "As this disastrous recession worsens, I have become increasingly concerned about the future of our state and national economy. Unfortunately, the recent extraordinary response of the federal government – more corporate bailouts, unprecedented spending and debt, higher taxes – is likely to make things worse. I think we are on a dangerously wrong path."

He added: "Pennsylvanians want a US Senator focused on real and sustainable job creation that gets our economy growing again. That is why I am considering becoming a candidate for the US Senate."

Toomey's serious and eager. Watch out Arlen.

Mrs. Sebelius Goes to Washington

2009-03-01T11:02:00.003-05:00

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has reportedly accepted President Obama's offer to become his Secretary of Health and Human Services. This was not unexpected, as The New York Times reported ten days ago that she was the all-but-certain nominee.

Nevertheless, this is a big blow to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee--as they hoped that Sebelius would run for her state's open Senate seat in 2010. She was the Democrats' only hope of winning the seat (a Research 2000 poll even showed her leading the two Republican candidates--Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt--by double-digits), and now it is safe to say that the seat will stay in the GOP's hands.

Now, the August 3 primary between Moran and Tiahrt--which is expected to be highly competitive--will be "the de facto general election," as Taniel of Campaign Diaries puts it. I will have more on that primary battle in the months to come.

IL: Giannoulias Announces Run

2009-02-28T10:29:00.004-05:00

Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias plans to announce on Monday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL).

Giannoulias, a wealthy 32-year old son of Greek immigrants, is said to be the favorite of the Democratic establishment--particularly Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)--mainly because of his impressive fundraising abilities. Giannoulias is also personally close with Durbin and President Obama, which can only help him.

They Democratic leader might also like the fact that he poured $3 million of his own money in his 2006 bid for treasurer. They can only expect that he would pour in a lot more for a Senate run.

However, as is customary with nearly every Illinois politician, Giannoulias has baggage. The Hill points out that he has ties to Rod Blagojevich, Tony Rezko, and the Mafia. Yikes.

Republicans also may point to the Illinois's $9 billion budget deficit if Giannoulias is the nominee--as he is running hard on the fiscal responsibility angle.

The young treasurer is likely to face opposition in the Democratic primary. Burris has not made it clear if he plans to run for the seat outright in 2010, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky has refused to rule out a run and would be a formidable candidate. Former Commerce Secretary William Daley has also expressed interest in running for the nomination, and would receive the support of the Chicago political machine because his brother just happens to be mayor of Chicago.

I would keep an eye on those three over the next few months, and see if Giannoulias scares any of them away.

Friday Updates

2009-02-27T17:35:00.010-05:00

Illinois: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Commerce Secretary William Daley (D)--who is also the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley--is considering running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) Senate seat--regardless of whether the embattled Senator runs again for the seat. If Daley jumps in the race, he will likely face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet announced his candidacy but is rumored to be Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin's top pick for the post.

Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.

Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.

UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.

Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.

UT: Bennett is Safe

2009-02-26T17:16:00.004-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll confirms that Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) is firmly entrenched is his ruby red state of Utah, and will have an easy time being reelected in 2010.

The poll tested Bennett against Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT), legendary Jeopardy contestant Ken Jennings (D), Attorney David Leavitt (R), and state Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R). Here are the numbers:

Bennett--55%
Matheson--32%

Bennett--57%
Jennings--21%

Bennett--44%
Leavitt--23%

Bennett--46%
Shurtleff--20%

Bottom line? Bennett has nothing to worry about.

Oh, and Research 2000: you had to put Ken Jennings in there? Seriously? How about some mayors or former mayors of Salt Lake City next time?

TX: Poll Shows GOP Has Early Edge For Hutchinson's Seat

2009-02-26T15:19:00.010-05:00

A new PPP poll tested several possible match-ups for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (R-TX) Senate seat, which she is expected to resign from for a 2010 gubernatorial bid (thus sparking a special election).

The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:

White--37%
Dewhurst--42%

White--36%
Abbott--42%

White--36%
Shapiro--37%

Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%

Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%

Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%

This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.

The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.

The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.

Tuesday Recap

2009-02-25T16:05:00.004-05:00

Illinois: Yesterday, Roland Burris met with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin to discuss his future. Durbin suggested that Burris resign, but the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported that Burris strongly suggested that he would not resign due to the current controversies that surround him, but he also suggested that he would not run for the seat outright in 2010. Then, a Burris spokesman said that Burris had made no decisions about 2010. The saga continues...

Kentucky: NRSC chair John Cornyn said that the last week's meeting with state Senate President David Williams (R) was just a courtesy visit, and that he is not recruiting anyone to challenge the unpopular and vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in a primary. He also added:“As long as he is running, I will be supportive of him.” Bunning rejected this olive branch: “I don’t believe anything John Cornyn says. I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from, I guess, the first week of this current session of the Senate.” He then added this firecracker: “If they recruited someone to run in a primary against me, I would sue them because they are not following their bylaws.” So it looks like Bunning's going to be the GOP Senate nominee in Kentucky. The DSCC can start celebrating now.

Pennsylvania: RNC Chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold RNC funds from Sen. Arlen Specter (R) and is open to supporting more conservative primary challengers over Specter for his 2010 reelection bid--mainly because of his vote on the stimulus package. Then the chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party suggested that the state party might not support Specter in a contested primary. He is gonna face one hell of a primary challenge from the right yet again this election cycle.

KY: NRSC Setting Up Primary Challenge for Bunning?

2009-02-22T14:09:00.005-05:00

KYPolitics reports:

A political bombshell this weekend from several well-placed GOP sources, in Frankfort and Washington: State senate President David Williams met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday to discuss his interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning. Williams, in town for the National Governor's Association winter meeting, impressed GOP officials, who called his interest "serious."

It's no secret that NRSC chair John Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell don't want Bunning to run for reelection, but it is almost unheard of for a campaign committee to actively support another candidate over the incumbent in a primary.

Bunning is unpopular, but not so unpopular within his own party that he would automatically lose to someone like Williams in the GOP primary.

As the folks over at Swing State Project point out, Williams supported a tax increase on alcohol and tobacco, "something that wouldn't go over well with the GOP rank-and-file." Bunning, meanwhile, has pretty good conservative bona fides and might be hard to take down in the primary, much to the dismay of Senate Republicans.

Quinn Calls On Burris to Resign

2009-02-20T15:17:00.006-05:00

Politico reports:

CHICAGO -- Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn said Friday that Roland Burris should resign from the United States Senate and the vacancy should then be filled by a special election.

Quinn joins a chorus of state legislators and two Democratic House members in calling on Burris to resign, saying his Jan. 8 answers before a state legislative committee defied the public's trust about the appointment.

"At this time, we have a senator who has a cloud over his head," Quinn said.

Burris has so far remained defiant, saying he's done nothing wrong and said he'd fully cooperate with state and federal probes about the circumstances of his appointment by ousted former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The special election would take place within 115 days after Burris leaves office--assuming he does leave.

UPDATE: Burris's Chief of Staff resigned today, following the resignation of his spokesman yesterday. Clearly Burris' days are numbered in the Senate.

WA: Poll Shows Murray in Good Shape

2009-02-20T14:57:00.004-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) crushing two top potential Republican candidates--Rep. Dave Reichert and state Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna--in hypothetical general election match-ups. Here are the numbers:

Murray--53%
Reichert--40%

Murray--55%
McKenna--39%

The Scorecard reports: "Neither Republican is expected to run: Reichert isn’t likely to abandon his House seat for a tough challenge against Murray, while McKenna is eying a gubernatorial race in 2012."

Murray also holds strong favorable ratings, with 55% of respondents viewing her favorable while 40% view her unfavorably.

NY-B: Pataki For Senate?

2009-02-20T14:32:00.006-05:00

The Associated Press reports that Sen. John Cornyn, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, approached former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) this Tuesday about running for the Senate in 2010.

If he were to enter the race, Pataki would be challenging Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to succeed Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

It is clear that Cornyn prefers the possibility of a Pataki candidacy over the candidacy of Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has been trailing Gillibrand by double-digits in recent polling.

A Marist poll released that month found Gillibrand and Pataki in a statistical dead heat, with Gillibrand leading Pataki 44-42.

However, a 2010 Senate bid is seen as unlikely according to officials close to Pataki:

Former Rep. Thomas Reynolds, a close Pataki friend, told Gannett News Service that he spoke to Pataki for about 20 minutes Wednesday and the topic never came up.

"George Pataki as a mayor, as an assemblyman, as a senator and as a three-term governor, should he ever choose to re-enter public life, that's the most formidable Republican candidate we would have in the state," Reynolds said.

But Reynolds said Pataki, 63, of Garrison is enjoying the private sector as an attorney and spending time with his family, and "I just don't know that George Pataki wants to pursue a senatorial race."

