Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Monday, December 29, 2008

Absentees--The Final Frontier in MN

In what will be the final act of this God-forsaken infinite Minnesota Senate recount between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, it's all coming down to the wrongfully rejected absentee ballots.

Local election officials have identified 1,350 of these ballots statewide. When the Coleman campaign tried to prevent these ballots from being counted earlier this month, the court ruled that the two campaigns would have to work out which ballots to count.

Representatives from the two campaigns will reportedly be starting to do that today, while the Canvassing Board will meet tomorrow.

Currently, Franken leads by an unofficial count of 46 votes. If that lead stands after all of the absentee ballots are counted, the Canvassing Board will declare him the winner. The Coleman campaign has strongly indicated that they will be taking this to court if Franken is certified as the winner.

Either way, it is unlikely that Minnesota will seat two Senators when Congress reconvenes on January 6. Minnesota's other Senator, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, said that whoever the Canvassing Board declares as the winner should be the state's new Senator, even if a court challenge by the losing side ensues. She added that the Senate could seat a senator pending litigation by the loser.

It is pretty clear that Franken will be ahead at the end of the counting of the absentees, so really she is saying through her teeth that Al Franken won--let's get on with it. But don't expect that to stop the Coleman campaign. I fully expect them to fight this until they can fight no more.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

MN Supreme Court Denies Coleman on Duplicate Ballots

The Minnesota Supreme Court unanimously denied Norm Coleman's request to prevent the state Canvassing Board from certifying the results of the recount until they deal with the issues regarding the 150 or so ballots (in Democratic areas) that they claim were counted twice.

They decided that Coleman just didn't have enough evidence, and what evidence they did have was circumstantial at best.

This law suit was really Coleman's last shot at winning this race. As of right now, he is trailing Al Franken by 46 votes, and the only votes that have not yet been counted are the 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots, which are expected to favor Franken (the Coleman campaign went to court to try and stop these from being counted).

The race will not be certified until January 5 at the earliest, and Franken should be declared the winner on or around that date. But the Coleman campaign has indicated that they will contest Franken's victory in court after it is certified.

This thing might drag on deep into January, and it looks increasingly likely that when the next Congress convenes on January 6, Minnesota will only seat one Senator--at least until this whole mess is finally resolved.

Senators That Are Least Loyal to Their Parties

CQ Politics has come up with a table on how each congressman, both in the House and Senate, has voted with or against President Bush and how often they vote with their party. For our purposes, I'm going to focus on the Senators and their party loyalty.

I think that the most relevant bit of insight that these ratings give are the Senators from both parties that are least loyal to their parties, because they are the ones who will ultimately decide what cloture motions among others come into place. So, I'll give you the top 7 most disloyal members of each party, starting from least loyal. An asterisk denotes that they are up for reelection in 2010.

Democrats
1.) Evan Bayh (IN)*--voted 65% of the time with the party
2.) Mary Landrieu (LA)--voted 69% of the time with the party
3.) Ben Nelson (NE)--72%
4.) Mark Pryor (AR)--79%
5.) Tim Johnson (SD)--80%
6.) Tom Carper (DE)--80%
7.) Blanche Lincoln (AR)*--81%

These seven are the moderate-to-conservative Democratic Senators that Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) and Barack Obama has to be worried about within his party when passing legislation and invoking cloture.

Republicans
1.) Olympia Snowe (ME)--voted 39% of the time with the party
2.) Susan Collins (ME)--voted 46% of the time with the party
3.) Gordon Smith (OR)--54% he is being replaced by Jeff Merkley (D)
4.) Arlen Specter (PA)*--62%
5.) George Voinovich (OH)*--67%
6.) Norm Coleman (MN)--69% he might be replaced by Al Franken (D)
7.) Lisa Murkowski (AK)*--72%

These moderate-to-liberal Republican Senators are going to consistently make Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) very nervous when the Democrats try to invoke cloture on a given bill.

McConnell and the rest of the Republicans should be especially worried about Specter and Voinovich, who are both up for reelection in 2010 and are from states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

Early 2010 Census Projections

The census bureau has estimated that after the 2010 census, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will all lose one seat in the House (and one electoral vote).

It also found that Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Utah will each gain one House seat (and an electoral vote), and that Texas will gain three.

