Gregg Nomination Could Come as Early as Monday

An Obama administration official told ABC News that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) "is now the leading candidate for Commerce Secretary and could be announced as soon as Monday." Gregg would be the third Republican to join Obama's cabinet, following Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

By nominating Gregg, Obama is doing two things. He is (a) making his cabinet more bipartisan, which strengthens his image of of working with Republicans and (b) ensuring that New Hampshire's Democratic governor, John Lynch, gets to (presumably) appoint a fellow Democrat to fill Gregg's Senate seat, giving the Democrats 60 seats.

Gregg's friends think he would take the job if President Obama offers it, and that he has been actively considering it. Republicans on Capitol Hill and in New Hampshire are said to be putting fresh pressure on Gregg not to take the job if Gov. Lynch refuses to appoint a Republican, at least as a placeholder until 2010.

Joe McQuaid of the Manchester Union Leader said that appointing Gregg would be a great move, but only if a Republican replaced him. "Otherwise, the appointment would be seen through as Obama's clever move to gain a filibuster-proof Senate majority; and Gregg's acceptance would make his name mud in Republican circles in New Hampshire and beyond."

Gregg is up for reelection in 2010, and he is thought to be vulnerable to a challenge from one of New Hampshire's two Democratic congressmen. He would still be slightly favored to retain his seat, but it would be a tough reelection battle that he might not want to face in a state that has been trending strongly Democratic in recent years.

The fact that Gregg is considering taking the job so seriously is indication that he does not want to have to fight for his seat next year and that he does not look forward to being in the minority for the next 6-8 years. He also is probably thinking that eight years as Commerce Secretary could be a great segway into retirement after what would be 36 years in politics.

If he chooses to take the job, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and the rest of the Senate Republicans are going to be feeling a mix of fury and further powerlessness, as they will now no longer have the power to threaten a filibuster. We'll just have to see what happens Monday and the weeks to come. Stay tuned.

NV: Battle For Reid's Seat Begins

Two days ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee aired its first television ad of the 2010 cycle against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), one of their top targets. The ad, called "Trillion," blasts him for his support of President Obama's $825 billion stimulus package and other instances of heavy spending. Here it is:



Today, the Service Employees International Union put out an ad defending Reid from the previous attack ad, called "Hard Work," praising Reid for working with President Obama on the same economic stimulus package, but obviously put in a different light:



The 2010 ad wars have officially begun, with more than 21 months to go before Election Day.

IL: Poll Shows Burris in Decent Position For 2010

A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) leading two potential challengers in a 2010 Democratic primary--Rep. Jan Schakowsky and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias--and two potential Republican general election opponents--Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam.

The poll also matches up Kirk and Roskam in a hypothetical Republican primary match-up, and pits Schakowsky and Giannoulias against the two Republicans as well. Here are the numbers:

Democratic Primary
Burris--26%
Schakowsky--12%
Giannoulias--11%

Republican Primary
Kirk--27%
Roskam--17%

General Election
Burris--37%
Kirk--30%

Burris--38%
Roskam--25%

Schakowsky--36%
Kirk--30%

Schakowsky--37%
Roskam--25%

Giannoulias--38%
Kirk--30%

Giannoulias--38%
Roskam--25%

These numbers show Burris in a relatively decent position for the 2010 elections, considering his strong and inevitable tie with Rod Blagojevich. His favorable/unfavorable rating is at a surprisingly high 35/35, while name recognition for the other two Democrats is very low, so there is room for them to improve as they become better known statewide.

The head-to-head general election match-ups show that Kirk is more electable than Roskam, but that any of the three Democrats would prevail over either Republican at this point. Most (78%) of the Illinois voters know enough about Kirk, the likely Republican nominee, to form an opinion of him, and many of them (41%) hold an unfavorable view of him, so excuses of lack of name recognition don't apply.

That said, someone like Kirk or Roskam could still unseat Burris. There is still a large percentage of undecided voters in all of the match-ups, so it is still very early to tell what kind of shape Burris will be in.

Democrats May Get 60 Senate Seats After All

Roll Call reports that the Obama administration is considering appointing Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) to the position of commerce secretary. No decision has yet been made to fill the position, but the top two contenders are thought to be Gregg and Symantec CEO John Thompson.

This would fill a vacancy that has lingered since the previous appointee for the position, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, withdrew his nomination.

Of course, if Gregg is agrees to become commerce secretary, Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) would likely appoint a Democrat to take his place. That would give the Democrats 60 seats and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, assuming Al Franken prevails in the Minnesota recount (which is more a matter of "when" than "if" at this point).

Republican Senate officials will do nothing short of begging him to not taking the job, because their party would be in the super minority and even more powerless than they are now. Already, a Republican operative wrote to the Huffington Post to say, "No way that Gregg takes it."

Even if Gregg does not decide to take the job, his seat will still likely be in danger in 2010, as Democratic Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter are eying the race and are thought to be potentially very strong candidates to unseat Gregg (with the emphasis on Hodes).

Update: Politico reports that Gregg has confirmed he is a candidate for the Commerce position.

“I am aware that my name is one of those being considered by the White House for Secretary of Commerce, and am honored to be considered, along with others, for the position,” he said in a statement. “Beyond that there is nothing more I can say at this time.”

There are more and more reports that Gov. Lynch, given his moderate-to-conservative politics, might appoint a Republican placeholder to the seat until the 2010 election to avoid controversy.

The LA Times suggests that Gregg would not give up his seat unless Lynch agrees to appoint a Republican to his seat. Meanwhile, Reuters quotes a Democratic source who says that Lynch would be “more likely to appoint a Republican.”

Nate Silver points out that appointing Gregg to the position of commerce secretary might not be all that good for the Democrats in the long-run and that getting 60 Senate seats this soon is overrated:

Moreover, if the Democrats actually get the 60th seat, it will be much harder for them to play the obstructionism card in 2010 -- and much easier, conversely, for the Republicans to play the divided government card.

Now, let's not be too contrarian here: if this happens, it is almost certainly a net gain for Democrats. But it might be relatively small one, given that:

1a) Gregg was voting with the Democrats reasonably often anyway;

1b) His replacement, conversely, would likely be someone fairly moderate who wouldn't vote with the Democrats 100% of the time;

2) Gregg, who has been a pretty reliable fiscal conservative, would presumably have at least some influence shaping policy from the Commerce Department;

3) The perceived benefit to the Democrats from getting a 60th seat is greater than the real one, increasing the risk that they will be seen as overreaching by the time that 2010 rolls around.

