Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Saturday, February 28, 2009

IL: Giannoulias Announces Run

Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias plans to announce on Monday that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL).

Giannoulias, a wealthy 32-year old son of Greek immigrants, is said to be the favorite of the Democratic establishment--particularly Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)--mainly because of his impressive fundraising abilities. Giannoulias is also personally close with Durbin and President Obama, which can only help him.

They Democratic leader might also like the fact that he poured $3 million of his own money in his 2006 bid for treasurer. They can only expect that he would pour in a lot more for a Senate run.

However, as is customary with nearly every Illinois politician, Giannoulias has baggage. The Hill points out that he has ties to Rod Blagojevich, Tony Rezko, and the Mafia. Yikes.

Republicans also may point to the Illinois's $9 billion budget deficit if Giannoulias is the nominee--as he is running hard on the fiscal responsibility angle.

The young treasurer is likely to face opposition in the Democratic primary. Burris has not made it clear if he plans to run for the seat outright in 2010, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky has refused to rule out a run and would be a formidable candidate. Former Commerce Secretary William Daley has also expressed interest in running for the nomination, and would receive the support of the Chicago political machine because his brother just happens to be mayor of Chicago.

I would keep an eye on those three over the next few months, and see if Giannoulias scares any of them away.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Friday Updates

Illinois: The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Commerce Secretary William Daley (D)--who is also the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley--is considering running for Sen. Roland Burris' (D-IL) Senate seat--regardless of whether the embattled Senator runs again for the seat. If Daley jumps in the race, he will likely face off against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has not yet announced his candidacy but is rumored to be Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin's top pick for the post.

Louisiana: Bayou Buzz reports that former Rep. John Cooksey is considering challenging Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)--who is plagued by his involvement in the DC Madam scandal last year. We not have three Republicans--Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Family Research Council President Tony Perking and Cooksey--eying a primary challenge to Vitter.

Kentucky: Angry over the way Republican leaders have been treating him these past few months, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) is reportedly considering resigning from the Senate to let Kentucky's Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, appoint a replacement--thus giving the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Al Franken prevails in Minnesota). Now, I think that this is an empty threat from Bunning that came out of frustration, in order to get treated better by the Senate Republican leadership. But if he does go through with it--and Bunning is crazy enough to do it--we can expect Gov. Beshear to appoint his Democratic lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, to the seat. Mongiardo has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, so it seems like a natural pick.

UPDATE: Bunning denied the report in a statement. "It's not true. I intend to fulfill my obligation to the people of Kentucky. If you are going to write something like this, you better make your sources known, because they are lying," Bunning said. But one of his staffers didn't deny that he said it.

Oh, Jim, between calling your minority leader "deaf," predicting Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, and now this, I think it's safe to say that it's going to be a hoot watching you these next two years.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

UT: Bennett is Safe

A new Research 2000 poll confirms that Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) is firmly entrenched is his ruby red state of Utah, and will have an easy time being reelected in 2010.

The poll tested Bennett against Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT), legendary Jeopardy contestant Ken Jennings (D), Attorney David Leavitt (R), and state Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff (R). Here are the numbers:

Bennett--55%
Matheson--32%

Bennett--57%
Jennings--21%

Bennett--44%
Leavitt--23%

Bennett--46%
Shurtleff--20%

Bottom line? Bennett has nothing to worry about.

Oh, and Research 2000: you had to put Ken Jennings in there? Seriously? How about some mayors or former mayors of Salt Lake City next time?

TX: Poll Shows GOP Has Early Edge For Hutchinson's Seat

A new PPP poll tested several possible match-ups for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (R-TX) Senate seat, which she is expected to resign from for a 2010 gubernatorial bid (thus sparking a special election).

The poll tested two Democrats--Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp--against three Republicans--Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, state Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott and state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Here are the numbers:

White--37%
Dewhurst--42%

White--36%
Abbott--42%

White--36%
Shapiro--37%

Sharp--36%
Dewhurst--42%

Sharp--36%
Abbott--44%

Sharp--37%
Shapiro--34%

This poll is, overall, good news for Republicans as they would start out with the upper-hand in the special election. But it also shows that this deep south seat is not out of reach for the Democrats.

The Democrats have two relatively strong candidates in White and Sharp, (who both announced that they will run) who have a shot of making this race competitive. They both start out on equal footing--posting similar numbers against the Republicans, having similar approval ratings and relatively low name recognition--leaving room to grow.