Put into perspective of the 2008 presidential election, the Republicans will gain a net 5 electoral votes and the Democrats will lose a net 4 electoral votes--a 9-vote advantage from the previous electoral college map for the GOP.

Several other states might lose or gain a seat in the House, depending on population trends in the next year.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

PA-Sen: Polls Show Matthews Would Be Strong Against Specter

Chris Matthews, the host of the MSNBC show Hardball, has not yet announced whether or not he will challenge incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in 2010.

Apparently, Matthews is still deciding whether or not to run against Specter, but some recent hypothetical polling of Pennsylvania voters has showed that he would fare well against Specter. The numbers speak for themselves, so here they are:

Specter--45%
Matthews--44%
(Research 2000, administered Dec. 10)

Specter--46%
Matthews--43%
(Rasmussen Reports, administered Dec. 2)

It is incredibly rare that a challenger in a Senate race polls this well against an incumbent (who is fairly popular) this early on, let alone one that has not yet announced their candidacy.

And if he was worried about surviving the Democratic primary, that same Research 2000 poll showed that he would defeat two of the leading potential Democratic candidates, Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz.

Matthews--24%
Murphy--19%
Schwartz--15%

Like I said before, these numbers really speak for themselves. Matthews should take a close look at these numbers before making his decision about whether or not to run.

AK-Sen: Palin Would Beat Murkowski in Senate Primary

According to a new Research 2000 poll, Sarah Palin would defeat incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a Republican senatorial primary by 24 points. Here are the numbers.

Palin--55%
Murkowski--31%

So it looks like if Palin wants to go to Washington leading up to a 2012 run for the presidency, the job is hers. Murkowski has already warned Palin to stay away from the race, and that she would give Palin a "tough election."

This Research 2000 poll also pitted Palin and Murkowski against two potential Democratic candidates, former Gov. Tony Knowles and state Sen. Hollis French. Here are those numbers.

Murkowski--49%
Knowles--41%

Murkowski--56%
French--27%


Palin--53%
Knowles--39%


Palin--58%
French--27%


So it looks as though Palin would be more electable than Murkowski as well against at least these two Democrats in a general election. Murkowski better hope that Palin doesn't run.

The poll was taken December 15-17 and has a 4% margin of error.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Poll: Colorado Senate Matchups

PPP is out with a poll of a set of hypothetical general election matchups to fill Ken Salazar's vacant seat in the Senate. The four potential candidates included in the poll were Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D), Rep. John Salazar (D), former Gov. Bill Owens (R), and outgoing Rep. Tom Tancredo.


John Hickenlooper--54%
Bill Owens--40%


John Salazar--52%
Bill Owens--43%


John Hickenlooper--54%
Tom Tancredo--37%


John Salazar--53%
Tom Tancredo--40%


From these numbers, it looks like John Hickenlooper would more electable than John Salazar against either Republican candidate. Hickenlooper is also the top choice among Coloradoans to be appointed as the state's new Senator. Here are those results from that PPP poll.


John Hickenlooper--23%
John Salazar--15%
Andrew Romanoff--12%
Federico Pena--11%
Diana Degette--8%
Ed Perlmutter--6%
Cary Kennedy--2%


Did these numbers from PPP just make Democratic Governor Bill Ritter's appointment decision a whole lot easier? Stay tuned.

Franken Leads Coleman by 48 Votes

From the Star Tribune:

MINNEAPOLIS - Democrat Al Franken is poised to hold on to a 48-vote lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman as Minnesota's Canvassing Board awards a final pile of votes in the state's unsettled U.S. Senate race. But the counting isn't over yet.


The board on Tuesday is to award votes from about 5,000 challenges that had been withdrawn by both campaigns. Based on a draft report released late Monday by the Secretary of State's office, once those votes are awarded Franken will have 48 more votes than Coleman.


The two campaigns and the Secretary of State's office still have to agree how to handle an estimated 1,600 improperly rejected absentee ballots. And the state Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear arguments over a Coleman claim that some ballots were counted twice.


The Coleman campaign made the claim this afternoon to reporters that Coleman will regain the lead in the race if the court upholds their request to review the alleged "double-counted" ballots. In response, the Franken campaign said, "There is no evidence that any ballot has been counted twice. None."