FL: Boyd, McCollum Not Running

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) and state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R-FL) announced today that they will not be running for the open Senate seat in Florida in 2010.

Now that Boyd is out the of running, the remaining Democrats interested in the seat are Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber (who have both announced their candidacies), and Rep. Ron Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (who are still mulling runs).

On the Republican side, McCollum--who has lost two previous Senate bids--was thought to be one of the top three contenders for the nomination, but now it looks like there could be a battle between the other two: former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Connie Mack. "Neither candidate has officially announced their candidacy, but both are preparing campaigns behind the scene," Politico reports.

CO: Poll Shows That Bennet is Still Largely Unknown

Here's the results from the latest PPP poll, which pitted newly appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against two Republican rivals: former Gov. Bill Owens and former Rep. Tom Tancredo.

Bennet--41%
Owens--44%

Bennet--48%
Tancredo--39%

Although Bennet doesn't do so hot in this poll, you have to take into account the fact that nearly half of Colorado voters (45%) don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him, so we really shouldn't take the results of this poll too seriously.

Nevertheless, it seems like Owens is the GOP's best shot of unseating Bennet--but Owens has backed down from running for statewide office the last two election cycles, and is considered unlikely to run.

This poll confirmed the fact that Tancredo--despite his high profile--would be a very weak general election candidate. Bennet's numbers shot up from 41% to 48% when pitted against Tancredo, a clear sign that Colorado voters already hold a negative opinion of him and would reject him in the general election.

The poll did not pit Bennet against former US Attorney Troy Eid, who could potentially be a strong contender.

The two other frequently mentioned names on the Republican side, state Attorney Gen. John Suthers and former Rep. Scott McInnis, took themselves out of the running yesterday.

To sum up:

The bottom line? Bennet has a lot of work to do to introduce himself to the voters of the state. But overall the state's blueward trend makes it appear he is in a strong position for reelection, and the GOP will really have to recruit a top tier challenger to knock him off.

CO: Attorney Gen. Suthers Won't Seek Seat

Colorado Attorney General John Suthers (R) pulled himself out of the race to challenge newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in 2010 by announcing that he will seek reelection to his current position.

Suthers is the sole Republican statewide office holder and was widely thought to be the GOP's top recruit to challenge Bennet, who is (or was) thought to be relatively vulnerable.

Now that Suthers is out of the conversation, the list of potential Republicans to enter the race looks thin. The list includes:

--Former Gov. Bill Owens (who has shied away from running for public office again since his term as governor ended)

--Former US Attorney Troy Eid (who was going to run for Attorney General but is now backing out because of Suthers' decision to run for reelection; he might reconsider a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Scott McInnis (who is reportedly more interested in a 2010 gubernatorial run rather than a Senate bid)

--Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (who is unpopular, divisive, and alienates Latinos with his borderline reactionary views on immigration and would be the Democrats' dream opponent)

--Former football star John Elway (has never held public office and might be seen as a joke of a candidate)

Yeah, it's slim pickings for NRSC chairman John Cornyn in this race. I think that it's highly unlikely that Owens and McInnis will run, and Tancredo might run but would have a ton of trouble being elected statewide. And John Elway is John Elway.

So if I had to guess, I'd say that Troy Eid will be the Republican nominee. While Eid is qualified and might pose somewhat of a challenge to Bennet, he is certainly not the NRSC's dream candidate and would still likely fall short of victory.

With Suthers gone and the Republican bench looking even weaker, it appears as though Michael Bennet just dodged a political bullet.

KY: Mongiardo to Challenge Bunning

Kentucky Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is the first Democrat to formally announce that he will be challenging the unpopular and underfunded incumbent, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), in 2010.

Mongiardo was the Democratic nominee that faced off against Bunning in 2004, but back then he was only a little-known state senator. No one thought the race was going to be competitive, but despite the lack of attention and funds from the DSCC and being vastly outspent by Bunning, Mongiardo just barely lost to him, 51% to 49%.

Now Mongiardo, if he is the Democratic nominee, is much more well-known and has a higher profile in the state as the lieutenant governor, and he will receive plenty of cash and support from the state and national party, including that of the DSCC.

In a complete reversal from 2004, Bunning seems to be the one who is underfunded. He filed a campaign finance report last week which listed only $27,357 in campaign contributions between October 1 and December 1, and showed that he only had $150,000 on hand. As the Cincinnati Enquirer notes, “the next closest Republican had about $900,000 in the bank." Bunning has said that he will need to raise $10 million to win reelection. Yikes.

For those of us that have been following the 2010 Senate elections closely, it is clear that Bunning is the most vulnerable incumbent in next year's election. So vulnerable in fact that national Republicans have been urging him not to run for reelection, thinking that they will have a better shot of holding the seat with another Republican on the ticket. It is very rare that a party wants one of its incumbents to quit, but Bunning is so politically weak that he is an exception.

Shortly after the 2008 elections, Bunning announced that he would run for reelection in 2010 but few are holding him to his word, given his age (he will be 79 on Election Day) and his awful fundraising. If he doesn't retire, Republicans should field a very strong primary challenger to take him down. If that fails, they should be very very worried.

But whether he runs or retires, Mongiardo's candidacy ensures that this race will be one of the most competitive in the country, and arguably the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity.

That said, Mongiardo could face fierce competition in the Democratic primary, as state Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen have been mulling a run. Rep. Ben Chandler has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but is considered less likely to run than the other three Democrats.

PA: Toomey Won't Challenge Specter

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) has decided against a repeat run against incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in a 2010 GOP primary, and is instead reported to be more interested in the governor's race taking place that year, according to the Morning Call.

This is great news for Specter, who already faces a tough reelection battle even without the prospect of a bruising primary battle with Toomey, who is much more conservative than Specter and would have run competitively with him had he ran.

Now, Specter won't have to veer to the right to appease the conservative base of his party to win the GOP nomination. He can now just focus on winning over the moderate Pennsylvania voters who have kept him in the Senate for the last 28 years.

Toomey, who is the current president of the conservative organization Club For Growth, narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 GOP primary, and was Specter's only real reason to worry within his own party this time around. All Specter has to worry about now is who comes out of the Democratic primary, which should be a load off of his mind.

KY: GOP Urges Bunning to Retire

Unnamed Republican sources are "privately urging" Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) to retire at the end of his term in 2010 amid concerns that he would have a very hard time winning reelection.

Politico reports:

Some Republicans are privately urging Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) to step down at the end of his term amid growing concerns that he can’t win reelection in 2010.