The GOP's two top candidates appear to be Dewhurst and Abbott, but neither of them have expressed any interest thus far. But keep in mind that it is Texas, home of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay and the Alamo--you can be sure that the GOP will put a top-tier candidate to face either White or Sharp.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Tuesday Recap

Illinois: Yesterday, Roland Burris met with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin to discuss his future. Durbin suggested that Burris resign, but the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported that Burris strongly suggested that he would not resign due to the current controversies that surround him, but he also suggested that he would not run for the seat outright in 2010. Then, a Burris spokesman said that Burris had made no decisions about 2010. The saga continues...

Kentucky: NRSC chair John Cornyn said that the last week's meeting with state Senate President David Williams (R) was just a courtesy visit, and that he is not recruiting anyone to challenge the unpopular and vulnerable Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in a primary. He also added:“As long as he is running, I will be supportive of him.” Bunning rejected this olive branch: “I don’t believe anything John Cornyn says. I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from, I guess, the first week of this current session of the Senate.” He then added this firecracker: “If they recruited someone to run in a primary against me, I would sue them because they are not following their bylaws.” So it looks like Bunning's going to be the GOP Senate nominee in Kentucky. The DSCC can start celebrating now.

Pennsylvania: RNC Chairman Michael Steele threatened to withhold RNC funds from Sen. Arlen Specter (R) and is open to supporting more conservative primary challengers over Specter for his 2010 reelection bid--mainly because of his vote on the stimulus package. Then the chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party suggested that the state party might not support Specter in a contested primary. He is gonna face one hell of a primary challenge from the right yet again this election cycle.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

KY: NRSC Setting Up Primary Challenge for Bunning?

KYPolitics reports:

A political bombshell this weekend from several well-placed GOP sources, in Frankfort and Washington: State senate President David Williams met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday to discuss his interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning. Williams, in town for the National Governor's Association winter meeting, impressed GOP officials, who called his interest "serious."

It's no secret that NRSC chair John Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell don't want Bunning to run for reelection, but it is almost unheard of for a campaign committee to actively support another candidate over the incumbent in a primary.

Bunning is unpopular, but not so unpopular within his own party that he would automatically lose to someone like Williams in the GOP primary.

As the folks over at Swing State Project point out, Williams supported a tax increase on alcohol and tobacco, "something that wouldn't go over well with the GOP rank-and-file." Bunning, meanwhile, has pretty good conservative bona fides and might be hard to take down in the primary, much to the dismay of Senate Republicans.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Quinn Calls On Burris to Resign

Politico reports:

CHICAGO -- Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn said Friday that Roland Burris should resign from the United States Senate and the vacancy should then be filled by a special election.

Quinn joins a chorus of state legislators and two Democratic House members in calling on Burris to resign, saying his Jan. 8 answers before a state legislative committee defied the public's trust about the appointment.

"At this time, we have a senator who has a cloud over his head," Quinn said.

Burris has so far remained defiant, saying he's done nothing wrong and said he'd fully cooperate with state and federal probes about the circumstances of his appointment by ousted former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The special election would take place within 115 days after Burris leaves office--assuming he does leave.

UPDATE: Burris's Chief of Staff resigned today, following the resignation of his spokesman yesterday. Clearly Burris' days are numbered in the Senate.

WA: Poll Shows Murray in Good Shape

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) crushing two top potential Republican candidates--Rep. Dave Reichert and state Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna--in hypothetical general election match-ups. Here are the numbers:

Murray--53%
Reichert--40%

Murray--55%
McKenna--39%

The Scorecard reports: "
Neither Republican is expected to run: Reichert isn’t likely to abandon his House seat for a tough challenge against Murray, while McKenna is eying a gubernatorial race in 2012."

Murray also holds strong favorable ratings, with 55% of respondents viewing her favorable while 40% view her unfavorably.

NY-B: Pataki For Senate?

The Associated Press reports that Sen. John Cornyn, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, approached former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) this Tuesday about running for the Senate in 2010.

If he were to enter the race, Pataki would be challenging Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to succeed Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

It is clear that Cornyn prefers the possibility of a Pataki candidacy over the candidacy of Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has been trailing Gillibrand by double-digits in recent polling.

A Marist poll released that month found Gillibrand and Pataki in a statistical dead heat, with Gillibrand leading Pataki 44-42.

However, a 2010 Senate bid is seen as unlikely according to officials close to Pataki:

Former Rep. Thomas Reynolds, a close Pataki friend, told Gannett News Service that he spoke to Pataki for about 20 minutes Wednesday and the topic never came up.


"George Pataki as a mayor, as an assemblyman, as a senator and as a three-term governor, should he ever choose to re-enter public life, that's the most formidable Republican candidate we would have in the state," Reynolds said.