Nevertheless, the Minnesota Supreme Court's decision about if or how to deal with the 130 ballots or so that were allegedly double-counted might actually be the deciding factor in this race.


Don't you just love it when the courts get the final say in a close election? Oh the memories...

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Franken Expects to Beat Coleman By 35-50 Votes

From Politico:

Al Franken’s campaign is as close to declaring victory as it has throughout the weeks-long recount in the Minnesota Senate race.

Franken’s campaign attorney Marc Elias said he expects Franken to be leading Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) by “between 35 and 50 votes” when the Canvassing Board finishes counting all the disputed ballots on Tuesday.

“On Tuesday, I will stand before you with that work completed. Al Franken will have a lead of between 35 and 50 votes. And, at some point not too long after that, Al Franken will stand before you as the senator-elect from Minnesota,” Elias said at a press conference Saturday.

Currently, Franken leads Coleman by 251 votes, but his campaign expects that his lead will dwindle after the rest of the withdrawn challenges are sorted out and counted. His lead will also likely grow after the some 1,600 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots are counted--which the Coleman campaign tried very hard to prevent from happening in court.

Franken's range is a bit more conservative than the Star Tribune's estimate that he will win by 78 votes, so Franken's claim seems credible. The Coleman campaign is saying that they'll have the lead once the recount is "fully completed," but they have to say that in order to stay credible.

But in reality, in seems as though Coleman's only path to victory is that the counting of the absentee ballots nets only a few votes for Franken and the state Supreme Court sides with him and mandates a review of the some 150 ballots that his campaign claims were counted twice and that re-tabulation favors him enough to overcome Franken's lead of 35-50 votes. But there is no indication that removing these duplicate ballots will favor him, because they seemed to arise essentially at random during the counting process.

The Canvassing Board will review the remaining disputed ballots Monday and Tuesday, but the counting of the absentee ballots and the matter of the duplicates might drag on into the new year.

But
essentially, Norm Coleman needs a miracle on top of a Hail Mary to win this one.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Cillizza's Top Ten 2010 Senate Races

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has assembled a list of the ten most likely Senate seats to flip in 2010. Here it is.

1.) Sen. Jim Bunning (KY)
2.) Sen. David Vitter (LA)
3.) Open (FL)
4.) Sen. Arlen Specter (PA)
5.) Sen. Kit Bond (MO)
6.) Sen. Judd Gregg (NH)
7.) Open (CO)
8.) Open (KS)
9.) Illinois
10.) Sen. Harry Reid (NV)
10.) Sen. George Voinovich (OH)

My rundown of all of the 2008 Senate races is here. It is likely to be updated as new developments occur in these races, so feel free to check up on it every so often.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Democrat Perriello Wins VA-05

At long last, the final unresolved House race in the country has been decided. Democrat Tom Perriello has officially defeated Republican incumbent Rep. Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th Congressional District.

Perriello led Goode by 745 votes after the initial tally, but since the margin was so close, Goode called for a recount.

In the recount, which ended earlier today, Goode only netted 18 votes, coming 727 short of defeating his opponent.

Now that this race has been resolved, the official final count for the 111th House of Representatives is 257 seats for the Democrats and 178 seats for the Republicans--a 79-seat advantage for the Democrats. They picked up a net 21 seats in the 2008 election.

The only race from 2008 that has yet to be resolved is the Minnesota Senate race. I will delve more into the status of that race later this week.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Houston Mayor Will Run for Vacant TX Senate Seat

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) is not up for re-election in 2010, but is already preparing to make a run for governor in that same year. This means that her seat will be vacant in 2010 and there will be a special election, giving the Democrats a good shot of picking up the seat then.

Hutchinson has said that she will step down from the Senate in late 2009, prompting Republican Gov. Rick Perry--the man she'll be facing off against in what is sure to be a bitterly fought primary--to appoint an interim successor, who may or may not run to keep the seat in 2010.

On the Republican side, there is expected to be a bloody fight for the nomination as former GOP Secretary of State Roger Williams and Republican state Sen. Florence Shapiro of Dallas have announced that they will run--and I'm sure that most if not all of Texas's 20 Republican representatives are strongly considering running.