According to two GOP sources, leading Republican fundraisers in Kentucky are hesitant to raise money for Bunning and have told him he should not seek a third term.

“They want him to realize he’s had a good run but that it’s time to move on. These people want to win, and they realize he could easily lose this seat,” said one leading Kentucky Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

While national campaign officials usually urge their incumbents to remain in office — recognizing it’s tougher to defend an open seat — even leading Republicans seem unconvinced Bunning can win reelection.

Asked if Bunning was the best candidate to run or if there were better GOP candidates, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas demurred: “I don’t know. I think it’s really up to Sen. Bunning."

In a statement, Bunning said:

“It’s a free country. Anybody can run for anything they choose. I am gearing up, and I look forward to the challenge of taking on whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in May of 2010."

NY-B: Gillibrand Chosen to Replace Clinton

As expected, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) announced Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) as the new US Senator from New York in a press conference earlier this afternoon.

However, the most peculiar thing about the press conference was the presence of former Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) just to Gillibrand's right (see picture), who was defeated by Chuck Schumer in the 1998 senatorial race.

This presence shows both Gillibrand's potential crossover appeal, given her centrist-to-conservative views on many issues, but it also symbolizes that potential primary trouble she may face from the progressive wing of her own party in 2010.

As I noted yesterday, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already pledged that she would challenge Gillibrand herself if no one else does because of Gillibrand's position on gun control.

In Gillibrand's acceptance speech this afternoon, she seemed to notice that she would not have a honeymoon period and that she might be in danger in 2010 by explicitly noting that she looked forward to working together with McCarthy in her effort to implement stronger background check legislation in gun sales.

This was a quick turnaround for Gillibrand, who received a 100% rating from the NRA in her two years as a congresswoman. She also seemed to have a similar change in view on the issue of gay marriage, in which she "assured the state's leading gay rights group yesterday that she backs same-sex marriage, and shows no other conservative leanings," according to Ben Smith.

So we don't really know what Gillibrand's true views are, but it is becoming increasingly clear that she is adapting to a broader and more liberal constituency representing the entire state than when she was representing her conservative congressional district in upstate New York.

Gillibrand, who is 42, is young enough to hold the seat for a very long time (unless she is unseated). She is considered to be one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, and is a member of the Blue Dog caucus. Smith notes that, "She's voted to the right on issues like the bailout, the balanced budget amendment, lowering the gas tax, and supporting the war."

Politico's Josh Kraushaar has compiled a list of pros and cons of picking Gillibrand as she prepares for a competitive race in 2010, which will likely be against Rep. Peter King (R-NY). Here's the gist of it:

Pros
-She has proven crossover appeal, representing a conservative congressional district upstate
-She's a prolific fundraiser
-She fits the mold of all the characteristics that Paterson was looking for in the Senator: a woman, someone from upstate, and someone that would be well-received by both the Clinton and Schumer camps

Cons
-She has had a privileged background and thus might have a hard time appealing to working-class voters
-Because of her conservative track record, she will likely be challenged by someone from the progressive wing of her party, setting up a potentially damaging primary
-Democrats have a weak bench in her district and there's a very good possibility that they will lose the seat to the GOP, which has a stronger bench to choose from

In an unexpected move, King praised Gillibrand and announced that he would wait until the summer to decide whether he would run against her. President Obama joined King in praising Gillibrand, but no public reaction has come from McCarthy yet.

Gillibrand is expected to be sworn in to the Senate by Vice President Biden on Monday.

NY-B: Paterson Will Announce Pick Friday

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will announce his pick to replace Hillary Clinton--who has just been confirmed as Secretary of State--at noon tomorrow, according to CQ Politics.

At this point the two front-runners for the seat appear to be state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, but more signs are pointing in the direction of Gillibrand as she now appears to be the favorite to take up Clinton's seat.

However, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has already said that if Gillibrand is the appointee, she would run against her in the primaries for the 2010 special election, citing her support from the National Rifle Association and her unabashed support for gun owners' rights.

"To have a Senator representing the NRA from New York, that would be wrong," McCarthy told the New York Times. "If it comes down to that, I will primary in 2010." I don't think this threat will affect Paterson's decision, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

NC-Sen Poll

Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the 2010 North Carolina Senate race yesterday, pitting incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) against Rep. Heath Shuler (D) in a hypothetical match-up. Here are the results:

Burr--39%
Shuler--28%
No Opinion--33%

I showed the "No Opinion" percentage this time because it seemed significant that so many North Carolina voters haven't made up their minds about either of the men.

The poll also pegs Burr's approve-disapprove rating at 33-30 and Shuler's approve-disapprove rating at 21-21. These are weak numbers for both men, but it does show that most people have no opinion either way about either of these men.

Shuler is among three Democrats that are widely mentioned as potential challengers to Burr, with the other two being state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.

A PPP poll released last month found Burr trailing Cooper 39-34, while a Research 2000 poll found Burr leading Cooper 45-43 and Moore 46-40.

All three of these men could potentially pose a strong challenge to Burr in the general election, and it seems as though the Democrats have a strong bench and many options with which to work with.

NY-B: Kennedy Withdraws Senate Bid

The New York Times is reporting the stunning development that Caroline Kennedy "has withdrawn [herself] from consideration for the vacant Senate seat in New York, according to a person told of her decision."

Kennedy was always thought to be Democratic Gov. David Paterson's top pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, who was confirmed today as Secretary of State. The New York Post even reported last week that she was going to be his pick.

Kennedy reportedly called Paterson late today to announce that she was withdrawing her name from consideration, citing her uncle Sen. Ted Kennedy's health problems. However, the Post is reporting that Paterson had already informed Kennedy that he would not pick her, and that her formal withdrawal was primarily just to save face.

Earlier polls show that New York voters prefer state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to fill the position, but it is not known whether these polls have swayed Paterson's decision for the appointment. Paterson has also recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Paterson is expected to announce his selection this Saturday. Stay tuned.

FL: Poll Shows No Clear Favorite in Either Party

A new poll from Quinnipiac confirms that the Florida Senate race remains a wide-open contest:

The decision by CFO Sink to walk away from the Senate race leaves a wide open scramble for the Democrat nomination. Because the survey was in the field when she announced her decision not to run, she was left on the list from which respondents were asked to choose for the rest of the polling. In a trial heat among Democratic candidates, she gets 15 percent, while U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek has 13 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Ron Klein at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd with 8 percent and State Sen. Dan Gelber at 1 percent. Even with a ballot that includes Sink, 54 percent of registered Democrats say they do not have a candidate.