But Reynolds said Pataki, 63, of Garrison is enjoying the private sector as an attorney and spending time with his family, and "I just don't know that George Pataki wants to pursue a senatorial race."


Even if Pataki does run, there is no need for Democrats to panic. He left office in 2006 with a mediocre-to-low favorability rating, and might not have enough pull in New York anymore to defeat Gillibrand next year, given how blue the state has become.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Poll: Burr Leads Two Low-Profile Dems in NC

Public Policy Polling has released their third poll of the 2010 North Carolina Senate race. Each poll pits incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against a different Democratic opponent in a hypothetical general election match-up.

The first two polls pitted Burr against the two high-profile Democrats who are thought to be eying the race. The first poll, from December, found Burr trailing state Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5%. The second poll found Burr leading Rep. Heath Shuler by 11%.

This new poll pitted Burr against two low-profile Democrats--investment banker Jim Neal (who lost the 2008 Democratic Senatorial nomination to Kay Hagan) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Burr leads Neal 44% to 30%, while he leads Cunningham 46% to 27%.

Burr's approval ratings should give Republicans hope of holding the seat, as 41% of respondents approve of his performance while 33% disapprove--which is a net 5% improvement from the previous poll.

Nevertheless, it looks like the DSCC can put this seat in play if they recruit a top tier candidate like Cooper, or to a lesser extent, Shuler. If they are stuck with anyone with a lower profile than Cooper and Shuler, this race will likely slip away from them.

MO: Blunt Announces Candidacy

As expected, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)announced today that he will be running for Missouri's open Senate seat in 2010.

Blunt was until recently the House minority whip and is from one of Missouri's most prominent political families. He has the support of the GOP establishment in Missouri and Washington and will start out as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

He faces the prospect of a tough primary challenge from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who has long been critical of the Republican establishment and ran a reform-minded campaign for governor in 2008, losing in the primary. If she jumped in the race, things could easily turn ugly as she would paint herself as the "outsider" while depicting Blunt as the "ultra-partisan-Washington-loving-insider."

The primary will end in mid-August of 2010, so if it is bruising, as expected, the nominee will only have less than three months to recover in time for the general election.

Whoever comes out on top in the primary will likely face Missouri's Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--also a member of a prominent Missouri political family--in the general election, who announced her candidacy at the end of January. She is expected to face little competition in the Democratic primary.

Early head-to-head polls show that Blunt does better than Steelman when matched up against Carnahan, but that could be attributed to Blunt's superior name recognition.

We should know for sure whether Steelman will jump in the race this weekend, as she is expected to make an announcement at the annual Missouri Lincoln Day event in Kansas City this weekend. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: In an interview with Politico, Steelman said that she is "in the process of laying the groundwork that I need to get done before making an official announcement," and that she is "definitely strongly leaning towards doing this."

NYT: Obama Set to Pick Sebelius for HHS

The New York Times is reporting that President Obama will appoint Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as his Secretary of Health and Human Services.

The Times reports that the only reason that the announcement has not been made official is that the administration wants to conduct as thorough a vetting process as possible to avoid another Tom Daschle-esque cabinet controversy.

Of course, if Sebelius is appointed, that would effectively eliminate the possibility that she would run for her state's open Senate seat in 2010. Early polling showed that she would have a double-digit lead over Rep. Jerry Moran and Rep. Todd Tiahrt--the two leading Republican candidates for the seat.

Sebelius was considered to be the only Democrat who could have any chance of putting the seat in the play for them. So if she joins Obama's cabinet, this race will be permanently fall in the "Safe GOP" category, and whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will be the next U.S. Senator from the state of Kansas.

OH: Two Top Democrats to Face Off in Primary

On Tuesday, two of Ohio's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would be running for the state's open Senate seat in 2010, setting up a contentious primary.

Another Democrat attracting a lot of Senate buzz, Rep. Tim Ryan, announced soon after that he would not run for the seat and that he would be endorsing Fisher. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has already said that he would back Fisher over Brunner in the Democratic primary, giving Fisher instantaneous establishment and financial support.

As far as electability is concerned, polls like this and this show that both candidates match up equally against Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee.

Now that two heavyweight Democrats have announced their candidacies, I think it is reasonably safe to say that none of the other members of the Ohio congressional delegation (Reps. Zack Space, Betty Sutton, Marcy Kaptur, etc.) will enter the race.

Competitive primaries always have the potential to leave the party's nominee bruised, so there is just reason for Democrats to have concern.