Even if Pataki does run, there is no need for Democrats to panic. He left office in 2006 with a mediocre-to-low favorability rating, and might not have enough pull in New York anymore to defeat Gillibrand next year, given how blue the state has become.

Poll: Burr Leads Two Low-Profile Dems in NC

2009-02-19T20:10:00.006-05:00

Public Policy Polling has released their third poll of the 2010 North Carolina Senate race. Each poll pits incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against a different Democratic opponent in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.

This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.

Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.

Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.

MO: Blunt Announces Candidacy

2009-02-19T16:25:00.008-05:00

As expected, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)announced today that he will be running for Missouri's open Senate seat in 2010.

Blunt was until recently the House minority whip and is from one of Missouri's most prominent political families. He has the support of the GOP establishment in Missouri and Washington and will start out as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

He faces the prospect of a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who has long been critical of the Republican establishment and ran a reform-minded campaign for governor in 2008, losing in the primary. If she jumped in the race, things could easily turn ugly as she would paint herself as the "outsider" while depicting Blunt as the "ultra-partisan-Washington-loving-insider."

The primary will end in mid-August of 2010, so if it is bruising, as expected, the nominee will only have less than three months to recover in time for the general election.

Whoever comes out on top in the primary will likely face Missouri's Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--also a member of a prominent Missouri political family--in the general election, who announced her candidacy at the end of January. She is expected to face little competition in the Democratic primary.

Early head-to-head polls show that Blunt does better than Steelman when matched up against Carnahan, but that could be attributed to Blunt's superior name recognition.

We should know for sure whether Steelman will jump in the race this weekend, as she is expected to make an announcement at the annual Missouri Lincoln Day event in Kansas City this weekend. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: In an interview with Politico, Steelman said that she is "in the process of laying the groundwork that I need to get done before making an official announcement," and that she is "definitely strongly leaning towards doing this."

NYT: Obama Set to Pick Sebelius for HHS

2009-02-19T16:11:00.004-05:00

The New York Times is reporting that President Obama will appoint Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as his Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The Times reports that the only reason that the announcement has not been made official is that the administration wants to conduct as thorough a vetting process as possible to avoid another Tom Daschle-esque cabinet controversy.

Of course, if Sebelius is appointed, that would effectively eliminate the possibility that she would run for her state's open Senate seat in 2010. Early polling showed that she would have a double-digit lead over Rep. Jerry Moran and Rep. Todd Tiahrt--the two leading Republican candidates for the seat.

Sebelius was considered to be the only Democrat who could have any chance of putting the seat in the play for them. So if she joins Obama's cabinet, this race will be permanently fall in the "Safe GOP" category, and whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will be the next U.S. Senator from the state of Kansas.

OH: Two Top Democrats to Face Off in Primary

2009-02-19T15:42:00.005-05:00

On Tuesday, two of Ohio's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, setting up a contentious primary.

Another Democrat attracting a lot of Senate buzz, Rep. Tim Ryan, announced soon after that he would not run for the seat and that he would be endorsing Fisher. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has already said that he would back Fisher over Brunner in the Democratic primary, giving Fisher instantaneous establishment and financial support.

As far as electability is concerned, polls like this and this show that both candidates match up equally against Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee.

Now that two heavyweight Democrats have announced their candidacies, I think it is reasonably safe to say that none of the other members of the Ohio congressional delegation (Reps. Zack Space, Betty Sutton, Marcy Kaptur, etc.) will enter the race.

Competitive primaries always have the potential to leave the party's nominee bruised, so there is just reason for Democrats to have concern.

However, Taniel of Campaign Diaries makes the case that this kind of primary could potentially be a good thing for the Democrats, citing that the primary is in May--so there is plenty of time to recover in time for the general election--and it allows them to stay in the media spotlight while Portman will fall out of the public eye. He also compares this race to the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how it strengthened Obama's campaign in the long run. It's worth a read if you're interested.

Poll: Dorgan Strong Against Hoeven in North Dakota

2009-02-13T15:18:00.006-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll finds Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) holding up very well against in a hypothetical 2010 match-up against popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven.

Dorgan crushes Hoeven by 22 points, 57% to 35%, even though both men enjoy similarly strong approval ratings across nearly every demographic.

Hoeven is the only Republican who could even have a remote shot of taking down Dorgan, but he is widely thought to be very unlikely to run. Looking at numbers like these might further convince him to stay out of the race.

DE: O'Donnell Will Run

2009-02-13T14:05:00.003-05:00

Christine O'Donnell, the 2008 Republican nominee for Senate who lost to then-Sen. Joe Biden (as he concurrently ran for re-election to the Senate while he was on the Presidential ticket) by a margin of 65-35, has announced that she will run for the Senate again in 2010.

She will be running in the special election for Joe Biden's Senate seat, which is currently held by placeholder Ted Kaufman. State Attorney General Beau Biden--the Vice President's son--is expected to run on the Democratic side, and will face little to no opposition in the primary.

O'Donnell's entrance in the race decreases the likelihood that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)--the NRSC's top recruit to run for the seat--will jump in the race, as he will not likely want to tussle with someone like O'Donnell in the GOP primary.

O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker candidate than Castle, and if she is the Republican nominee facing off against Beau Biden, the Democrats should hold the seat with ease.

Gregg Withdraws Nomination, Announces He Won't Run for Reelection

2009-02-13T13:22:00.004-05:00

In a stunning unexpected move, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) withdrew his nomination to become President Obama's Commerce Secretary, citing "irresolvable conflicts" over the economic stimulus package and the 2010 census.

The move clearly caught the White House by surprise, and they issued this harsh statement while Obama was making a campaign-esque stop selling his stimulus package to the public:

Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart.

In a conference call later that night, Gregg indicated that he will not run for reelection to the Senate in 2010.

So all things considered, this whole fiasco didn't really have any major effects regarding 2010. This seat will still be open in 2010, Rep. Paul Hodes will still run for the seat on the Democratic side and still has the backing of the party establishment, and New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) might still make a go for it, but it is still unlikely.

Republicans still need to start their recruitment process in New Hampshire, which wouldn't have been any different had Gregg gone on to become Commerce Secretary--so they still need a candidate like former Sen. John Sununu or former Rep. Charlie Bass to make this race competitive.

The person that is perhaps most effected by Gregg's decision in Bonnie Newman, who was set to replace Gregg as a placeholder until 2010, and now won't get to be a Senator.

FL: Fate of Seat Lies With Crist

2009-02-13T12:19:00.005-05:00

A new Strategic Vision poll confirms that Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is only candidate in either party who could move this race into the safe column--and that if he wants the seat, it is his for the taking. If he decides to run for another term as governor, this race will sink into complete chaos, as none of the other potential candidates have any kind of statewide name recognition.

Republican Primary with Crist: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.

Republican Primary without Crist: If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.

Democratic Primary: The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.

General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.

	Crist	Mack	Buchanan	Bense	Rubio
Klein	58-24	32-27	24-28	22-27	18-29
Iorio	57-29	32-30	26-30	24-30	19-32
Meek	60-26	35-25	29-23	28-21	26-24
Gelber	58-27	33-27	23-20	27-25	17-22

Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:

Not only does Charlie Crist have huge leads (between 28% and 34%), he is also hovering around 58% - a high number that makes it hard to see how Democrats could defeat him. (That does not mean that Democrats should dread the prospect of his candidacy. For Crist to run for Senate would create a highly competitive gubernatorial election, and that would have huge consequences for redistricting and for next decade’s House races.)

Connie Mack looks to be a highly competitive competitor, as he beats all four Democrats - though one of the match-ups leaves him within the margin of error.

Both Pam Iorio and Ron Klein have relatively good numbers, as they edge out three of the five Republicans - including Rep. Vern Buchanan. Pam Iorio’s numbers are particularly encouraging, since she is the only Democrat to hold Mack within the margin of error and to hold Crist under… 30%.

Marco Rubio, Allen Bense and Dan Gelber: All are state legislators, and in a state as large as Florida it is not realistic to expect them to be known by a wide public - and it’s very hard to make much of their results.

Kendrick Meek is the only contender to lose every single one of his match-ups, and that is a particularly dreadful result given that two of his opponents are state legislators. Compared to fellow Rep. Ron Klein, for instance, Meek underperforms by 12% against Bense and 13% against Rubio! That he even loses against Marco Rubio should be particularly worrisome to Meek.

NH: Poll Shows No Clear Frontrunner

2009-02-11T16:02:00.006-05:00

A new PPP poll shows that there is no clear front-runner in the race to replace Sen. Bonnie Newman (R-NH) in 2010. Newman was appointed to replace Judd Gregg (R) after Gregg was tapped as President Obama's Commerce Secretary last week. Newman is not expected to run for the seat in 2010.