In the Republican trial heat, McCollum gets 22 percent to Mack's 21 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, 6 percent for former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, 2 percent for former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, and 40 percent undecided.

Its far too early to take these numbers very seriously, because in the end the nominees of both parties will be the ones who can raise enough money and get the most support to run the best statewide race. But as of right now, we have no idea who is favored to be the nominee of either party will be, let alone who is favored in the general election.

Poll: Ohio Senate Race Wide Open

On Monday, Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the 2010 Ohio Senate race. The poll pits the likely Republican nominee, Rob Portman, against three potential Democratic opponents in a hypothetical match-up: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, Rep. Tim Ryan and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Here are the numbers:

Portman--41%
Fisher--39%

Portman--40%
Ryan--34%

Portman--42%
Brunner--34%

None of these candidates are universally known statewide, so all of them potentially have the opportunity to improve their numbers. But their favorability ratings give us a good idea of how Ohio voters perceive them thus far.

Portman has a favorable rating of 28% with 23% having an unfavorable opinion of him, while Fisher's numbers are 40-32, Ryan's are 26-27, and Brunner's are 34-36.

Based on these numbers, Portman is the least known of the the four potential candidates yet he leads all three of the Democrats--however, all of his leads were narrow and he barely reaches to 40% mark in each of the match-ups.

Portman has already officially announced his candidacy, but we are still waiting on Fisher, Ryan, Brunner, and others such as Reps. Zack Space and Betty Sutton to announce whether or not they are going to be running for this seat in 2010.

This poll confirms the fact that this race will be highly competitive no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and I will be keeping a close eye on it in the months to come.

Poll: Leahy Would Beat Douglas

A new Research 2000 poll pitted Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) against Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT) in a hypothetical match-up for Leahy's seat, which is up for election in 2010.

The poll shows that Leahy would handily defeat Douglas, 58% to 36%. Douglas still retains a decent approval rating of 52%, but it pales in comparison to Leahy's approval rating of 63%.

Douglas is widely thought to be the only Republican who could pose any sort of challenge to Leahy, but this poll shows that even if Douglas were to run, Leahy would barely break a sweat. Also, Douglas is up for reelection in 2010 and has not yet indicated any interest in running.

FL: Sink Rules Out Run

In a major blow to the DSCC, state CFO Alex Sink (D) announced Friday morning that she would not run for Florida's open Senate seat in 2010. In her announcement she announced that she had ruled out a run for governor and she will seek reelection for her current position.

Sink clearly would have been the strongest candidate on the Democratic side, and Florida Republicans were openly afraid of her potential candidacy, especially after Jeb Bush announced that he wouldn't run. She was thought to be the only Democrat who could have cleared a divisive primary field. Now it looks like the race is wide open on both sides.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber have already announced their candidacies, setting up a primary challenge--but potential candidates like Reps. Ron Klein and Allen Boyd (who says he's very close to making a decision about running) are still considering bids.

On the Republican side, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and Attorney General Bill McCollum are the most often mentioned as potential candidates--and now they might be more likely to run now that Sink has ruled out a run.

IL: Schakowsky Open to Challenging Burris in 2010

Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL), just hours after he was sworn in, found out that he may already be facing opposition in the 2010 Democratic Senate primary, if he chooses to run.

From Politico:

Rep. Janice Schakowsky (D-Ill.) is open to running against Roland Burris in 2010, potentially setting up a contested Democratic primary for the scandal-tainted Illinois Senate seat.

Schakowsky, leaving the Burris swearing-in ceremony Thursday, told Politico that "time will tell" whether she'd run or not. Asked whether she was ruling a run in or out, she said, "No."

Burris has not said whether he'd run in 2010, and some Democrats are reluctant to support him given that he's been appointed by Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who has been accused of corruption.

OH-Sen: Portman Announces Candidacy

The GOP scored their first recruitment victory when former congressman and Bush cabinet official Rob Portman officially announced his candidacy to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) earlier today. He is widely thought to be the most electable of the potential Republican candidates to run for Voinovich's seat.

He is the first candidate to jump into the race, and it is clear that he is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination. Just hours after his announcement, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) endorsed Portman. Republican Ohio Reps. Bob Latta and Patrick Tiberi followed suit soon afterward.

With nearly the entirety of the Ohio Republican Party coalescing around Portman, it is almost inconceivable that he won't win the GOP nomination.

Even though Republicans are rejoicing about Portman's candidacy, state Democrats will almost certainly tie him to George W. Bush, who appointed him to the positions of director of the Office of Management and Budget as well as U.S. Trade Representative over the past four years.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan is openly considering running while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will decide in one week whether or not he will enter the race. These two men are considered to be the strongest candidates on the Democratic side.

NH-Sen: Gov. Lynch Won't Run Against Gregg

Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) announced today that he will not be challenging incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) for his Senate seat in 2010. Lynch was widely thought of as the DSCC's dream candidate to take on Gregg.

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget,” Lynch told the New Hampshire Union-Leader at a press conference this afternoon.

Lynch is serving his third two-year term as governor, and was reelected to that position with 70% of the vote in 2008.

Now the two leading Democratic candidates to challenge Gregg are the state's two representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, who are both still deciding whether to run. An ARG poll shows that Hodes would be the stronger candidate of the two, so he will probably be the DSCC's top pick for this race.

Poll: Carnahan Leads Potential GOP Candidates

Only six days after Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced his retirement, PPP released the first poll for his potential successors in the 2010 election.

According to the poll, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) would lead three potential Republican candidates--Rep. Roy Blunt, former Sen. Jim Talent and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman--in Missouri's 2010 open-seat Senate race, if she decides to run. Here are the numbers.

Carnahan--45%
Blunt--44%

Carnahan--47%
Talent--43%

Carnahan--47%
Steelman--36%

These numbers show that Carnahan would start off in a strong position if she ran, even against the strongest Republican challengers, but she would not be a shoo-in by any means for the seat. Currently 45% of voters having a favorable opinion of her and 36% view her unfavorably.

Blunt, who runs the most competitively with Carnahan (most likely because of his high name recognition), is also viewed less favorably by Missourians, with only a negative favorability rating (40% view him favorably and 43% view him unfavorably).

Talent has the highest favorable rating of the three Republicans included in the poll, with 45% viewing him favorably and 39% viewing him unfavorably.

Steelman is the least known of the three, with 35% of the poll's respondents saying that they have no opinion of her either way, which means that she could potentially have room to improve her numbers once Missourians get to know her better.