However, Taniel of Campaign Diaries makes the case that this kind of primary could potentially be a good thing for the Democrats, citing that the primary is in May--so there is plenty of time to recover in time for the general election--and it allows them to stay in the media spotlight while Portman will fall out of the public eye. He also compares this race to the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how it strengthened Obama's campaign in the long run. It's worth a read if you're interested.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Poll: Dorgan Strong Against Hoeven in North Dakota

A new Research 2000 poll finds Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) holding up very well against in a hypothetical 2010 match-up against popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven.

Dorgan crushes Hoeven by 22 points, 57% to 35%, even though both men enjoy similarly strong approval ratings across nearly every demographic.

Hoeven is the only Republican who could even have a remote shot of taking down Dorgan, but he is widely thought to be very unlikely to run. Looking at numbers like these might further convince him to stay out of the race.

DE: O'Donnell Will Run

Christine O'Donnell, the 2008 Republican nominee for Senate who lost to then-Sen. Joe Biden (as he concurrently ran for re-election to the Senate while he was on the Presidential ticket) by a margin of 65-35, has announced that she will run for the Senate again in 2010.

She will be running in the special election for Joe Biden's Senate seat, which is currently held by placeholder Ted Kaufman. State Attorney General Beau Biden--the Vice President's son--is expected to run on the Democratic side, and will face little to no opposition in the primary.

O'Donnell's entrance in the race decreases the likelihood that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)--the NRSC's top recruit to run for the seat--will jump in the race, as he will not likely want to tussle with someone like O'Donnell in the GOP primary.

O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker candidate than Castle, and if she is the Republican nominee facing off against Beau Biden, the Democrats should hold the seat with ease.

Gregg Withdraws Nomination, Announces He Won't Run for Reelection

In a stunning unexpected move, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) withdrew his nomination to become President Obama's Commerce Secretary, citing "irresolvable conflicts" over the economic stimulus package and the 2010 census.

The move clearly caught the White House by surprise, and they issued this harsh statement while Obama was making a campaign-esque stop selling his stimulus package to the public:

Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart.

In a conference call later that night, Gregg indicated that he will not run for reelection to the Senate in 2010.

So all things considered, this whole fiasco didn't really have any major effects regarding 2010. This seat will still be open in 2010, Rep. Paul Hodes will still run for the seat on the Democratic side and still has the backing of the party establishment, and New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) might still make a go for it, but it is still unlikely.

Republicans still need to start their recruitment process in New Hampshire, which wouldn't have been any different had Gregg gone on to become Commerce Secretary--so they still need a candidate like former Sen. John Sununu or former Rep. Charlie Bass to make this race competitive.

The person that is perhaps most effected by Gregg's decision in Bonnie Newman, who was set to replace Gregg as a placeholder until 2010, and now won't get to be a Senator.

FL: Fate of Seat Lies With Crist

A new Strategic Vision poll confirms that Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is only candidate in either party who could move this race into the safe column--and that if he wants the seat, it is his for the taking. If he decides to run for another term as governor, this race will sink into complete chaos, as none of the other potential candidates have any kind of statewide name recognition.

Republican Primary with Crist
: If Crist runs, he would get 54% of the Republican vote, while his close competitor--Rep. Connie Mack--would get 16%.

Republican Primary without Crist:
If Crist stays out, Mack leads the pack with 21%, followed by Rep. Vern Buchanan (11%), former state House Speaker Allen Bense (8%), and another former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (5%). The most important number here is that 55% of Republicans say they are undecided.

Democratic Primary:
The four candidates tested--Rep. Ron Klein, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Kendrick Meek, and state Sen. Dan Gelber--all have very low name recognition, and 66% of respondents say they are undecided. That said, Klein gets 12%, Meek gets 10%, Iorio gets 8%, and Gelber gets 4%.

General Election: The poll also tested 20 general election match-ups, which followed a similiar pattern. Here is a table from Campaign Diaries that makes things clearer. The Republican's number comes first.


Crist Mack Buchanan Bense Rubio
Klein 58-24 32-27 24-28 22-27 18-29
Iorio 57-29 32-30 26-30 24-30 19-32
Meek 60-26 35-25 29-23 28-21 26-24
Gelber 58-27 33-27 23-20 27-25 17-22

Here's what Campaign Diaries gathered from these results:

  • Not only does Charlie Crist have huge leads (between 28% and 34%), he is also hovering around 58% - a high number that makes it hard to see how Democrats could defeat him. (That does not mean that Democrats should dread the prospect of his candidacy. For Crist to run for Senate would create a highly competitive gubernatorial election, and that would have huge consequences for redistricting and for next decade’s House races.)
  • Connie Mack looks to be a highly competitive competitor, as he beats all four Democrats - though one of the match-ups leaves him within the margin of error.
  • Both Pam Iorio and Ron Klein have relatively good numbers, as they edge out three of the five Republicans - including Rep. Vern Buchanan. Pam Iorio’s numbers are particularly encouraging, since she is the only Democrat to hold Mack within the margin of error and to hold Crist under… 30%.
  • Marco Rubio, Allen Bense and Dan Gelber: All are state legislators, and in a state as large as Florida it is not realistic to expect them to be known by a wide public - and it’s very hard to make much of their results.
  • Kendrick Meek is the only contender to lose every single one of his match-ups, and that is a particularly dreadful result given that two of his opponents are state legislators. Compared to fellow Rep. Ron Klein, for instance, Meek underperforms by 12% against Bense and 13% against Rubio! That he even loses against Marco Rubio should be particularly worrisome to Meek.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

NH: Poll Shows No Clear Frontrunner

A new PPP poll shows that there is no clear front-runner in the race to replace Sen. Bonnie Newman (R-NH) in 2010. Newman was appointed to replace Judd Gregg (R) after Gregg was tapped as President Obama's Commerce Secretary last week. Newman is not expected to run for the seat in 2010.

The poll pitted Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter against two Republicans, former Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Charlie Bass. Here are the numbers:

Hodes--46%
Sununu--44%

Hodes--40%
Bass--37%

Shea-Porter--45%
Sununu--46%

Shea-Porter--42%
Bass--43%

Both Sununu and Bass run well against these two Democrats, but if both of them decide to pass on the race--Sununu has not shown any interest in the race and Bass will probably run for Hodes' House seat--the Republican bench gets very thin and they won't have much of a chance of retaining the seat.

On the Democratic side, Hodes has already announced his candidacy and the Democratic establishment is beginning to rally around him. The poll found that 42% of New Hampshire voters view Hodes favorably while 34% view him unfavorably.

Shea-Porter is still reportedly pondering a run, but might defer because of the support that Hodes is garnering. She has an approval rating of 43-40, and does slightly worse than Hodes against both potential Republican candidates.

MO: Talent is Out

Former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) announced yesterday that he will not be running for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's Senate seat in 2010.

“There are other qualified Republicans who are seriously investigating the race, and it is vital to prevent the kind of dissension that hurt my party’s ticket so greatly in 2008,” Talent said in a statement.

Now the Republican field has essentially come down to two candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Blunt, who would be the state GOP's establishment pick, is set to announce his candidacy very soon. Steelman, who would be the anti-establishment candidate, is thought very likely to enter the race.

Talent’s allusion to “other qualified Republicans” means that he's not ready to take a side yet, and has not yet counted out Steelman.

Blunt has been consolidating financial and GOP establishment support the past few weeks, and has been pressuring Talent not to challenge him in the primary. Steelman, in the meantime, has wasted no time in calling Blunt "an insider," while portraying herself as an "outsider."

The Scorecard points out: "Steelman ran unsuccessfully for governor last year, but has strong support from conservatives for her vocal criticism of earmarks and wasteful spending."

If Steelman enters the race, as expected, the Republican primary will likely turn very divisive and negative. The more the attacks escalate and the more advertisement money is spent in the primary, the happier Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the expected Democratic nominee--will be.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

CT: Is Dodd Vulnerable?

Per The Scorecard:

Could Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) be a sleeper target for Senate Republicans?

A new Quinnipiac poll shows the five-term Connecticut senator is highly vulnerable heading into his re-election next year. A 51 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they probably won’t be voting for him, with only 42 percent saying they’d likely support him.

Dogging Dodd is allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial. He also lost support after launching a quixotic presidential campaign, where he camped out in Iowa for several months.

A 56 percent majority of Connecticut voters said they were less likely to vote for him because of the mortgage scandal. And by a 54 to 24 percent margin, they didn’t buy Dodd’s explanation – that the low-interest loans were a “courtesy” – and want further details.

“Senator Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling,” said Quinnipiac Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating.”

On the fundraising front, Dodd only has $671,000 in his campaign account – significantly less than most vulnerable incumbents have on hand. But his connections as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee should allow him to quickly ramp up his fundraising in preparation for a tough race.

Republicans are already trying to recruit a credible challenger against Dodd, with former GOP congressman Rob Simmons heading the list. Simmons narrowly lost a Democratic-leaning House seat in 2006, and served as Connecticut’s Business Advocate after his defeat.

Monday, February 9, 2009

PA: Torsella Will Challenge Specter

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has his first Democratic challenger for 2010, when he will be running for a sixth term.

The Times Leader reports:

Philadelphia civic leader Joe Torsella says he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Arlen Specter.


The 45-year-old Torsella is a former president of the National Constitution Center and the current chairman of the State Board of Education.