Both national and state-level Democrats have convinced Houston Mayor Bill White to run for the open seat. White has proved himself a capable candidate in a state that is unfriendly and unforgiving to Democrats, winning re-election in 2007 with 86% of the vote.

The Democrats will still probably be the underdogs going into the race, but they will surely put up a fight. And having such a popular figure run for office, as well as the prospect of a bitter and bruising Republican primary might give them hope of flipping a Senate seat in a very red state.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Salazar Will Leave Senate for Cabinet Post

The Denver Post is reporting that Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) has accepted the offer to be President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior, and will be vacating his seat in the Senate once he is confirmed for the post.

Salazar narrowly defeated Republican Pete Coors in the 2004 Colorado Senate election, so in theory he was vulnerable anyway. However, Salazar was a popular figure statewide, had good approval ratings, and wasn't expected to face serious opposition from across the aisle.

But now that Salazar is out of the way, the 2010 election looks brighter for Republicans, who will probably have a better chance against whoever Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter appoints to the Senate than they would against Salazar. But they would still be fighting an uphill against Salazar's replacement.

Since 2006, Colorado has turned increasingly bluer. In 2006, Bill Ritter took over the governor's mansion, and in 2008, Barack Obama carried the state by eight points and Democrat Tom Udall defeated his Republican opponent by ten points in a formerly Republican-held seat.

The Denver Post also reports:

Names floated as possible successors include Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper; U.S. Reps. John Salazar, Ed Perlmutter and Diana DeGette; Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet; outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff; and former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland, among others.

This race should be an interesting one to watch.

Caroline Kennedy Will Seek Clinton's Senate Seat

From the New York Times:

Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of an American political dynasty, has decided she will pursue the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, a person told of her decision said Monday.

The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight.

Ms. Kennedy will ask that Gov. David A. Paterson consider her for the appointment. The governor was traveling to Utica today could not immediately be reached for comment.

If appointed, Ms. Kennedy would fill the seat once held by her uncle, the late Robert F. Kennedy.

Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest.

Sen. Inouye (HI) Will Seek Re-Election

The 84-year-old Daniel Inouye (D-HI) has announced that he will run for a ninth term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Given his age, speculation about his retirement arose in recent months, but he quelled that speculation with this announcement.

Inouye (pronounced in-NO-ay) is very popular in Democratic-leaning Hawaii and won re-election in 2004 with 76% of the vote. His only threat in 2010 would be Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who will be term-limited, but she hasn't given any indication yet of what her plans are for that year.

Even if she did run, Inouye would be the strong favorite, as he is a local institution and has represented the state literally since it joined the union in 1959.

In all likelihood, Lingle will not run this time around. Instead, she might take her chances against Hawaii's other, less-popular Democratic Senator, Daniel Akaka, when he goes up for re-election in 2012, which is sure to be a better cycle for Republicans.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Rundown of the 2010 Senate Races, Part I (Updated)

The following is a rundown of the 37 Senate seats that are up for election in 2010 as well as my rating (Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up) for each one of them.

Given, a lot can and will change between now and 2010: the mood of the country, the success of things such as the stimulus package, and whether or not top-tier candidates jump into these races. And we will not know all of that for a quite a while, so take these descriptions with a grain of salt.

The races are listed in alphabetical order by state. All Republicans are in red and all Democrats are in blue. The potential challengers/candidates names in bold are the ones that are attracting the most speculation at this time; the ones in italics are unlikely to run.

First, we'll start with the Republican-held seats.

Alabama (Richard Shelby)--SAFE GOP
Dick Shelby is a deeply entrenched incumbent with huge campaign war chest. Barring some scandal or major gaffe, Shelby is safely on his way to a fifth term.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Bobby Bright, 2004 Senatorial Candidate Wayne Sowell
Announced Challengers: None

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)--SAFE GOP
Most of the excitement in this race, if there is any, will come from the Republican primary. If Sarah Palin challenges Murkowski in the primary in order to catch the spotlight leading up to a 2012 presidential run, Murkowski could be in trouble. The only Democrat who could make this race remotely competitive is former Gov. Tony Knowles, but even he would have a hard time unseating Murkowski, who defeated him six years ago.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Sarah Palin, Former Gov. Tony Knowles, Former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, State Sen. Hollis French
Announced Challengers: None