But in any case, this early poll shows us that the race for this open seat will undoubtedly be very competitive.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek Will Run

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) officially announced earlier today that he will be running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) Senate seat.

He is the first Democrat to enter the race, while most other prominent Democrats in the state--namely Reps. Allen Boyd and Ron Klein--are waiting on state CFO Alex Sink to announce her intentions for 2010. If Sink runs, she will face a primary challenge from Meek, who will be a probably mount a competitive campaign.

Meek has already hired some talent to his campaign in the form of Steve Hildebrand, Barack Obama's deputy national campaign manager and the former political director of the DSCC. It is clear that he is very serious about running and should not be taken lightly by Sink or any other Democratic candidates.

NC-Sen: Poll Shows Burr is Vulnerable

A new Research 2000 poll shows that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) would be vulnerable against two potential Democratic challengers: state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former state Treasurer Richard Moore. Here are the numbers:

Burr--45%
Cooper--43%

Burr--46%
Moore--40%

As expected, Burr is going to have a tough reelection fight on his hands if either of these men run against him. This is yet another headache for NRSC Chairman John Cornyn--who already has four GOP retirements on his hands, but probably five with the addition of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX), who will likely resign her seat this year to run for governor.

Cooper has long been thought to be the strongest candidate to challenge Burr. Earlier polling even has Cooper leading Burr in a hypothetical match-up. Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in November and is a popular figure in the state, as opposed to Burr, whose favorables are 47/46.

But this poll shows that the DSCC has other options if Cooper opts out in the form of Richard Moore, who fared slightly worse in the poll but still kept Burr under 50%, which is a very good sign when pitted against an incumbent this far out from the election.

Any way you look at it, Burr is looks like he's going to be very vulnerable in 2010. All the DSCC has to do now is recruit a top-tier challenger like Cooper (or Moore) to give them a really solid shot of flipping the seat.

IL: Senate Dems to Seat Burris

From Politico:

The Roland Burris saga is over, as Democratic Senate leaders have accepted his credentials and will swear him in as the junior senator from Illinois by the end of this week. ...

In a statement issued after a 45-minute meeting between Senate officials and Burris’ lawyers, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Burris is now the senator-designate from Illinois after the secretary of the Senate approved his latest credentials.

Here's Reid and Durbin's official statement: "We have spoken to Mr. Burris to let him know that he is now the Senator-designate from Illinois and as such, will be accorded all the rights and privileges of a Senator-elect."

NRSC Chairman John Cornyn has already declared that regaining this Senate seat will be "a top priority for Republicans in 2010."

“I fully expect that the voters of Illinois will not soon forget this dark chapter in their state’s political history, just as I also expect voters across the country will not soon forget the arrogant mismanagement of Senate Democrat leaders in recent weeks,” Cornyn said in a statement.

The GOP is clearly smelling blood.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Officially Announces Retirement

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) officially announced Monday morning that, "After prayerful consideration and much thought, my wife Janet and I have decided that I will not seek a third term in the United States Senate."

Voinovich (left) is the fourth Republican Senator to officially announce his retirement, putting the GOP in a tough position yet again in 2010.

This retirement gives the Democrats a good opportunity to flip the seat in 2010, when the seat will be vacant. It will also likely set up a competitive primary on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton and Zack Space as well as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are often mentioned as potential candidates. Within hours of Voinovich's announcement, Ryan publicly confirmed his interest in running for the seat, while Fisher is reportedly leaning against running.

On the Republican side, Rob Portman--a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and US Trade Representative under President Bush--is strongly considering a run, and would be the heavy favorite for the nomination. Portman had announced earlier that he would be interested in running if Voinovich decided to retire, and has already been laying the groundwork for a run, according to The Hill.

Portman is thought to be able to clear the Republican primary field, as he reportedly has the support of the national party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). He will also reportedly will unveil Mercer Reynolds, the finance chairman of President George W. Bush's reelection race, to head his fundraising efforts. Portman is expected to officially announce his candidacy on Wednesday.

Former Rep. John Kasich has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he is widely thought to be more interested in challenging Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2010.

In the last two election cycles, the Democrats have made great strides--in 2006 they took over a Senate seat and the governor's mansion, and Barack Obama won the state in 2008.

With all of these retirements and what looks like another an unfavorable map for the GOP, it is becoming abundantly clear that Democrats will likely achieve a 60+ seat filibuster-proof majority after the 2010 election. It is also becoming obvious that some of these Republican Senators in their 70s are not wild about the idea of living out the rest of their years in the minority, and are getting out before it gets worse.

New NRSC chairman John Cornyn must be having an ulcer.

OH-Sen: Voinovich Will Retire

According to Politico and CNN, Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) will announce that he won't seek reelection in 2010 at some point tomorrow.

I'll have more on this disastrous development for the GOP after his official announcement.

Chris Cillizza's Top 10 to Watch in 2010

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has compiled a list of the top ten candidates/politicians to watch in 2010. Here are the five that are relevant to the 2010 Senate election and what Cillizza has to say about them:

• Michael Bennet: The common reaction -- even among political junkies -- when Gov. Bill Ritter (D) named Bennet as the next senator for Colorado was, "Who?" Bennet, the head of the Denver school system and the brother of Atlantic editor James Bennet, is an unknown in Washington who is likely to be overshadowed by the other two appointed Democratic senators from Illinois and New York for the first months of the 111th Congress. But, of all the appointed senators, it is Bennet who will almost certainly have the toughest challenge in holding his seat in 2010. The reviews out of Denver say Bennet is a star-in-the-making. He'll have a chance to prove it over the next two years.

• Robin Carnahan: Anyone who knows anything about Missouri politics knows the name "Carnahan." The first family of Missouri Democratic politics has experienced its share of triumph and tragedy (the death of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and his son in a plane crash, the election of Rep. Russ Carnahan to Congress) over the last decade but 2010 seems to be shaping up as a banner year thanks to the near-certain Senate candidacy of Robin Carnahan. Carnahan currently serves as the secretary of state in Missouri and is seen by political insiders as the most talented politician the family has ever produced. While she was considering a race against Sen. Kit Bond (R) in 2010, his retirement yesterday makes a Carnahan bid almost certain.