Torsella says he filed paperwork Monday to form a committee to raise and spend money, and that he will announce his candidacy in the weeks ahead.


Torsella last ran for public office in 2004 when he unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) for an open House seat in the Democratic primary. He may now face her in a rematch in 2010, as Schwartz is reportedly pondering a Senate run herself.

Specter, who is notoriously moderate (and one of three Republicans to vote for the economic stimulus package), was expecting to face the conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. But Toomey announced last month that he would not be challenging Specter, thus freeing Specter from swerving to the right, which would have made him more vulnerable in the general election in an increasingly blue state.

Whether the Democratic nominee is Torsella or Schwartz or someone else, Specter is narrowly favored to win reelection and head back to the Senate for a sixth term, but he is certainly no shoo-in--even without a serious primary challenger.

Steelman Likely To Run in MO; Fisher Close to a Decision in OH

In Missouri, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is "very, very likely" to run for the Senate in 2010, according to two Republican sources close to Steelman.

If Steelman decides to run, as expected, there will be a bruising top-notch GOP primary battle between her and Rep. Roy Blunt, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon. It is clear that Blunt would have the support of the Republican establishment, and that Steelman would be the anti-establishment candidate. Former Sen. Jim Talent is also pondering running for the seat, but Blunt's people are reportedly trying to get Talent to wait his turn.

The longer and more drawn out the GOP primary battle becomes, the better it is for Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan--the likely Democratic nominee--as the two Republicans spend more and more money against each other while turning increasingly negative.

--

In Ohio, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) told OhioDaily that his decision on a 2010 Senate bid will come in the next 45 days.

Fisher is seen by many Democrats--including his boss, Gov. Ted Strickland--to be the strongest candidate to face off against former Rep. Rob Portman, the likely Republican nominee. Recent polls like this one and this one confirm that Fisher would probably be the strongest Democrat in the general election.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Ohio Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner and Rep. Tim Ryan.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Poll: Kansas Seat is Sebelius' For the Taking

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) would start out as the strong favorite to win the state's open Senate seat in 2010.

Sebelius leads both announced Republican candidates, Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, by double-digits. She also has a strong 56-37 approval rating in a state that has is considered to be safely Republican and one that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in over 76 years.

The poll also pitted Moran and Tiahrt against each other in the GOP primary, with Tiahrt holding a narrow advantage, though a majority of Republican voters are undecided at this point.

Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Tiahrt--24%
Moran--19%

General Election
Sebelius--47%
Tiahrt--37%

Sebelius--48%
Moran--36%

Sebelius, who will be term-limited in 2010, would be the single most prized recruit in the nation for the DSCC. She is seen as not only the early favorite to win a Senate seat in conservative Kansas, but also as the only Democrat who could even make the race remotely competitive.

However, Sebelius has not yet expressed any interest in the race, and her name is being floated as a possible Secretary of Health and Human Services to replace Tom Daschle. But she has already withdrew her name from consideration for a cabinet post last year.

She is also reportedly
interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Kansas, her alma mater, which would mean that she would not run for Senate.

We'll just have to wait and see what her next move is.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

KY: Poll Shows Dead Heat

A new Research 2000 poll shows a statistical dead heat between the six major potential candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky.

The poll pitted two Republicans (incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning and Sec. of State Trey Grayson) against four Democrats (Rep. Ben Chandler, state Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo) in hypothetical general election match-ups.

The poll actually had some good news for Bunning regarding his electability, even as Republican leaders are pressuring him to retire. That said, his leads over all four Democrats are within the margin of error, and he would face the race of his life against any of these four Democrats. The head-to-heads with Grayson and the four Democrats yield even tighter results. Here are the numbers:

Bunning--45%
Chandler--42%

Bunning--46%
Conway--42%

Bunning--45%
Luallen--41%

Bunning--46%
Mongiardo--42%

Grayson--42%
Chandler--42%

Grayson--42%
Conway--41%

Grayson--42%
Luallen--42%

Grayson--43%
Mongiardo--42%

These results are bizarre because Bunning
only holds a 41% favorability rating among Kentucky voters, while 47% view him unfavorably. That’s a lower favorability rating than President Obama, who lost the state by 19 points in November.

He still holds relatively stong support in Kentucky despite his poor favorability rating most likely because of the state's strong conservative leanings. Kentuckyans are relatively familiar with the four Democrats tested in the poll.

Mongiardo, the only announced Democratic candidate so far, holds a favorability rating of 50/40 and is most well-known among the four.

The next Democrat that is most likely to jump in is Conway, who holds a 48/27 favorability rating, which is stronger than Mongiardo's numbers, but he is more unknown to Kentucky voters at this point.