Arizona (John McCain)--SAFE GOP
McCain's only real threat was Gov. Janet Napolitano, but she will now be Secretary of Homeland Security. Most of the remaining viable Democrats are going to focus on the governor's race.
Potential Challengers: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Attorney Gen. Terry Goddard
Announced Challengers: None

Florida (Open)--TOSS-UP unless Charlie Crist (R) runs
Republican Sen. Mel Martinez announced that he would not seek a second term, resulting in an open seat opportunity for the Democrats. On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek, state Sen. Dan Gelber and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns have already entered the race, and we're still waiting on Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Rep. Ron Klein to announce their plans for 2010 (Klein has said that he is running for reelection, but is leaving the door open for a Senate run). The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is trying to recruit popular Gov. Charlie Crist to run for the seat instead of running for reelection, but he said he would not make a decision until spring. Polls have shown that he would crush any Democrat in the general election. Other potential Republican candidates--like Rep. Connie Mack, Rep. Vern Buchanan and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio--are probably waiting on Crist to announce his intentions for 2010 before making decisions of their own.
Potential Candidates: Gov. Charlie Crist, Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio, Rep. Vern Buchanan, Former State House Speaker Allan Bense, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, Rep. Ron Klein
Announced Candidates: Former Sen. Bob Smith, Rep. Kendrick Meek, State Sen. Dan Gelber, North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns

Georgia (Johnny Isakson)--SAFE GOP
The Democrats don't have much of a bench in Georgia, so it seems highly unlikely that he will be unseated. However, a PPP poll showed that he might be more vulnerable than most think, showing him leading Attorney Gen. Thurbert Baker and Rep. Jim Marshall by 6 and 9 points, respectively. But it is unlikely that either of these Democrats give up their current positions to challenge a popular Republican incumbent. However, there have been rumors floating around that Isakson might face a primary challenge, possibly in the form of Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA).
Potential Challengers: Rep. Paul Broun, Attorney Gen. Thurbert Baker, Rep. Jim Marshall, Former Sec. of State Cathy Cox, State Labor Commissioner Mike Thurmond
Announced Challengers: None

Idaho (Mike Crapo)--SAFE GOP
Crapo (pronounced Cray-po) will cruise to re-election without a shadow of a doubt, his last name aside. The Democrats didn't even put up a challenger against him last time.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Iowa (Chuck Grassley)--SAFE GOP unless he retires
Grassley will be 77 in 2010, so he is on everyone's retirement watch. If he does retire, this race will become one of the Democrats' top takeover opportunities, as there will be no shortage of strong Democratic challengers who will be interested in the seat with Rep. Bruce Braley leading the way. But if he decides to run for reelection, he's safe.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Steve King, Rep. Bruce Braley, Former Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson, State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, Former Rep. Mike Blouin, Former Assemblyman Ed Fallon
Announced Challengers: None

Kansas (Open)--SAFE GOP
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)--who will be term-limited in 2010--was widely thought to be the Democrat's only hope to make this seat competitive. But she was tapped as President Obama's Secretary of Health and Human Services, which eliminates the possibility of her running for the seat. Meanwhile, state Republicans are gearing up for a heated primary battle between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Assuming Sebelius doesn't run, the winner of the GOP will likely become the next U.S. Senator from the state of Kansas.
Potential Candidates: Former Lt. Gov. John Moore, Former Rep. Nancy Boyda, State Sen. Chris Steineger
Announced Candidates: Rep. Jerry Moran, Rep. Todd Tiahrt

Kentucky (Jim Bunning)--TOSS-UP
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and NRSC chair John Cornyn (R-TX) are trying to get Bunning to retire, because they are concerned about his reelection prospects and think that they may have a better shot of retaining the seat if another Republican ran in his place. But Bunning has taken on McConnell, calling him "deaf, " fervently insisting that he will run again. Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004, has announced his candidacy, ensuring a competitive race. But he will first have to face a tough primary against state Attorney General Jack Conway (D).
Potential Challengers: State Senate President David Williams
Announced Challengers: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, Attorney Gen. Jack Conway,Former US Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald

Louisiana (David Vitter)--LIKELY GOP
Vitter's involvement in the DC Madam scandal will undoubtedly complicate his reelection bid. He may even face a serious primary challenge from Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. But Vitter is positioning himself so far to right (he was one of two Senators that voted against confirming Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State) so that someone like Dardenne would have a hard time running against him from the right. He clearly think that his major test will be the primary, not in the general election, as the Democrats' bench is pretty weak in Louisiana.
Potential Challengers: Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Porn Star Stormy Daniels, State Sen. Eric LaFleur, Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard, District Attorney Paul Connick, State Sen. Rob Marioneaux, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, Former Rep. Chris John
Announced Challengers: None

Missouri (Open)--TOSS-UP
Republican Sen. Kit Bond announced that he will not seek a fifth term, so the seat will be open in 2010. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) announced that he would run for the seat, and has the backing of the GOP's state and national establishment. He might face opposition in the primary from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who would run a bruising insider/outsider campaign against Blunt. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who is thought to be the strongest Democratic candidate, announced her candidacy and is likely to clear the Democratic primary field. If its a Blunt vs. Carnahan race, as expected, it will be one of the most competitive races in the country, and the DSCC will make this a top pickup target.
Potential Candidates: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. William Lacy Clay
Announced Candidates: Rep. Roy Blunt, Sec. of State Robin Carnahan

New Hampshire (Open)--TOSS-UP
All of the drama surrounding Gregg and withdrawal from Commerce Secretary has resulted in a wash since Gregg has agreed not to run for reelection, so it will be an open seat in 2010. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) announced that he will run for the seat, and the Democratic establishment appears to be behind him--and now that Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) has backed down, he is the likely Democratic nominee. tate Republicans are trying to get former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH)--who was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008--to enter the race, but he no longer lives in New Hampshire, and might not want to run two years after getting ousted by the same voters. If Sununu opts out, the GOP bench gets very thin.
Potential Candidates: Former Sen. John Sununu, Former Gov. Steve Merrill, Former Rep. Charlie Bass, Former Attorney Gen. Tom Rath, Businessman Sean Mahoney, 2008 Congressional Candidate Jennifer Horn, Attorney Gen. Kelly Ayotte, Former State Supreme Court Justice Joseph Nadeau
Announced Candidates: Rep. Paul Hodes

North Carolina (Richard Burr)--LEAN GOP unless Roy Cooper (D) runs
This is North Carolina's "buyer's remorse seat," having changed hands in the last five elections. Burr has tepid approval ratings and he could be in some trouble if the DSCC recruits a top-tier challenger. State Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) has matched up well against Burr well in early polling and would be probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.
Potential Challengers: Attorney Gen. Roy Cooper, Rep. Mike McIntyre
Announced Challengers: None

Ohio (Open)--TOSS-UP
Sen. George Voinovich announced in early January that he would not run for reelection in 2010, and former Bush appointee and Rep. Rob Portman (R) announced that he would run for his seat. He has the backing of state and national Republicans and will almost definitely be the Republican nominee. Two of the state's top Democrats--Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner--announced that they would run, setting up a contentious primary.
Potential Candidates: State Auditor Mary Taylor, Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune, Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones
Announced Candidates: Former Rep. Rob Portman, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner, State Rep. Tyrone Yates

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)--SAFE GOP unless Brad Henry (D) runs
This race probably won't be competitive unless popular governor Gov. Brad Henry, who will be term-limited in 2010, jumps in the race. But that is very unlikely.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Brad Henry, State Sen. Andrew Rice
Announced Challengers: None

Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)--LEAN GOP unless Pat Toomey (R) wins the GOP nomination
Club For Growth President and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), a staunch conservative, announced that he will seek a rematch against Sen. Arlen Specter (R). He is expected to pose a very strong challenge to Specter from the right with plenty of fundraising and establish support, and may very well defeat him and get the GOP nomination. At least that's what the Democrats are hoping for, as Toomey is seen as a much weaker general election candidate than Specter. If Specter comes out on top, he will still be weakened financially and will have veered to the right in order to appease Pennsylvania Republicans after the primary, thus making him a weaker general election candidate. In fact, Toomey's entrance in the race could make potential candidates like Rep. Allyson Schwartz and Auditor Gen. Jack Wagner more likely to jump into the race. Of course, there's always the possibility that Specter switches to an Independent before then, complicating matters further.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Auditor Gen. Jack Wagner, Rep. Patrick Murphy, State Rep. Josh Shapiro, Rep. Joe Sestak, Philadelphia District Attorney Lynne Abraham
Announced Challengers: Former Rep. Pat Toomey, Anti-Abortion Rights Activist Peg Luksik, Larry Murphy, Joe Torsella