• Paul Hodes: The conversion of New Hampshire from a swing state to a Democratic stronghold is nearly complete. In 2006 Democrats defeated both Republican members of the House; two years later Obama won by nine points at the presidential level and Jeanne Shaheen (D) knocked off Sen. John Sununu (R). The last Republican standing is Sen. Judd Gregg and Democrats are gunning for him in the form of Hodes, who, after two terms in Congress, is likely to make the race. Hodes, who is well regarded among Washington campaign sharps, might have to get past fellow Rep. Carol Shea Porter in the primary but if he does he will be an even-money bet to beat Gregg in 2010.

• Mark Kirk: If ever there was a time when Illinois Republicans could reverse their long electoral skid in statewide races, the appointment imbroglio surrounding sort-of-senator Roland Burris is it. And, if ever there was a GOP candidate who can win, it is Kirk, a moderate who has held the Democratic-leaning 10th district despite a serious of tough Democratic challenges. Kirk seems ready to make the leap for the Senate in 2010 although he could face a primary challenge in the form of Rep. Pete Roskam. Much of Kirk's chances depend on how the Burris appointment plays out. If Burris winds up being seated and running again, Kirk can make the case that he carries the taint of Blagojevich and run against the Democratic machine that has controlled Chicago politics forever. If Burris bows out in 2010 and the race is an open seat, Kirk's task is more difficult.

• Marco Rubio: With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush out of the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), Rubio is almost certainly in. Rubio, who served as speaker of the Florida state House from 2006 to 2008, is a fascinating potential candidate. He was the first Cuban-American to hold the top job in the state legislature and his political base in traditionally Democratic South Florida makes him someone to be reckoned with in a general election. And, for a party desperately in need of leaders who can appeal to the rapidly growing Hispanic vote across the country, Rubio may be just what Republicans at the national level have been dreaming of.

With Blagojevich Impeached, IL Senate Battle Becomes Waiting Game

Gov. Rod Blagojevich was impeached by a vote of 114-1 in the Illinois House yesterday. The Illinois Senate will start the impeachment trial next week, and Blagojevich has vowed to fight every step of the way.

However, I'm getting really sick of hearing and talking about Blagojevich and his impending trial, so from now on, I'm just going to focus on his Senate appointee, former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris, and the Illinois Senate seat that hangs in the balance.

Meanwhile, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Jesse White could not be forced to sign Roland Burris' Senate appointment certificate, but it also ruled that White's signature was not necessary to have him officially seated.

Sen. Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), who was looking chummy with Burris just last week, made it clear that despite the court's decision Burris would not be seated without White's signature.

But after the court ruling, White signed the certification and verified Burris' appointment, putting Durbin and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in a tricky position. They said they are going to consult with lawyers to see what to do next, but they are probably just stalling for time.

They would like to wait until after Blagojevich's impeachment trial is over (in which he is certain to be convicted) and have Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) make the Senate appointment. But that process could drag into mid-February, and it will be hard to keep Burris' appointment at bay for another month or more.

Meanwhile, it appears clear that Illinoisans oppose seating Burris. A new poll from Glengariff Group says that they are opposed to seating Burris by 53-32 margin, while 72% of them want either a special election or an appointment by Quinn to fill the Senate seat.

Personally, I don't think that Reid and Durbin can keep the Burris appointment in limbo for another month, so I believe that he will be seated before the Blagojevich impeachment trial is finished.

I think that the biggest reason that they don't want Burris to be seated is because they're scared of what will happen in 2010. Burris will be 73 on election day, and the majority of Senate appointees have a really hard time getting elected.

On top of that, since most Illinoisans don't want Burris to be seated, most of them probably have and will continue to hold an unfavorable view of him. If Burris wins the Democratic nomination, a strong challenger like Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) could easily defeat him. The Democrats would then be losing a seat that they should have held easily.

The solution to prevent that kind of situation would be to pose a strong primary challenge to Burris in 2010. Andrew Tanenbaum of Electoral-Vote.com makes a case for Dan Seals, a potential (young and black) challenger "who ran for Congress in 2006 and 2008 and lost narrowly both times."

FL-Sen: CFO Alex Sink Ponders Senate Run

From Campaign Diaries:

Former Governor Jeb Bush’s decision not to run for Florida’s open Senate race has freed up other Republicans who are now considering a bid; but Democrats are still waiting for their towering figure, state CFO Alex Sink. The latest speculation was sparked by an interview Sink gave to St. Petersburg Times. She notes that “open seats like this don’t come around very often” and describes herself as “very strongly considering” running. It would be hard to blame the DSCC if they got excited by such comments, and it does sound like Sink is leaning towards a run.

OH-Sen: Voinovich To Retire?

The Columbus Dispatch and Political Machine are both reporting that Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) is seriously looking at the possibility of retiring. Voinovich is in his 70's and is near the top of most pundits' retirement list among Senators up for reelection in 2010.

The Political Machine article hints that Voinovich might announce his decision regarding his plans for reelection as early as next week.

If Voinovich were to retire, the most likely Republican to replace him would be Rob Portman, a former congressman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Trade Representative.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan would lead the pack in the Democratic primary if they announced their candidacies and could pose strong challenges to Voinovich or Portman in the general election.

Whether or Voinovich retires or not, this seat will be one the most competitive in the county in 2010, and it should be an interesting one to watch.

Trio of Senate Polls

A new Research 2000 poll shows incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49% to 40% in a hypothetical match-up. At this point, it seems as though Schwarzenegger could be the only Republican to unseat Boxer, whose approval-disapproval rating has dropped to 48-46.

But Schwarzenegger is already a very well-known and polarizing figure in California, and thus has little room to improve his numbers. His approval ratings are worse than Boxer's (42% approve and 51% disapprove). Also, his moderate nature would certainly draw a strong challenge from the right in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, this is all just speculation at this point, as Schwarzenegger has not yet made his intentions clear about his candidacy. The only Republican to announce his candidacy is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who was not included in the poll. It is widely thought that he wouldn't stand much against Boxer in the general election.

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Meanwhile, a new ARG poll pitted incumbent Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) against New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. Gregg beats Hodes 47% to 40% but crushes Shea-Porter 54% to 35%.

Even though ARG has a spotty track record, the fact that Hodes does far better against Shea-Porter against Gregg and that Hodes keeps Gregg under 50% should be a clear sign to the DSCC that Hodes would be the stronger candidate. Among undeclared (independent) voters, Gregg only leads Hodes 46-42.

The poll also shows that Gregg draws the support of 22% of Democrats against Hodes, which shows room for improvement but also shows that Gregg has strong support among New Hampshire's moderate base.

It's a pity the poll didn't pit Gregg against Gov. John Lynch (D), the least likely to run but probably the strongest challenger if he does so.