Chandler and Luallen, who both hold excellent approval ratings, are thought to be less likely to enter the race, but could still give Bunning a good challenge if they decided to run.

Grayson polls at least evenly with all four Democrats despite the fact he has very low name recognition, which means that he potentially has room to make gains. He would probably the stronger general election candidate for the GOP, but will probably only enter the race if Bunning chooses to retire (which is unlikely because Bunning has reiterated time and time again that he is running).

So to sum up, Bunning--despite his unpopularity--could still potentially hold his seat given how conservative Kentucky is. But at best it would be a nail biter, as all four of the Democrats included in the poll have the potential to defeat him. Bunning is still undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2010 cycle.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Poll: Dems Lead in Ohio Senate Race

A new Quinnipiac poll tested several potential (and announced) candidates for the 2010 Senate race in Ohio to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).

Those candidates were: former Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor on the Republican side and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Rep. Tim Ryan on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers:

Republican Primary
Portman--33%
Taylor--11%

Democratic Primary
Fisher--18%
Brunner--16%
Ryan--14%

General Election
Fisher--42%
Portman--27%

Fisher--41%
Taylor--27%

Brunner--38%
Portman--28%

Brunner--38%
Taylor--26%

Before we start to analyze these results, keep in mind that none of these potential candidates are known well enough for Ohio voters to have an opinion of them, so there is plenty of room to improve as they get introduced to those voters.

That said, these numbers are disappointing for Republicans and good news for Democrats. The GOP got its candidate of choice, Rob Portman, to enter the race--but he still loses to both Democrats by significant margins. It also appears that the Democratic brand is still stronger than the Republican brand in Ohio, but that may change as we head closer to 2010 and farther away from the presidency of George W. Bush.

None of the Democratic candidates have made their mind up about entering the race, but Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) made it clear that he would back Fisher over Brunner.

Strickland told the Cleveland Plain Dealer, "My commitment is to him first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Even though the poll shows that Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary, a Strickland endorsement would make it difficult for Brunner to get any serious traction, especially in the fundraising department. Strickland’s support for Fisher also strongly suggests that the other Democrat tested in the poll, Rep. Tim Ryan (who is also Strickland's old congressional colleague), won't make a run for the seat.

Fisher said that he would make his decision regardless of whether he would face Brunner or any other serious opposition in the primary. However, Fisher has been talking to Brunner in private about the race, and a bitter primary between the two could be damaging to party's chances against Portman. But I think that a primary battle between the two is unlikely.

Now all we have to wait for are the announcements of the candidacies, which should be coming in the following months.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Norm Coleman May Not Be Done For After All

From Political Wire:

Judges said that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount trial, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, which "would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt."

Al Franken (D), who holds a 225 vote lead in the race, had asked the judges to allow only 650 ballots that Norm Coleman (R) said he planned to challenge.

Is this thing ever going to end?

UPDATE: (from FiveThirtyEight.com)

The Court has also ruled, apparently, that the 4,800 absentee ballots Coleman wants to have counted will be held to a much higher burden of proof. Essentially, those ballots will be presumed to be guilty until proven innocent, and will have to be advocated for one at a time by the Coleman campaign, rather than being opened summarily and counted in bulk. This will make Coleman's rate of success very, very, very low, as opposed to merely very, very low. As Talking Points Memo notes, however, this process could take a very long time to complete and could continue to the delay the seating of a Senator Franken -- which may be Coleman's principal objective in the first place.

MO: Carnahan is In



Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) officially announced earlier today that she will be running for the Senate in 2010 to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).

This announcement was widely anticipated, as Carnahan was thought to be the Democrats' strongest recruit to flip the seat. Politico points out that "last year, she received over 1.74 million votes in her reelection bid for Secretary of State--more votes than any other candidate in statewide history."

Carnahan comes from Missouri's most prominent Democratic family, and isn't expected to face serious (if any) opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Carnahan will likely face Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who has been gathering financial, state and national establishment support--in the general election in what will be a clash of the titans, and will make for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

Blunt could be significantly weakened in the primary if former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman enters the race. Steelman has already blasted Blunt as "an insider" and seems serious about running for Republican nomination.

If Blunt comes out on top, his campaign cash will be depleted and he will have been bruised by a barrage of attack from the Steelman camp portraying him as a Washington insider. If Steelman somehow magically manages to win the nomination, then she will be weakened by establishment-funded attacks and will probably fall to Carnahan in the general election. Blunt is trying to dissuade former Sen. Jim Talent (R) from entering the race, but if he jumps in, things get a lot more complicated and the Democrats will have a lot more to cheer about.