The poll pitted Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter against two Republicans, former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Charlie Bass. Here are the numbers:

Hodes--46%
Sununu--44%

Hodes--40%
Bass--37%

Shea-Porter--45%
Sununu--46%

Shea-Porter--42%
Bass--43%

Both Sununu and Bass run well against these two Democrats, but if both of them decide to pass on the race--Sununu has not shown any interest in the race and Bass will probably run for Hodes' House seat--the Republican bench gets very thin and they won't have much of a chance of retaining the seat.

On the Democratic side, Hodes has already announced his candidacy and the Democratic establishment is beginning to rally around him. The poll found that 42% of New Hampshire voters view Hodes favorably while 34% view him unfavorably.

Shea-Porter is still reportedly pondering a run, but might defer because of the support that Hodes is garnering. She has an approval rating of 43-40, and does slightly worse than Hodes against both potential Republican candidates.

MO: Talent is Out

2009-02-11T15:31:00.006-05:00

Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) announced yesterday that he will not be running for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's Senate seat in 2010.

“There are other qualified Republicans who are seriously investigating the race, and it is vital to prevent the kind of dissension that hurt my party’s ticket so greatly in 2008,” Talent said in a statement.

Now the Republican field has essentially come down to two candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Blunt, who would be the state GOP's establishment pick, is set to announce his candidacy very soon. Steelman, who would be the anti-establishment candidate, is thought very likely to enter the race.

Talent’s allusion to “other qualified Republicans” means that he's not ready to take a side yet, and has not yet counted out Steelman.

Blunt has been consolidating financial and GOP establishment support the past few weeks, and has been pressuring Talent not to challenge him in the primary. Steelman, in the meantime, has wasted no time in calling Blunt "an insider," while portraying herself as an "outsider."

The Scorecard points out: "Steelman ran unsuccessfully for governor last year, but has strong support from conservatives for her vocal criticism of earmarks and wasteful spending."

If Steelman enters the race, as expected, the Republican primary will likely turn very divisive and negative. The more the attacks escalate and the more advertisement money is spent in the primary, the happier Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the expected Democratic nominee--will be.

CT: Is Dodd Vulnerable?

2009-02-10T17:15:00.003-05:00

Per The Scorecard:

Could Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) be a sleeper target for Senate Republicans?

A new Quinnipiac poll shows the five-term Connecticut senator is highly vulnerable heading into his re-election next year. A 51 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they probably won’t be voting for him, with only 42 percent saying they’d likely support him.

Dogging Dodd is allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial. He also lost support after launching a quixotic presidential campaign, where he camped out in Iowa for several months.

A 56 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they were less likely to vote for him because of the mortgage scandal. And by a 54 to 24 percent margin, they didn’t buy Dodd’s explanation – that the low-interest loans were a “courtesy” – and want further details.

“Senator Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling,” said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating.”

On the fundraising front, Dodd only has $671,000 in his campaign account – significantly less than most vulnerable incumbents have on hand. But his connections as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee should allow him to quickly ramp up his fundraising in preparation for a tough race.

Republicans are already trying to recruit a credible challenger against Dodd, with former GOP congressman Rob Simmons heading the list. Simmons narrowly lost a Democratic-leaning House seat in 2006, and served as Connecticut’s Business Advocate after his defeat.

PA: Torsella Will Challenge Specter

2009-02-09T18:18:00.006-05:00

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has his first Democratic challenger for 2010, when he will be running for a sixth term.

The Times Leader reports:

Philadelphia civic leader Joe Torsella says he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Arlen Specter.

The 45-year-old Torsella is a former president of the National Constitution Center and the current chairman of the State Board of Education.

Torsella says he filed paperwork Monday to form a committee to raise and spend money, and that he will announce his candidacy in the weeks ahead.

Torsella last ran for public office in 2004 when he unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) for an open House seat in the Democratic primary. He may now face her in a rematch in 2010, as Schwartz is reportedly pondering a Senate run herself.

Specter, who is notoriously moderate (and one of three Republicans to vote for the economic stimulus package), was expecting to face the conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. But Toomey announced last month that he would not be challenging Specter, thus freeing Specter from swerving to the right, which would have made him more vulnerable in the general election in an increasingly blue state.

Whether the Democratic nominee is Torsella or Schwartz or someone else, Specter is narrowly favored to win reelection and head back to the Senate for a sixth term, but he is certainly no shoo-in--even without a serious primary challenger.

Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH

2009-02-09T15:37:00.004-05:00

In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.

If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.

The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.

In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.

Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.

Poll: Kansas Seat is Sebelius' For the Taking

2009-02-06T17:56:00.005-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) would start out as the strong favorite to win the state's open Senate seat in 2010.

Sebelius leads both announced Republican candidates, Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, by double-digits. She also has a strong 56-37 approval rating in a state that has is considered to be safely Republican and one that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in over 76 years.

The poll also pitted Moran and Tiahrt against each other in the GOP primary, with Tiahrt holding a narrow advantage, though a majority of Republican voters are undecided at this point.

Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Tiahrt--24%
Moran--19%

General Election
Sebelius--47%
Tiahrt--37%

Sebelius--48%
Moran--36%

Sebelius, who will be term-limited in 2010, would be the single most prized recruit in the nation for the DSCC. She is seen as not only the early favorite to win a Senate seat in conservative Kansas, but also as the only Democrat who could even make the race remotely competitive.

However, Sebelius has not yet expressed any interest in the race, and her name is being floated as a possible Secretary of Health and Human Services to replace Tom Daschle. But she has already withdrew her name from consideration for a cabinet post last year.

She is also reportedly interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Kansas, her alma mater, which would mean that she would not run for Senate.

We'll just have to wait and see what her next move is.

KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat

2009-02-05T17:40:00.005-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.

The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.

The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:

Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%

Bunning--46%
Conway--42%

Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%

Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%

Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%

Grayson--42%
Conway--41%

Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%

Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%

These results are bizarre because Bunning only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.

He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.

Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.

The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.

Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.

Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).

So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.

Poll: Dems Lead in Ohio Senate Race

2009-02-04T15:15:00.007-05:00

A new Quinnipiac poll tested several potential (and announced) candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Ohio to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).

Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%

Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%

General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%

Brunner--38%
Portman--28%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%

Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.

That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.

None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.

Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.

Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.

Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.

Norm Coleman May Not Be Done For After All

2009-02-03T18:14:00.008-05:00

From Political Wire:

Judges said that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount trial, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, which "would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt."

Al Franken (D), who holds a 225 vote lead in the race, had asked the judges to allow only 650 ballots that Norm Coleman (R) said he planned to challenge.

Is this thing ever going to end?

UPDATE: (from FiveThirtyEight.com)

The Court has also ruled, apparently, that the 4,800 absentee ballots Coleman wants to have counted will be held to a much higher burden of proof. Essentially, those ballots will be presumed to be guilty until proven innocent, and will have to be advocated for one at a time by the Coleman campaign, rather than being opened summarily and counted in bulk. This will make Coleman's rate of success very, very, very low, as opposed to merely very, very low. As Talking Points Memo notes, however, this process could take a very long time to complete and could continue to the delay the seating of a Senator Franken -- which may be Coleman's principal objective in the first place.

MO: Carnahan is In

2009-02-03T16:03:00.010-05:00

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).

This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."

Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.

If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.

NH: Newman Will Replace Gregg; Hodes Will Run

2009-02-03T15:34:00.011-05:00

As expected, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) will appoint Republican Bonnie Newman to fill Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-NH) seat in the Senate.

Newman, Gregg's former chief of staff, is a moderate Republican likened to Maine's Republican Senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Newman is not expected to run for a full term in 2010, thus creating an open seat opportunity for the Democrats and probably their best take-over prospect.

The Manchester Union Leader reports that Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) will announce his candidacy for the seat within the week. Hodes (above) is thought to be the strongest Democratic candidate and an odds-on favorite to win the nomination.

CNN notes that New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is still considering making a run for Gregg's seat, but has not made a decision yet and is keeping her options open. But I think it's unlikely that Shea-Porter will challenge Hodes in a primary, especially if Hodes begins to consolidate support in the state.

The state GOP will concentrate on recruiting former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) to make a political comeback, after handily losing his seat to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. If Sununu opts out, the Republican bench becomes very thin, with state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, former Rep. Charlie Bass and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta being the most logical second-tier candidates.

FL: Crist Considers Senate Bid

2009-02-02T17:33:00.008-05:00

Roll Call is reporting that Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, is "giving serious consideration to running for Senate." Crist, if he entered the race, would be running to replace the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) in 2010.

Crist already "has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn," so it looks like he's really seriously considering running. Also, the Democratic field is looking fairly weak now that the Democrats' top recruit, state CFO Alex Sink, opted out of running for the Senate seat.

Crist may be emboldened to run for the seat after looking at Research 2000's latest poll, which shows that he has astronomical favorables and that he would crush any primary and general election opposition.

The other top potential Republican contenders--namely former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack--are widely thought to be waiting for Crist to announce what he is doing before deciding their own plans for 2010.