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And finally, the results of a new Rasmussen poll completely contradict a PPP poll released last Wednesday of the New York Senate race that showed Caroline Kennedy (D) leading Rep. Peter King (R) by only 2%. The Rasmussen survey showed that Kennedy would hold a wide lead over King, by a margin of 51% to 33%.

This Rasmussen poll seems to make more sense than the PPP poll. Kennedy carries one of the most famous and recognizable last names in politics and should be a darling of the Democratic base, and King is a relatively unknown figure in the state in a party that is clearly the minority in the state. Based on those circumstances, the Rasmussen poll which shows Kennedy far ahead, seems to be more accurate. But with such a wide discrepancy it's still hard to tell.

Hillary Clinton's Senate confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday and she is expected to be confirmed easily, so Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) will have to make a decision too about who to appoint to the seat. The other major contender for the seat in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but apparently Paterson is considering 10 to 15 candidates for the job.

MO-Sen: Kit Bond Will Not Run for Re-Election

Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) announced today that he will not be running for a fifth term in 2010. This is a big blow to Senate Republicans, who have already been greatly weakened by the last two election cycles and it gives the Democrats a greater chance of picking up the seat.

Senate Republicans now officially have three of their incumbents not running for reelection--Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, and now Kit Bond of Missouri. A fourth GOP Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, is almost certain to resign her Senate seat to run for governor but has not yet made a formal announcement. It is now abundantly clear that the GOP will be in for another tough election cycle.

Recent elections show that the Democrats are gaining ground in the state--Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated then-incumbent Republican Jim Talent in the 2006 Senate election and Democrat Jay Nixon was elected governor in 2008. The state also only gave John McCain a narrow 5,000-vote victory over Barack Obama. These losses for the GOP may have indicated to Bond would be vulnerable if he ran again in 2010.

Now that Bond is backing down, there is sure to be a very competitive primary on both sides. On the Republican side, potential candidates include former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, who are both rumored to be interested in the seat.

On the Democratic side, potentially strong candidates include Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Rep. Russ Carnahan, and State Auditor Susan Montee. Robin Carnahan has polled well against Bond, and looks like she would be an especially strong candidate.

You can expect the candidates mentioned above among others to take a much closer look at the race now that Bond has announced that he will step down.

PA-Sen: Matthews Won't Run

Before his show "Hardball" today, Chris Matthews informed the show's staff in a production meeting that he will not be running for Senate in 2010, according to Politico.

Matthews, who was thought to be a credible challenger for the Pennsylvania Senate seat held by Arlen Specter (R), and was polling well against him in a hypothetical match-up.

Matthews reportedly met with political operatives about the possibility of running against Specter, and talked about it with his family, friends, and colleagues. A Matthews candidacy would have likely cleared the the majority of the primary field on the Democratic side.

But instead, we can now expect there to be a competitive primary on the Democratic side, featuring Rep. Patrick Murphy and Rep. Allyson Schwartz as the potential front-runners.

AK-Sen: Palin vs. Murkowski Polls Show Vast Contradiction

About two weeks ago, a Research 2000 poll was released that showed that Gov. Sarah Palin would crush Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican primary by a margin of 55% to 31%. At that point, I noted that the seat was Palin's for the taking, referencing those numbers.

But then, in a complete 48-point reversal, a new Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading Palin 57% to 33% in a hypothetical match-up between the two among Republican primary voters.

So what the hell is going on here?

Well first, there's reason to be suspicious of the Dittman poll. It turns out it was commissioned by conservative radio host Dan Fagan, not KTUU, the local TV station who's name was in the title of the poll. And Fagan is most certainly not a fan of Palin and is a big fan of Murkowski, who he knows personally. So I wouldn't put my complete faith in this poll.

Second, Alaska has proven to be the most difficult state in the country to poll. In the 2008 election, the polls were off by a long shot in the presidential, Senate, and House races. Here's Nate Silver's theory:

[Alaska's] residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics. Several pollsters, including Research 2000, had no idea that Don Young would hang on to defeat Ethan Berkowitz in November, nor that Ted Stevens would come so close to Mark Begich.

So in sum, I have learned not to trust any poll from Alaska, but I'd say the Research 2000 poll is more viable and legitimate. But the real preference of Alaska Republicans in a Palin v. Murkowski race is probably somewhere in the middle of these two nearly polar opposite polls.

If I were Sarah Palin, I would think long and hard about challenging Murkowski for her Senate seat and giving up her own seat in the governor's mansion leading up to a 2012 run.

FL-Sen: Jeb Bush Will Not Run

To the surprise of myself and countless other political pundits, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced today that he will not run for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez's seat in 2010, the AP reports.

Bush said, "now is not the right time to return to elected office."

This announcement clears the field for several other prominent potential Republican candidates such as state House Speaker Marco Rubio, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, and state Senate President Jeff Atwater--who were all thought unlikely to announce their candidacies if Bush had decided to run.

Now, the primary on the Republican side should prove to be messy and as of now there is no clear favorite. The DSCC is trying to get state CFO Alex Sink to run, who will now probably be more likely to throw her hat in the ring now that Bush has made it clear he will not run.

Bush was thought to be the Republicans' strongest candidate, and they were openly hoping that he would run. Democrats are sure to be rejoicing as a result of this latest development, as their chance of flipping this seat has just increased greatly.

NY-Sen: Caroline Kennedy Rapidly Losing Support

This time last week it seemed all but inevitable that Caroline Kennedy would be Gov. David Paterson's (D-NY) choice to fill Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be vacant Senate seat.

But now, as two different polls from Public Policy Polling have shown, Kennedy's support among New Yorkers for getting that position have tanked recently, to the benefit of state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

The first poll showed that Cuomo leads Kennedy 58% to 27% among New York voters as the one that they would most like to see Paterson appoint to the Senate. Cuomo led Kennedy 54-34 among Democrats alone, while she held a 44-23 lead in last month's poll in that category.

The second poll, which came out today, showed both Cuomo and Kennedy matched up against Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in a general election match-up for 2010.

Cuomo would trounce King 48% to 29%, while Kennedy's margin of victory was 46% to 44%--which is in the margin of error. Cuomo would clearly be the stronger general election candidate, according to these polls.

If Gov. Paterson is making his selection based just on the numbers, Andrew Cuomo is his man.

For the record, I've been making the case for Cuomo from the start. I think he's clearly the more qualified candidate, and he could easily raise a large campaign war chest for the 2010 election, whether he would face off against King or even Rudy Giuliani. And the above poll shows now that he is more electable than Kennedy. I implore David Paterson to see reason and see the light.