NH: Newman Will Replace Gregg; Hodes Will Run

As expected, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) will appoint Republican Bonnie Newman to fill Sen. Judd Gregg's (R-NH) seat in the Senate.

Newman, Gregg's former chief of staff, is a moderate Republican likened to Maine's Republican Senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Newman is not expected to run for a full term in 2010, thus creating an open seat opportunity for the Democrats and probably their best take-over prospect.

The Manchester Union Leader reports that Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) will announce his candidacy for the seat within the week. Hodes (above) is thought to be the strongest Democratic candidate and an odds-on favorite to win the nomination.

CNN notes that New Hampshire's other representative, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is still considering making a run for Gregg's seat, but has not made a decision yet and is keeping her options open. But I think it's unlikely that Shea-Porter will challenge Hodes in a primary, especially if Hodes begins to consolidate support in the state.

The state GOP will concentrate on recruiting former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) to make a political comeback, after handily losing his seat to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. If Sununu opts out, the Republican bench becomes very thin, with state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, former Rep. Charlie Bass and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta being the most logical second-tier candidates.

Monday, February 2, 2009

FL: Crist Considers Senate Bid

Roll Call is reporting that Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, is "giving serious consideration to running for Senate." Crist, if he entered the race, would be running to replace the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) in 2010.

Crist already "has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn," so it looks like he's really seriously considering running. Also, the Democratic field is looking fairly weak now that the Democrats' top recruit, state CFO Alex Sink, opted out of running for the Senate seat.

Crist may be emboldened to run for the seat after looking at Research 2000's latest poll, which shows that he has astronomical favorables and that he would crush any primary and general election opposition.

The other top potential Republican contenders--namely former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack--are widely thought to be waiting for Crist to announce what he is doing before deciding their own plans for 2010.

Right now, I have this open Florida race categorized as a "Toss-Up", but if Crist entered the race it would quickly change to "Safe GOP." The seat is his for the taking. If he opts out, the Republican primary will be a free-for-all. The only question is: will he be willing to give up the governor's mansion so soon when he could easily be reelected to that position in the same year?

Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports that several Florida Republican operatives are saying that a Crist Senate run is unlikely, "but no one would close the door on the possibility."

Florida Republican party chairman Jim Greer said that Crist won't make any decisions until May.

NY-A: Schumer Might Run Unopposed

It's been known for a while that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the third highest-ranked Democrat in the Senate, would not face any real opposition for his seat in 2010.

But with the New York's already feeble Republican Party focused on challenging newly-appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 special election, it's looking more and more likely that Schumer could run unopposed.

In 2004, when Schumer was last up for reelection, the GOP's sacrificial lamb lost to Schumer 71% to 24%--the widest margin of defeat in the Empire State's history. He also already has a $10 million campaign war chest ready to go just in case.

If you were a New York Republican with anything to lose, would you want to challenge Schumer? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

KS: Tiahrt is Officially In, Setting Up Primary Battle

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) announced yesterday that he will be making a run for retiring Republican Sam Brownback's Senate seat in 2010. Tiahrt (left) has long been expected to enter the race, but yesterday was his officially announcement of his candidacy.

Awaiting him in the GOP primary is Rep. Jerry Moran, who announced his candidacy in late 2008. There is expected to be a huge battle between the two House colleagues, leading up to the August primary.

It is not surprising that two high profile Republicans would battle it out in the primary for this particular race, because the seat has gone Republican for the last 28 elections, dating back to 1936 (back when FDR was a spring chicken).

Only one poll of this primary has been released thus far, and it was an internal poll from Moran's camp that showed him leading Tiahrt 41% to 25% in a head-to-head primary match-up among Republican voters, with 34% undecided. This result is not surprising, as Moran is more well-known statewide than Tiahrt (and is also considered to be the slight favorite).

If the primary contest turns bitter and divisive, it could have a negative effect on the winner come the general election. If Tiahrt, who is seen as slightly more conservative than Moran, makes the primary into an ideological battle and tries to paint Moran as a moderate and prevails, moderate Republican voters might stay away from the polls or even back the Democratic nominee.

Of course, these damaging primary battle scenarios are contingent on whether the Democrats can recruit popular and moderate Gov. Kathleen Sebelius--who will be term-limited in 2010--to run. Sebelius is the only Democrat who can make this seat competitive, but if she does jump in, this race will be one of the most important and neck-and-neck Senate races in the country come 2010.

If Sebelius decides not to run, whoever comes out of the Republican primary--whether it be Moran or Tiahrt--will become the next United States Senator from Kansas.