Right now, I have this open Florida race categorized as a "Toss-Up", but if Crist entered the race it would quickly change to "Safe GOP." The seat is his for the taking. If he opts out, the Republican primary will be a free-for-all. The only question is: will he be willing to give up the governor's mansion so soon when he could easily be reelected to that position in the same year?

Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports that several Florida Republican operatives are saying that a Crist Senate run is unlikely, "but no one would close the door on the possibility."

Florida Republican party chairman Jim Greer said that Crist won't make any decisions until May.

NY-A: Schumer Might Run Unopposed

2009-02-02T17:15:00.006-05:00

It's been known for a while that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the third highest-ranked Democrat in the Senate, would not face any real opposition for his seat in 2010.

But with the New York's already feeble Republican Party focused on challenging newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 special election, it's looking more and more likely that Schumer could run unopposed.

In 2004, when Schumer was last up for reelection, the GOP's sacrificial lamb lost to Schumer 71% to 24%--the widest margin of defeat in the Empire State's history. He also already has a $10 million campaign war chest ready to go just in case.

If you were a New York Republican with anything to lose, would you want to challenge Schumer? Yeah, I didn't think so.

KS: Tiahrt is Officially In, Setting Up Primary Battle

2009-02-01T11:40:00.004-05:00

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) announced yesterday that he will be making a run for retiring Republican Sam Brownback's Senate seat in 2010. Tiahrt (left) has long been expected to enter the race, but yesterday was his officially announcement of his candidacy.

Awaiting him in the GOP primary is Rep. Jerry Moran, who announced his candidacy in late 2008. There is expected to be a huge battle between the two House colleagues, leading up to the August primary.

It is not surprising that two high profile Republicans would battle it out in the primary for this particular race, because the seat has gone Republican for the last 28 elections, dating back to 1936 (back when FDR was a spring chicken).

Only one poll of this primary has been released thus far, and it was an internal poll from Moran's camp that showed him leading Tiahrt 41% to 25% in a head-to-head primary match-up among Republican voters, with 34% undecided. This result is not surprising, as Moran is more well-known statewide than Tiahrt (and is also considered to be the slight favorite).

If the primary contest turns bitter and divisive, it could have a negative effect on the winner come the general election. If Tiahrt, who is seen as slightly more conservative than Moran, makes the primary into an ideological battle and tries to paint Moran as a moderate and prevails, moderate Republican voters might stay away from the polls or even back the Democratic nominee.

Of course, these damaging primary battle scenarios are contingent on whether the Democrats can recruit popular and moderate Gov. Kathleen Sebelius--who will be term-limited in 2010--to run. Sebelius is the only Democrat who can make this seat competitive, but if she does jump in, this race will be one of the most important and neck-and-neck Senate races in the country come 2010.

If Sebelius decides not to run, whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will become the next United States Senator from Kansas.

Gregg Nomination Could Come as Early as Monday

2009-01-31T14:46:00.009-05:00

An Obama administration official told ABC News that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) "is now the leading candidate for Commerce Secretary and could be announced as soon as Monday." Gregg would be the third Republican to join Obama's cabinet, following Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

By nominating Gregg, Obama is doing two things. He is (a) making his cabinet more bipartisan, which strengthens his image of of working with Republicans and (b) ensuring that New Hampshire's Democratic governor, John Lynch, gets to (presumably) appoint a fellow Democrat to fill Gregg's Senate seat, giving the Democrats 60 seats.

Gregg's friends think he would take the job if President Obama offers it, and that he has been actively considering it. Republicans on Capitol Hill and in New Hampshire are said to be putting fresh pressure on Gregg not to take the job if Gov. Lynch refuses to appoint a Republican, at least as a placeholder until 2010.

Joe McQuaid of the Manchester Union Leader said that appointing Gregg would be a great move, but only if a Republican replaced him. "Otherwise, the appointment would be seen through as Obama's clever move to gain a filibuster-proof Senate majority; and Gregg's acceptance would make his name mud in Republican circles in New Hampshire and beyond."

Gregg is up for reelection in 2010, and he is thought to be vulnerable to a challenge from one of New Hampshire's two Democratic congressmen. He would still be slightly favored to retain his seat, but it would be a tough reelection battle that he might not want to face in a state that has been trending strongly Democratic in recent years.

The fact that Gregg is considering taking the job so seriously is indication that he does not want to have to fight for his seat next year and that he does not look forward to being in the minority for the next 6-8 years. He also is probably thinking that eight years as Commerce Secretary could be a great segway into retirement after what would be 36 years in politics.

If he chooses to take the job, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and the rest of the Senate Republicans are going to be feeling a mix of fury and further powerlessness, as they will now no longer have the power to threaten a filibuster. We'll just have to see what happens Monday and the weeks to come. Stay tuned.

NV: Battle For Reid's Seat Begins

2009-01-30T16:35:00.006-05:00

Two days ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee aired its first television ad of the 2010 cycle against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), one of their top targets. The ad, called "Trillion," blasts him for his support of President Obama's $825 billion stimulus package and other instances of heavy spending. Here it is:

Today, the Service Employees International Union put out an ad defending Reid from the previous attack ad, called "Hard Work," praising Reid for working with President Obama on the same economic stimulus package, but obviously put in a different light:

The 2010 ad wars have officially begun, with more than 21 months to go before Election Day.

IL: Poll Shows Burris in Decent Position For 2010

2009-01-30T13:47:00.011-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) leading two potential challengers in a 2010 Democratic primary--Rep. Jan Schakowsky and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias--and two potential Republican general election opponents--Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam.

The poll also matches up Kirk and Roskam in a hypothetical Republican primary match-up, and pits Schakowsky and Giannoulias against the two Republicans as well. Here are the numbers:

Democratic Primary
Burris--26%
Schakowsky--12%
Giannoulias--11%

Republican Primary
Kirk--27%
Roskam--17%

General Election
Burris--37%
Kirk--30%

Burris--38%
Roskam--25%

Schakowsky--36%
Kirk--30%

Schakowsky--37%
Roskam--25%

Giannoulias--38%
Kirk--30%

Giannoulias--38%
Roskam--25%

These numbers show Burris in a relatively decent position for the 2010 elections, considering his strong and inevitable tie with Rod Blagojevich. His favorable/unfavorable rating is at a surprisingly high 35/35, while name recognition for the other two Democrats is very low, so there is room for them to improve as they become better known statewide.

The head-to-head general election match-ups show that Kirk is more electable than Roskam, but that any of the three Democrats would prevail over either Republican at this point. Most (78%) of the Illinois voters know enough about Kirk, the likely Republican nominee, to form an opinion of him, and many of them (41%) hold an unfavorable view of him, so excuses of lack of name recognition don't apply.

That said, someone like Kirk or Roskam could still unseat Burris. There is still a large percentage of undecided voters in all of the match-ups, so it is still very early to tell what kind of shape Burris will be in.

Democrats May Get 60 Senate Seats After All

2009-01-29T21:47:00.010-05:00

Roll Call reports that the Obama administration is considering appointing Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) to the position of commerce secretary. No decision has yet been made to fill the position, but the top two contenders are thought to be Gregg and Symantec CEO John Thompson.

This would fill a vacancy that has lingered since the previous appointee for the position, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, withdrew his nomination.

Of course, if Gregg is agrees to become commerce secretary, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) would likely appoint a Democrat to take his place. That would give the Democrats 60 seats and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, assuming Al Franken prevails in the Minnesota recount (which is more a matter of "when" than "if" at this point).

Republican Senate officials will do nothing short of begging him to not taking the job, because their party would be in the super minority and even more powerless than they are now. Already, a Republican operative wrote to the Huffington Post to say, "No way that Gregg takes it."

Even if Gregg does not decide to take the job, his seat will still likely be in danger in 2010, as Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter are eying the race and are thought to be potentially very strong candidates to unseat Gregg (with the emphasis on Hodes).

Update: Politico reports that Gregg has confirmed he is a candidate for the Commerce position.

“I am aware that my name is one of those being considered by the White House for Secretary of Commerce, and am honored to be considered, along with others, for the position,” he said in a statement. “Beyond that there is nothing more I can say at this time.”

There are more and more reports that Gov. Lynch, given his moderate-to-conservative politics, might appoint a Republican placeholder to the seat until the 2010 election to avoid controversy.

The LA Times suggests that Gregg would not give up his seat unless Lynch agrees to appoint a Republican to his seat. Meanwhile, Reuters quotes a Democratic source who says that Lynch would be “more likely to appoint a Republican.”

Nate Silver points out that appointing Gregg to the position of commerce secretary might not be all that good for the Democrats in the long-run and that getting 60 Senate seats this soon is overrated:

Moreover, if the Democrats actually get the 60th seat, it will be much harder for them to play the obstructionism card in 2010 -- and much easier, conversely, for the Republicans to play the divided government card.