IL-Sen: Roland Burris vs. Senate Democrats

All eyes were turned to Roland Burris this morning, as he walked over to the office of the Secretary of the Senate on Capitol Hill.

But, as expected, Burris request to be seated was refused, and the Secretary of the Senate's reason was reportedly that his credentials were not in order.

Now the next step in this process is Senate Democrats referring his appointment to the Rules Committee and to determine whether or not the process of his appointment via indicted Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) was tainted by the scandal in which Blagojevich allegedly tried to sell Barack Obama's Senate seat.

Either way, this is not going to be quick or painless. Harry Reid really has his work cut out for him dealing with this whole thing as carefully as possible.

Franken Will Wait

Even though Democrat Al Franken was certified as the winner of the Minnesota Senate recount yesterday, an election lawsuit brought on by the Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is preventing Franken from receiving the certificate of election that normally serves as a candidate's final and official credential to join the Senate.

Contrary to my earlier report via the Political Wire, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) did not attempt to seat Franken today as the Senate reconvened. The drama in that body was centered mostly around Roland Burris. More on that soon.

Reid Will Try to Seat Franken Tomorrow

From Roll Call:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will attempt to seat Democrat Al Franken as the junior Senator from Minnesota on Tuesday, despite promised legal challenges from incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) to the election outcome.

It seems like there will be a fair amount of drama tomorrow on the floor of the Senate. Reid and the Senate Democrats will be trying to seat Franken while trying hard to prevent Roland Burris--Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's appointment to fill Barack Obama's seat--from taking a seat.

With all this Capitol Hill drama, C-SPAN might get a few more viewers tomorrow than they usually do, making their total number of viewers in the double digits.

Canvassing Board Certifies Franken as Winner

Today was not a great day for now-former Senator Norm Coleman.

First, the state Supreme Court rejected his request to include about 650 additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots (most of which were in Coleman-friendly territory) to the final count and to delay the Canvassing Board from certifying a winner until that request was met. This lawsuit was what many thought was his last hope, and it was a Hail Mary pass at that.

The majority opinion of the court said that the Coleman campaign's attempt to include these additional ballots did not meet the criteria for counting ballots which was laid out in a previous ruling, in which they declared that both sides had to agree for any additional wrongfully rejected absentee ballots to be counted.

Then, later in the day, the Canvassing Board certified the results of the recount and declared Democrat Al Franken (above) as the winner by a margin of 225 votes.

Franken declared victory a short time after: "After 62 days, after the careful and painstaking hand inspection of nearly 3 million ballots, after hours and hours of hard work by elections officials and volunteers across the state, I am proud and humbled to stand before you as the next Senator from Minnesota," Franken told supporters today.

He also carefully called on Coleman to bow down and concede from the race so that Minnesota could seat two Senators as soon as possible.

But the Coleman campaign had different ideas. Coleman's attorney, Tony Trimble, confirmed earlier today that the campaign will be filing a formal lawsuit contesting the results of the Canvassing Board.

Even though Franken has now been declared the winner by the Canvassing Board, he will likely not be seated for some time. In Minnesota, an election's certification is not considered final and absolute if a legal contest is filed with one week. And you can bet the farm that Coleman will file his lawsuit in that 7-day window.

Also, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, threatened a Republican filibuster if the Senate Democrats try to seat Franken provisionally before all legal matters are attended to. He said that the GOP will also block Franken until Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) cosigns Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's election certificate.

But today's certification by the Canvassing Board was clearly a big step towards resolution of this endless Senate contest. Like I said yesterday, it's basically up to Coleman when this thing will end because it's all based on how long he wants to drag this thing out.

Schumer: Franken Won

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who just stepped down as the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declared today that Al Franken has defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senate recount.

“With the Minnesota recount complete, it is now clear that Al Franken won the election. The Canvassing Board will meet tomorrow to wrap up its work and certify him the winner, and while there are still possible legal issues that will run their course, there is no longer any doubt who will be the next Senator from Minnesota,” Schumer said in a statement.

The Canvassing Board is set to declare Franken the winner when they meet tomorrow, and then it is just a matter of time and lawsuits until Coleman gives up. That could be a matter of weeks or even months, depending on how long Coleman is willing to fight on.

With Recount Complete, Franken Leads By 225

With the help of the 933 wrongfully rejected absentee that were counted today by the Minnesota Canvassing Board, Democrat Al Franken gained a net 176 votes putting his overall lead over Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) at 225. This was the final step of the vote-counting process, and the recount is now officially over.

Now all eyes are turned to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which is considering a request from the Coleman campaign to include additional ballots that they believe were improperly rejected (which are from areas where Coleman did better). The Coleman campaign has also said that they will be challenging the results if and when Franken is certified as the winner.

Coleman is basically just grasping at some very short straws at this point, and barring a miracle, he will lose his seat to Franken just as soon as his court challenges are dealt with (and probably rejected).

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty has declared that the state will not certify a winner until all legal challenges are completed, so it could be a while until Minnesota seats two Senators on Capitol Hill.

It now seems highly unlikely that Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats will try to seat Franken until he is officially certified as the winner.

But all things told, it looks like Franken's eventual victory is all but certain at this point. The only thing holding me back from calling him Senator-elect Franken is that it still sounds really weird.

CO-Sen: Bennet to Replace Salazar

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet has reportedly been chosen by Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) to be the next Senator from Colorado.

Bennet will replace Ken Salazar, who has been tapped by Barack Obama to be his Secretary of the Interior, and will assume his office as soon as Salazar is confirmed by the Senate.

Bennet beat out a handful of more recognized names that were also being considered for the position, including Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Rep. John Salazar (Ken's brother), and Rep. Diana DeGette.

As superintendent of the Denver Public Schools, Bennet's work was regarded highly enough that he was reportedly a finalist to become Obama's Secretary of Education.

On the subject of what his politics are and how he will vote in the Senate, I will cede the floor to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: "If he fits the profile of a typical Colorado Democrat, he'll be liberal on social issues and the environment, but more moderate on fiscal policy (as his business background might imply)."

Salazar's seat was up for reelection anyway in 2010, so if Bennet decides to run to keep that seat, he would be competing for a full six-year term. If he is merely serving as a placeholder until 2010, then we could see a very competitive Democratic primary with no clear favorite.

But Bennet--who is 44 years old--has a bright political future ahead of him, or so it seems. I would be surprised if he didn't run in 2010, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.