South Carolina (Jim DeMint)--SAFE GOP
The top viable candidates in both parties will be focused on the governor's race. Also, the Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina, so DeMint is completely safe.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

South Dakota (John Thune)--SAFE GOP
Thune is very popular, and all of the prominent Democrats are going to be focused on the governor's race. Statewide Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin could be a potentially viable challenger, but if she gives up her House seat, it will be to run for governor, not the Senate.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Announced Challengers: None

Texas (Unknown)--LIKELY GOP
Popular Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson will challenge fellow Republican Rick Perry for governor in 2010. She has said that she will likely resign her seat sometime in 2009, and Perry will appoint a Republican to replace her until the 2010 special election. On the Democratic side, Houston Mayor Bill White has declared his candidacy and former state comptroller John Sharp will probably jump in as well.
Potential Candidates:
State Rep. Rafael Anchia, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Attorney Gen. Greg Abbott, State Sen. Florence Shapiro
Announced Challengers: Houston Mayor Bill White, Former State Comptroller John Sharp

Utah (Bob Bennett)--SAFE GOP
Utah is as red as it gets, so there is not a chance for any Democrat. He might, however, get a challenge from the right in the form of Attorney David Leavitt, who is best known for his successful prosecution of polygamist Tom Green. But if he gets past the primary, he will win a fourth term easily.
Potential Challengers: Attorney David Leavitt, Attorney Gen. Mark Shurtleff
Announced Challengers: None

And now for the seats held by Democrats.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)--SAFE DEM
Even though Arkansas goes red in presidential elections, it is very Democratic at the state level. The probable GOP candidate is former US Attorney Tim Griffin, who is unlikely to defeat Lincoln.
Potential Challengers:
Former US Attorney Tim Griffin, State Sen. Gilbert Baker
Announced Challengers: State Sen. Minority Leader Kim Hendren

California (Barbara Boxer)--SAFE DEM
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina appears to be the only Republican who could make this race interesting. But even if she did run, a recent Field poll showed that she would not come close to defeating Boxer, despite Boxer's wavering popularity back home.
Potential Challengers: Businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher
Announced Challengers: Assemblyman Chuck DeVore

Colorado (Michael Bennet)--LEAN DEM
Sen. Ken Salazar was picked by Barack Obama to be his Secretary of the Interior, so Gov. Bill Ritter (D) tapped Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to replace him. Bennet has made it clear that he will run for the seat outright in 2010. The top Republican recruit in the state, Attorney Gen. John Suthers, announced that he will not run again Bennet, further weakening the Republicans' chances of flipping the seat. The top potential GOP candidates are now former Gov. Bill Owens (who is unlikely to run) and former Rep. Bob Beauprez.
Potential Challengers: State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Former Rep. Bob Beauprez, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, Former US Attorney Troy Eid, Former Gov. Bill Owens, Former football star John Elway, Former Rep. Tom Tancredo
Announced Challengers: None

Connecticut (Chris Dodd)--TOSS-UP
Dodd is in deep trouble. He's under fire for recent allegations that he received a sweetheart mortgage deal from Countrywide Financial, he is still suffering--financially and with supporters back home--from his unsuccessful presidential campaign where he camped out in Iowa for several months, and is being blamed by most Connecticut voters for the AIG bonuses fiasco. A recent Quinnipiac poll shows his negatives skyrocketing at 59% and his favorables bottoming out at 33%, while he trails likely GOP nominee former Rep. Rob Simmons 50-34. Dodd is now clearly the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2010 and will need all the help he can get to win a sixth term in the Senate.
Potential Challengers: Former Ambassador Tom Foley
Announced Challengers: Former Rep. Rob Simmons, State Sen. Sam Caligiuri