Now, let's not be too contrarian here: if this happens, it is almost certainly a net gain for Democrats. But it might be relatively small one, given that:

1a) Gregg was voting with the Democrats reasonably often anyway;

1b) His replacement, conversely, would likely be someone fairly moderate who wouldn't vote with the Democrats 100% of the time;

2) Gregg, who has been a pretty reliable fiscal conservative, would presumably have at least some influence shaping policy from the Commerce Department;

3) The perceived benefit to the Democrats from getting a 60th seat is greater than the real one, increasing the risk that they will be seen as overreaching by the time that 2010 rolls around.

FL: Boyd, McCollum Not Running

2009-01-28T16:53:00.007-05:00

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) and state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R-FL) announced today that they will not be running for the open Senate seat in Florida in 2010.

Now that Boyd is out the of running, the remaining Democrats interested in the seat are Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber (who have both announced their candidacies), and Rep. Ron Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (who are still mulling runs).

On the Republican side, McCollum--who has lost two previous Senate bids--was thought to be one of the top three contenders for the nomination, but now it looks like there could be a battle between the other two: former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack. "Neither candidate has officially announced their candidacy, but both are preparing campaigns behind the scene," Politico reports.

CO: Poll Shows That Bennet is Still Largely Unknown

2009-01-27T19:41:00.009-05:00

Here's the results from the latest PPP poll, which pitted newly appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against two Republican rivals: former Gov. Bill Owens and former Rep. Tom Tancredo.

Bennet--41%
Owens--44%

Bennet--48%
Tancredo--39%

Although Bennet doesn't do so hot in this poll, you have to take into account the fact that nearly half of Colorado voters (45%) don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him, so we really shouldn't take the results of this poll too seriously.

Nevertheless, it seems like Owens is the GOP's best shot of unseating Bennet--but Owens has backed down from running for statewide office the last two election cycles, and is considered unlikely to run.

This poll confirmed the fact that Tancredo--despite his high profile--would be a very weak general election candidate. Bennet's numbers shot up from 41% to 48% when pitted against Tancredo, a clear sign that Colorado voters already hold a negative opinion of him and would reject him in the general election.

The poll did not pit Bennet against former US Attorney Troy Eid, who could potentially be a strong contender.

The two other frequently mentioned names on the Republican side, state Attorney Gen. John Suthers and former Rep. Scott McInnis, took themselves out of the running yesterday.

To sum up:

The bottom line? Bennet has a lot of work to do to introduce himself to the voters of the state. But overall the state's blueward trend makes it appear he is in a strong position for reelection, and the GOP will really have to recruit a top tier challenger to knock him off.

CO: Attorney Gen. Suthers Won't Seek Seat

2009-01-26T17:38:00.019-05:00

Colorado Attorney General John Suthers (R) pulled himself out of the race to challenge newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in 2010 by announcing that he will seek reelection to his current position.

Suthers is the sole Republican statewide office holder and was widely thought to be the GOP's top recruit to challenge Bennet, who is (or was) thought to be relatively vulnerable.

Now that Suthers is out of the conversation, the list of potential Republicans to enter the race looks thin. The list includes:

--Former Gov. Bill Owens (who has shied away from running for public office again since his term as governor ended)

--Former US Attorney Troy Eid (who was going to run for Attorney General but is now backing out because of Suthers' decision to run for reelection; he might reconsider a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Scott McInnis (who is reportedly more interested in a 2010 gubernatorial run rather than a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (who is unpopular, divisive, and alienates Latinos with his borderline reactionary views on immigration and would be the Democrats' dream opponent)

--Former football star John Elway (has never held public office and might be seen as a joke of a candidate)

Yeah, it's slim pickings for NRSC chairman John Cornyn in this race. I think that it's highly unlikely that Owens and McInnis will run, and Tancredo might run but would have a ton of trouble being elected statewide. And John Elway is John Elway.

So if I had to guess, I'd say that Troy Eid will be the Republican nominee. While Eid is qualified and might pose somewhat of a challenge to Bennet, he is certainly not the NRSC's dream candidate and would still likely fall short of victory.

With Suthers gone and the Republican bench looking even weaker, it appears as though Michael Bennet just dodged a political bullet.

KY: Mongiardo to Challenge Bunning

2009-01-26T14:41:00.005-05:00

Kentucky Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is the first Democrat to formally announce that he will be challenging the unpopular and underfunded incumbent, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), in 2010.

Mongiardo was the Democratic nominee that faced off against Bunning in 2004, but back then he was only a little-known state senator. No one thought the race was going to be competitive, but despite the lack of attention and funds from the DSCC and being vastly outspent by Bunning, Mongiardo just barely lost to him, 51% to 49%.

Now Mongiardo, if he is the Democratic nominee, is much more well-known and has a higher profile in the state as the lieutenant governor, and he will receive plenty of cash and support from the state and national party, including that of the DSCC.

In a complete reversal from 2004, Bunning seems to be the one who is underfunded. He filed a campaign finance report last week which listed only $27,357 in campaign contributions between October 1 and December 1, and showed that he only had $150,000 on hand. As the Cincinnati Enquirer notes, “the next closest Republican had about $900,000 in the bank." Bunning has said that he will need to raise $10 million to win reelection. Yikes.

For those of us that have been following the 2010 Senate elections closely, it is clear that Bunning is the most vulnerable incumbent in next year's election. So vulnerable in fact that national Republicans have been urging him not to run for reelection, thinking that they will have a better shot of holding the seat with another Republican on the ticket. It is very rare that a party wants one of its incumbents to quit, but Bunning is so politically weak that he is an exception.

Shortly after the 2008 elections, Bunning announced that he would run for reelection in 2010 but few are holding him to his word, given his age (he will be 79 on Election Day) and his awful fundraising. If he doesn't retire, Republicans should field a very strong primary challenger to take him down. If that fails, they should be very very worried.

But whether he runs or retires, Mongiardo's candidacy ensures that this race will be one of the most competitive in the country, and arguably the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity.

That said, Mongiardo could face fierce competition in the Democratic primary, as state Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen have been mulling a run. Rep. Ben Chandler has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but is considered less likely to run than the other three Democrats.

PA: Toomey Won't Challenge Specter

2009-01-23T22:42:00.008-05:00

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) has decided against a repeat run against incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in a 2010 GOP primary, and is instead reported to be more interested in the governor's race taking place that year, according to the Morning Call.

This is great news for Specter, who already faces a tough reelection battle even without the prospect of a bruising primary battle with Toomey, who is much more conservative than Specter and would have run competitively with him had he ran.

Now, Specter won't have to veer to the right to appease the conservative base of his party to win the GOP nomination. He can now just focus on winning over the moderate Pennsylvania voters who have kept him in the Senate for the last 28 years.

Toomey, who is the current president of the conservative organization Club For Growth, narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 GOP primary, and was Specter's only real reason to worry within his own party this time around. All Specter has to worry about now is who comes out of the Democratic primary, which should be a load off of his mind.

KY: GOP Urges Bunning to Retire

2009-01-23T19:57:00.007-05:00

Unnamed Republican sources are "privately urging" Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) to retire at the end of his term in 2010 amid concerns that he would have a very hard time winning reelection.

Politico reports:

Some Republicans are privately urging Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) to step down at the end of his term amid growing concerns that he can’t win reelection in 2010.

According to two GOP sources, leading Republican fundraisers in Kentucky are hesitant to raise money for Bunning and have told him he should not seek a third term.

“They want him to realize he’s had a good run but that it’s time to move on. These people want to win, and they realize he could easily lose this seat,” said one leading Kentucky Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

While national campaign officials usually urge their incumbents to remain in office — recognizing it’s tougher to defend an open seat — even leading Republicans seem unconvinced Bunning can win reelection.

Asked if Bunning was the best candidate to run or if there were better GOP candidates, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas demurred: “I don’t know. I think it’s really up to Sen. Bunning."

In a statement, Bunning said:

“It’s a free country. Anybody can run for anything they choose. I am gearing up, and I look forward to the challenge of taking on whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in May of 2010."

NY-B: Gillibrand Chosen to Replace Clinton

2009-01-23T15:32:00.018-05:00

As expected, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) announced Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) as the new US Senator from New York in a press conference earlier this afternoon.

However, the most peculiar thing about the press conference was the presence of former Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) just to Gillibrand's right (see picture), who was defeated by Chuck Schumer in the 1998 senatorial race.

This presence shows both Gillibrand's potential crossover appeal, given her centrist-to-conservative views on many issues, but it also symbolizes that potential primary trouble she may face from the progressive wing of her own party in 2010.

As I noted yesterday, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already pledged that she would challenge Gillibrand herself if no one else does because of Gillibrand's position on gun control.

In Gillibrand's acceptance speech this afternoon, she seemed to notice that she would not have a honeymoon period and that she might be in danger in 2010 by explicitly noting that she looked forward to working together with McCarthy in her effort to implement stronger background check legislation in gun sales.

This was a quick turnaround for Gillibrand, who received a 100% rating from the NRA in her two years as a congresswoman. She also seemed to have a similar change in view on the issue of gay marriage, in which she "assured the state's leading gay rights group yesterday that she backs same-sex marriage, and shows no other conservative leanings," according to Ben Smith.

So we don't really know what Gillibrand's true views are, but it is becoming increasingly clear that she is adapting to a broader and more liberal constituency representing the entire state than when she was representing her conservative congressional district in upstate New York.

Gillibrand, who is 42, is young enough to hold the seat for a very long time (unless she is unseated). She is considered to be one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, and is a member of the Blue Dog caucus. Smith notes that, "She's voted to the right on issues like the bailout, the balanced budget amendment, lowering the gas tax, and supporting the war."

Politico's Josh Kraushaar has compiled a list of pros and cons of picking Gillibrand as she prepares for a competitive race in 2010, which will likely be against Rep. Peter King (R-NY). Here's the gist of it:

Pros
-She has proven crossover appeal, representing a conservative congressional district upstate
-She's a prolific fundraiser
-She fits the mold of all the characteristics that Paterson was looking for in the Senator: a woman, someone from upstate, and someone that would be well-received by both the Clinton and Schumer camps

Cons
-She has had a privileged background and thus might have a hard time appealing to working-class voters
-Because of her conservative track record, she will likely be challenged by someone from the progressive wing of her party, setting up a potentially damaging primary
-Democrats have a weak bench in her district and there's a very good possibility that they will lose the seat to the GOP, which has a stronger bench to choose from

In an unexpected move, King praised Gillibrand and announced that he would wait until the summer to decide whether he would run against her. President Obama joined King in praising Gillibrand, but no public reaction has come from McCarthy yet.

Gillibrand is expected to be sworn in to the Senate by Vice President Biden on Monday.

NY-B: Paterson Will Announce Pick Friday

2009-01-22T20:16:00.005-05:00

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will announce his pick to replace Hillary Clinton--who has just been confirmed as Secretary of State--at noon tomorrow, according to CQ Politics.

At this point the two front-runners for the seat appear to be state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, but more signs are pointing in the direction of Gillibrand as she now appears to be the favorite to take up Clinton's seat.

However, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already said that if Gillibrand is the appointee, she would run against her in the primaries for the 2010 special election, citing her support from the National Rifle Association and her unabashed support for gun owners' rights.

"To have a Senator representing the NRA from New York, that would be wrong," McCarthy told the New York Times. "If it comes down to that, I will primary in 2010." I don't think this threat will affect Paterson's decision, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

NC-Sen Poll

2009-01-22T14:21:00.007-05:00

Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the 2010 North Carolina Senate race yesterday, pitting incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against Rep. Heath Shuler (D) in a hypothetical match-up. Here are the results:

Burr--39%
Shuler--28%
No Opinion--33%

I showed the "No Opinion" percentage this time because it seemed significant that so many North Carolina voters haven't made up their minds about either of the men.

The poll also pegs Burr's approve-disapprove rating at 33-30 and Shuler's approve-disapprove rating at 21-21. These are weak numbers for both men, but it does show that most people have no opinion either way about either of these men.

Shuler is among three Democrats that are widely mentioned as potential challengers to Burr, with the other two being state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.

A PPP poll released last month found Burr trailing Cooper 39-34, while a Research 2000 poll found Burr leading Cooper 45-43 and Moore 46-40.

All three of these men could potentially pose a strong challenge to Burr in the general election, and it seems as though the Democrats have a strong bench and many options with which to work with.

NY-B: Kennedy Withdraws Senate Bid

2009-01-21T20:35:00.008-05:00

The New York Times is reporting the stunning development that Caroline Kennedy "has withdrawn [herself] from consideration for the vacant Senate seat in New York, according to a person told of her decision."

Kennedy was always thought to be Democratic Gov. David Paterson's top pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, who was confirmed today as Secretary of State. The New York Post even reported last week that she was going to be his pick.

Kennedy reportedly called Paterson late today to announce that she was withdrawing her name from consideration, citing her uncle Sen. Ted Kennedy's health problems. However, the Post is reporting that Paterson had already informed Kennedy that he would not pick her, and that her formal withdrawal was primarily just to save face.

Earlier polls show that New York voters prefer state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to fill the position, but it is not known whether these polls have swayed Paterson's decision for the appointment. Paterson has also recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Paterson is expected to announce his selection this Saturday. Stay tuned.

FL: Poll Shows No Clear Favorite in Either Party

2009-01-21T18:14:00.007-05:00

A new poll from Quinnipiac confirms that the Florida Senate race remains a wide-open contest:

The decision by CFO Sink to walk away from the Senate race leaves a wide open scramble for the Democrat nomination. Because the survey was in the field when she announced her decision not to run, she was left on the list from which respondents were asked to choose for the rest of the polling. In a trial heat among Democratic candidates, she gets 15 percent, while U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek has 13 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Ron Klein at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd with 8 percent and State Sen. Dan Gelber at 1 percent. Even with a ballot that includes Sink, 54 percent of registered Democrats say they do not have a candidate.

In the Republican trial heat, McCollum gets 22 percent to Mack's 21 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, 6 percent for former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, 2 percent for former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, and 40 percent undecided.

Its far too early to take these numbers very seriously, because in the end the nominees of both parties will be the ones who can raise enough money and get the most support to run the best statewide race. But as of right now, we have no idea who is favored to be the nominee of either party will be, let alone who is favored in the general election.

Poll: Ohio Senate Race Wide Open

2009-01-21T17:06:00.005-05:00

On Monday, Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the 2010 Ohio Senate race. The poll pits the likely Republican nominee, Rob Portman, against three potential Democratic opponents in a hypothetical match-up: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, Rep. Tim Ryan and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Here are the numbers:

Portman--41%
Fisher--39%

Portman--40%
Ryan--34%

Portman--42%
Brunner--34%

None of these candidates are universally known statewide, so all of them potentially have the opportunity to improve their numbers. But their favorability ratings give us a good idea of how Ohio voters perceive them thus far.

Portman has a favorable rating of 28% with 23% having an unfavorable opinion of him, while Fisher's numbers are 40-32, Ryan's are 26-27, and Brunner's are 34-36.

Based on these numbers, Portman is the least known of the the four potential candidates yet he leads all three of the Democrats--however, all of his leads were narrow and he barely reaches to 40% mark in each of the match-ups.

Portman has already officially announced his candidacy, but we are still waiting on Fisher, Ryan, Brunner, and others such as Reps. Zack Space and Betty Sutton to announce whether or not they are going to be running for this seat in 2010.

This poll confirms the fact that this race will be highly competitive no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and I will be keeping a close eye on it in the months to come.

Poll: Leahy Would Beat Douglas

2009-01-20T16:59:00.006-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll pitted Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) against Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT) in a hypothetical match-up for Leahy's seat, which is up for election in 2010.

The poll shows that Leahy would handily defeat Douglas, 58% to 36%. Douglas still retains a decent approval rating of 52%, but it pales in comparison to Leahy's approval rating of 63%.

Douglas is widely thought to be the only Republican who could pose any sort of challenge to Leahy, but this poll shows that even if Douglas were to run, Leahy would barely break a sweat. Also, Douglas is up for reelection in 2010 and has not yet indicated any interest in running.

FL: Sink Rules Out Run

2009-01-20T16:25:00.007-05:00

In a major blow to the DSCC, state CFO Alex Sink (D) announced Friday morning that she would not run for Florida's open Senate seat in 2010. In her announcement she announced that she had ruled out a run for governor and she will seek reelection for her current position.

Sink clearly would have been the strongest candidate on the Democratic side, and Florida Republicans were openly afraid of her potential candidacy, especially after Jeb Bush announced that he wouldn't run. She was thought to be the only Democrat who could have cleared a divisive primary field. Now it looks like the race is wide open on both sides.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber have already announced their candidacies, setting up a primary challenge--but potential candidates like Reps. Ron Klein and Allen Boyd (who says he's very close to making a decision about running) are still considering bids.

On the Republican side, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Attorney General Bill McCollum are the most often mentioned as potential candidates--and now they might be more likely to run now that Sink has ruled out a run.

IL: Schakowsky Open to Challenging Burris in 2010

2009-01-15T17:21:00.005-05:00

Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL), just hours after he was sworn in, found out that he may already be facing opposition in the 2010 Democratic Senate primary, if he chooses to run.

From Politico:

Rep. Janice Schakowsky (D-Ill.) is open to running against Roland Burris in 2010, potentially setting up a contested Democratic primary for the scandal-tainted Illinois Senate seat.

Schakowsky, leaving the Burris swearing-in ceremony Thursday, told Politico that "time will tell" whether she'd run or not. Asked whether she was ruling a run in or out, she said, "No."

Burris has not said whether he'd run in 2010, and some Democrats are reluctant to support him given that he's been appointed by Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who has been accused of corruption.

OH-Sen: Portman Announces Candidacy

2009-01-14T17:12:00.011-05:00

The GOP scored their first recruitment victory when former congressman and Bush cabinet official Rob Portman officially announced his candidacy to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) earlier today. He is widely thought to be the most electable of the potential Republican candidates to run for Voinovich's seat.

He is the first candidate to jump into the race, and it is clear that he is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination. Just hours after his announcement, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) endorsed Portman. Republican Ohio Reps. Bob Latta and Patrick Tiberi followed suit soon afterward.

With nearly the entirety of the Ohio Republican Party coalescing around Portman, it is almost inconceivable that he won't win the GOP nomination.

Even though Republicans are rejoicing about Portman's candidacy, state Democrats will almost certainly tie him to George W. Bush, who appointed him to the positions of director of the Office of Management and Budget as well as U.S. Trade Representative over the past four years.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan is openly considering running while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will decide in one week whether or not he will enter the race. These two men are considered to be the strongest candidates on the Democratic side.

NH-Sen: Gov. Lynch Won't Run Against Gregg

2009-01-14T16:46:00.006-05:00

Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) announced today that he will not be challenging incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) for his Senate seat in 2010. Lynch was widely thought of as the DSCC's dream candidate to take on Gregg.

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget,” Lynch told the New Hampshire Union-Leader at a press conference this afternoon.

Lynch is serving his third two-year term as governor, and was reelected to that position with 70% of the vote in 2008.

Now the two leading Democratic candidates to challenge Gregg are the state's two representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, who are both still deciding whether to run. An ARG poll shows that Hodes would be the stronger candidate of the two, so he will probably be the DSCC's top pick for this race.

Poll: Carnahan Leads Potential GOP Candidates

2009-01-14T15:23:00.005-05:00

Only six days after Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced his retirement, PPP released the first poll for his potential successors in the 2010 election.

According to the poll, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) would lead three potential Republican candidates--Rep. Roy Blunt, former Sen. Jim Talent and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--in Missouri's 2010 open-seat Senate race, if she decides to run. Here are the numbers.

Carnahan--45%
Blunt--44%

Carnahan--47%
Talent--43%

Carnahan--47%
Steelman--36%

These numbers show that Carnahan would start off in a strong position if she ran, even against the strongest Republican challengers, but she would not be a shoo-in by any means for the seat. Currently 45% of voters having a favorable opinion of her and 36% view her unfavorably.

Blunt, who runs the most competitively with Carnahan (most likely because of his high name recognition), is also viewed less favorably by Missourians, with only a negative favorability rating (40% view him favorably and 43% view him unfavorably).

Talent has the highest favorable rating of the three Republicans included in the poll, with 45% viewing him favorably and 39% viewing him unfavorably.

Steelman is the least known of the three, with 35% of the poll's respondents saying that they have no opinion of her either way, which means that she could potentially have room to improve her numbers once Missourians get to know her better.

But in any case, this early poll shows us that the race for this open seat will undoubtedly be very competitive.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek Will Run

2009-01-13T17:41:00.012-05:00

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) officially announced earlier today that he will be running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) Senate seat.

He is the first Democrat to enter the race, while most other prominent Democrats in the state--namely Reps. Allen Boyd and Ron Klein--are waiting on state CFO Alex Sink to announce her intentions for 2010. If Sink runs, she will face a primary challenge from Meek, who will be a probably mount a competitive campaign.

Meek has already hired some talent to his campaign in the form of Steve Hildebrand, Barack Obama's deputy national campaign manager and the former political director of the DSCC. It is clear that he is very serious about running and should not be taken lightly by Sink or any other Democratic candidates.

NC-Sen: Poll Shows Burr is Vulnerable

2009-01-12T19:17:00.005-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) would be vulnerable against two potential Democratic challengers: state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore. Here are the numbers:

Burr--45%
Cooper--43%

Burr--46%
Moore--40%

As expected, Burr is going to have a tough reelection fight on his hands if either of these men run against him. This is yet another headache for NRSC Chairman John Cornyn--who already has four GOP retirements on his hands, but probably five with the addition of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), who will likely resign her seat this year to run for governor.

Cooper has long been thought to be the strongest candidate to challenge Burr. Earlier polling even has Cooper leading Burr in a hypothetical match-up. Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in November and is a popular figure in the state, as opposed to Burr, whose favorables are 47/46.

But this poll shows that the DSCC has other options if Cooper opts out in the form of Richard Moore, who fared slightly worse in the poll but still kept Burr under 50%, which is a very good sign when pitted against an incumbent this far out from the election.

Any way you look at it, Burr is looks like he's going to be very vulnerable in 2010. All the DSCC has to do now is recruit a top-tier challenger like Cooper (or Moore) to give them a really solid shot of flipping the seat.

IL: Senate Dems to Seat Burris

2009-01-12T17:35:00.006-05:00

From Politico:

The Roland Burris saga is over, as Democratic Senate leaders have accepted his credentials and will swear him in as the junior senator from Illinois by the end of this week. ...

In a statement issued after a 45-minute meeting between Senate officials and Burris’ lawyers, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Burris is now the senator-designate from Illinois after the secretary of the Senate approved his latest credentials.

Here's Reid and Durbin's official statement: "We have spoken to Mr. Burris to let him know that he is now the Senator-designate from Illinois and as such, will be accorded all the rights and privileges of a Senator-elect."

NRSC Chairman John Cornyn has already declared that regaining this Senate seat will be "a top priority for Republicans in 2010."

“I fully expect that the voters of Illinois will not soon forget this dark chapter in their state’s political history, just as I also expect voters across the country will not soon forget the arrogant mismanagement of Senate Democrat leaders in recent weeks,” Cornyn said in a statement.

The GOP is clearly smelling blood.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Officially Announces Retirement

2009-01-12T15:45:00.009-05:00

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) officially announced Monday morning that, "After prayerful consideration and much thought, my wife Janet and I have decided that I will not seek a third term in the United States Senate."

Voinovich (left) is the fourth Republican Senator to officially announce his retirement, putting the GOP in a tough position yet again in 2010.

This retirement gives the Democrats a good opportunity to flip the seat in 2010, when the seat will be vacant. It will also likely set up a competitive primary on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton and Zack Space as well as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are often mentioned as potential candidates. Within hours of Voinovich's announcement, Ryan publicly confirmed his interest in running for the seat, while Fisher is reportedly leaning against running.

On the Republican side, Rob Portman--a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and US Trade Representative under President Bush--is strongly considering a run, and would be the heavy favorite for the nomination. Portman had announced earlier that he would be interested in running if Voinovich decided to retire, and has already been laying the groundwork for a run, according to The Hill.

Portman is thought to be able to clear the Republican primary field, as he reportedly has the support of the national party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). He will also reportedly will unveil Mercer Reynolds, the finance chairman of President George W. Bush's reelection race, to head his fundraising efforts. Portman is expected to officially announce his candidacy on Wednesday.

Former Rep. John Kasich has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he is widely thought to be more interested in challenging Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2010.

In the last two election cycles, the Democrats have made great strides--in 2006 they took over a Senate seat and the governor's mansion, and Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

With all of these retirements and what looks like another an unfavorable map for the GOP, it is becoming abundantly clear that Democrats will likely achieve a 60+ seat filibuster-proof majority after the 2010 election. It is also becoming obvious that some of these Republican Senators in their 70s are not wild about the idea of living out the rest of their years in the minority, and are getting out before it gets worse.

New NRSC chairman John Cornyn must be having an ulcer.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Will Retire

2009-01-11T20:44:00.006-05:00

According to Politico and CNN, Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) will announce that he won't seek reelection in 2010 at some point tomorrow.

I'll have more on this disastrous development for the GOP after his official announcement.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

2009-01-10T12:22:00.004-05:00

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

With Blagojevich Impeached, IL Senate Battle Becomes Waiting Game

2009-01-10T11:19:00.008-05:00

Gov. Rod Blagojevich was impeached by a vote of 114-1 in the Illinois House yesterday. The Illinois Senate will start the impeachment trial next week, and Blagojevich has vowed to fight every step of the way.

However, I'm getting really sick of hearing and talking about Blagojevich and his impending trial, so from now on, I'm just going to focus on his Senate appointee, former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris, and the Illinois Senate seat that hangs in the balance.

Meanwhile, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Jesse White could not be forced to sign Roland Burris' Senate appointment certificate, but it also ruled that White's signature was not necessary to have him officially seated.

Sen. Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), who was looking chummy with Burris just last week, made it clear that despite the court's decision Burris would not be seated without White's signature.

But after the court ruling, White signed the certification and verified Burris' appointment, putting Durbin and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in a tricky position. They said they are going to consult with lawyers to see what to do next, but they are probably just stalling for time.

They would like to wait until after Blagojevich's impeachment trial is over (in which he is certain to be convicted) and have Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) make the Senate appointment. But that process could drag into mid-February, and it will be hard to keep Burris' appointment at bay for another month or more.

Meanwhile, it appears clear that Illinoisans oppose seating Burris. A new poll from Glengariff Group says that they are opposed to seating Burris by 53-32 margin, while 72% of them want either a special election or an appointment by Quinn to fill the Senate seat.

Personally, I don't think that Reid and Durbin can keep the Burris appointment in limbo for another month, so I believe that he will be seated before the Blagojevich impeachment trial is finished.

I think that the biggest reason that they don't want Burris to be seated is because they're scared of what will happen in 2010. Burris will be 73 on election day, and the majority of Senate appointees have a really hard time getting elected.

On top of that, since most Illinoisans don't want Burris to be seated, most of them probably have and will continue to hold an unfavorable view of him. If Burris wins the Democratic nomination, a strong challenger like Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) could easily defeat him. The Democrats would then be losing a seat that they should have held easily.

The solution to prevent that kind of situation would be to pose a strong primary challenge to Burris in 2010. Andrew Tanenbaum of Electoral-Vote.com makes a case for Dan Seals, a potential (young and black) challenger "who ran for Congress in 2006 and 2008 and lost narrowly both times."

FL-Sen: CFO Alex Sink Ponders Senate Run

2009-01-09T18:55:00.006-05:00

From Campaign Diaries:

Former Governor Jeb Bush’s decision not to run for Florida’s open Senate race has freed up other Republicans who are now considering a bid; but Democrats are still waiting for their towering figure, state CFO Alex Sink. The latest speculation was sparked by an interview Sink gave to St. Petersburg Times. She notes that “open seats like this don’t come around very often” and describes herself as “very strongly considering” running. It would be hard to blame the DSCC if they got excited by such comments, and it does sound like Sink is leaning towards a run.

OH-Sen: Voinovich To Retire?

2009-01-09T17:36:00.007-05:00

The Columbus Dispatch and Political Machine are both reporting that Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is seriously looking at the possibility of retiring. Voinovich is in his 70's and is near the top of most pundits' retirement list among Senators up for reelection in 2010.

The Political Machine article hints that Voinovich might announce his decision regarding his plans for reelection as early as next week.

If Voinovich were to retire, the most likely Republican to replace him would be Rob Portman, a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Trade Representative.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan would lead the pack in the Democratic primary if they announced their candidacies and could pose strong challenges to Voinovich or Portman in the general election.

Whether or Voinovich retires or not, this seat will be one the most competitive in the county in 2010, and it should be an interesting one to watch.

Trio of Senate Polls

2009-01-09T16:36:00.008-05:00

A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.

But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.

Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.

Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.

The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.

It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.

And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.

This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.

Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.

MO-Sen: Kit Bond Will Not Run for Re-Election

2009-01-08T11:12:00.011-05:00

Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced today that he will not be running for a fifth term in 2010. This is a big blow to Senate Republicans, who have already been greatly weakened by the last two election cycles and it gives the Democrats a greater chance of picking up the seat.

Senate Republicans now officially have three of their incumbents not running for reelection--Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, and now Kit Bond of Missouri. A fourth GOP Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, is almost certain to resign her Senate seat to run for governor but has not yet made a formal announcement. It is now abundantly clear that the GOP will be in for another tough election cycle.

Recent elections show that the Democrats are gaining ground in the state--Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated then-incumbent Republican Jim Talent in the 2006 Senate election and Democrat Jay Nixon was elected governor in 2008. The state also only gave John McCain a narrow 5,000-vote victory over Barack Obama. These losses for the GOP may have indicated to Bond would be vulnerable if he ran again in 2010.

Now that Bond is backing down, there is sure to be a very competitive primary on both sides. On the Republican side, potential candidates include former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, who are both rumored to be interested in the seat.

On the Democratic side, potentially strong candidates include Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Rep. Russ Carnahan, and State Auditor Susan Montee. Robin Carnahan has polled well against Bond, and looks like she would be an especially strong candidate.

You can expect the candidates mentioned above among others to take a much closer look at the race now that Bond has announced that he will step down.

PA-Sen: Matthews Won't Run

2009-01-07T21:01:00.010-05:00

Before his show "Hardball" today, Chris Matthews informed the show's staff in a production meeting that he will not be running for Senate in 2010, according to Politico.

Matthews, who was thought to be a credible challenger for the Pennsylvania Senate seat held by Arlen Specter (R), and was polling well against him in a hypothetical match-up.

Matthews reportedly met with political operatives about the possibility of running against Specter, and talked about it with his family, friends, and colleagues. A Matthews candidacy would have likely cleared the the majority of the primary field on the Democratic side.

But instead, we can now expect there to be a competitive primary on the Democratic side, featuring Rep. Patrick Murphy and Rep. Allyson Schwartz as the potential front-runners.

AK-Sen: Palin vs. Murkowski Polls Show Vast Contradiction

2009-01-07T17:09:00.009-05:00

About two weeks ago, a Research 2000 poll was released that showed that Gov. Sarah Palin would crush Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican primary by a margin of 55% to 31%. At that point, I noted that the seat was Palin's for the taking, referencing those numbers.

But then, in a complete 48-point reversal, a new Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading Palin 57% to 33% in a hypothetical match-up between the two among Republican primary voters.

So what the hell is going on here?

Well first, there's reason to be suspicious of the Dittman poll. It turns out it was commissioned by conservative radio host Dan Fagan, not KTUU, the local TV station who's name was in the title of the poll. And Fagan is most certainly not a fan of Palin and is a big fan of Murkowski, who he knows personally. So I wouldn't put my complete faith in this poll.

Second, Alaska has proven to be the most difficult state in the country to poll. In the 2008 election, the polls were off by a long shot in the presidential, Senate, and House races. Here's Nate Silver's theory:

[Alaska's] residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics. Several pollsters, including Research 2000, had no idea that Don Young would hang on to defeat Ethan Berkowitz in November, nor that Ted Stevens would come so close to Mark Begich.

So in sum, I have learned not to trust any poll from Alaska, but I'd say the Research 2000 poll is more viable and legitimate. But the real preference of Alaska Republicans in a Palin v. Murkowski race is probably somewhere in the middle of these two nearly polar opposite polls.

If I were Sarah Palin, I would think long and hard about challenging Murkowski for her Senate seat and giving up her own seat in the governor's mansion leading up to a 2012 run.

FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Will Not Run

2009-01-06T19:57:00.011-05:00

To the surprise of myself and countless other political pundits, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced today that he will not run for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's seat in 2010, the AP reports.

Bush said, "now is not the right time to return to elected office."

This announcement clears the field for several other prominent potential Republican candidates such as state House Speaker Marco Rubio, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, and state Senate President Jeff Atwater--who were all thought unlikely to announce their candidacies if Bush had decided to run.

Now, the primary on the Republican side should prove to be messy and as of now there is no clear favorite. The DSCC is trying to get state CFO Alex Sink to run, who will now probably be more likely to throw her hat in the ring now that Bush has made it clear he will not run.

Bush was thought to be the Republicans' strongest candidate, and they were openly hoping that he would run. Democrats are sure to be rejoicing as a result of this latest development, as their chance of flipping this seat has just increased greatly.

NY-Sen: Caroline Kennedy Rapidly Losing Support

2009-01-06T19:37:00.007-05:00

This time last week it seemed all but inevitable that Caroline Kennedy would be Gov. David Paterson's (D-NY) choice to fill Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be vacant Senate seat.

But now, as two different polls from Public Policy Polling have shown, Kennedy's support among New Yorkers for getting that position have tanked recently, to the benefit of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

The first poll showed that Cuomo leads Kennedy 58% to 27% among New York voters as the one that they would most like to see Paterson appoint to the Senate. Cuomo led Kennedy 54-34 among Democrats alone, while she held a 44-23 lead in last month's poll in that category.

The second poll, which came out today, showed both Cuomo and Kennedy matched up against Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in a general election match-up for 2010.

Cuomo would trounce King 48% to 29%, while Kennedy's margin of victory was 46% to 44%--which is in the margin of error. Cuomo would clearly be the stronger general election candidate, according to these polls.

If Gov. Paterson is making his selection based just on the numbers, Andrew Cuomo is his man.

For the record, I've been making the case for Cuomo from the start. I think he's clearly the more qualified candidate, and he could easily raise a large campaign war chest for the 2010 election, whether he would face off against King or even Rudy Giuliani. And the above poll shows now that he is more electable than Kennedy. I implore David Paterson to see reason and see the light.