Delaware (Open)--SAFE DEM
The governor appointed Joe Biden's old staffer, Ted Kaufman, to replace him, but he has indicated that he won't run in 2010. The front-runner for the Democrats will be state Attorney General Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq. Republican hopes rely on statewide Rep. Mike Castle, but he is unlikely to run--he is old, has health issues, and has a relative safe House seat. The chance that he will jump in the race greatly decreased after Christine O'Donnell, the GOP's 2008 Senate nominee, announced that she will run. O'Donnell is seen as a much weaker opponent than Castle. Assuming Castle passes on the race and O'Donnell is the Republican nominee, the winner of the Democratic primary will undoubtedly go on to win the general election. If Biden doesn't run, the DSCC would try to recruit former Lt. Gov. John Carney, but Carney is said to be more interested in running for the House seat currently held by Castle.
Potential Candidates: Attorney Gen. Beau Biden, Rep. Mike Castle
Announced Candidates: Christine O'Donnell

Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)--SAFE DEM unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R) runs
Despite his very old age, Inouye has announced that he will seek reelection. The GOP's only hope is with Gov. Linda Lingle, who will be term-limited in 2010. But a recent Research 2000 poll showed Lingle trailing Inouye in a hypothetical match-up, 53-42. Even though Lingle is popular, Hawaii is a staunchly Democratic state and Inouye has been serving in Congress since Hawaii achieved statehood in the 1950s and is a fixture in the state. Plus, Lingle is likely to wait for a senatorial retirement to try her luck.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Linda Lingle
Announced Challengers: None

Illinois (Roland Burris)--LIKELY DEM
Roland Burris has not made up his mind about 2010 despite the controversy that surrounds him and the multiple calls for him to resign. But if he does run, he will have an incredibly hard time in 2010 in the Democratic primary, let alone the general election. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has already announced that he will run for the seat in 2010, whether Burris runs or not. He might be joined in the Democratic primary by political powerhouses such as Rep. Jan Schakowsky and former Commerce Secretary William Daley. Republicans' hope seems to lie with Rep. Mark Kirk, but a recent poll shows that he has net negative favorability ranking and doesn't fare well hypothetical general election match-ups--even against Burris. But with the recent scandals, lies, and further incriminating developments, it is becoming very clear how 2010 will shape up: if Burris is the Democratic nominee, the seat will flip to the GOP; if someone else (i.e. Giannoulias, Schakowsky) wins the nomination, the seat will most likely stay in Democratic hands. It's also possible that Burris will leave office--whether he resigns or is impeached--before 2010, in which case there would be a special election within four months of him leaving office.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Former Commerce Secretary William Daley, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., Rep. Mark Kirk, Rep. Peter Roskam
Announced Challengers: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias

Indiana (Evan Bayh)--SAFE DEM
Indiana is turning bluer and Bayh has $11 million on hand if by some miracle the GOP puts up a viable challenger. He's a shoo-in.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)--SAFE DEM
Mikulski will be 74 in 2010, but even if she retires the Democrats would still start with the upper-hand. If she runs again, she will be re-elected no matter what. There are rumors that she might replace Tom Daschle as President Obama's nominee for Secretary of Health and Human services, in which case Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) would get to appoint her replacement.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

Nevada (Harry Reid)--LEAN DEM
Reid's approval ratings are just awful and he'll take a lot of flak as Majority Leader in his bid for re-election, and the GOP is going to put in a lot of money to try and bring him down. However, the Republicans aren't in a great position to unseat him. Nevada is turning bluer and Reid can use his position to raise a ton of money. His two major potential challengers just suffered major setbacks--Rep. John Porter just lost his bid for reelection, and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki just got indicted. However, a Research 2000 poll showed that Reid only led Porter by an uncomfortable six points in a hypothetical match-up, and Krolicki is still seriously considering running against Reid despite his impending indictment charges. But whoever the GOP puts forth to challenge Reid, you can expect them to mount a solid challenge to Reid with a lot of help from the NRSC, and he is clearly the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Dean Heller, Former Rep. Jon Porter, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki
Announced Challengers: None

New York (Chuck Schumer)--SAFE DEM
The races for the governor's mansion and Hillary Clinton's vacant senate seat will draw all of the competition away from Schumer's race, so he is as safe as can be. He might even run unopposed.
Potential Challengers: None
Announced Challengers: None

New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)--SAFE DEM unless Former Gov. George Pataki (R) runs
Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) appointed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, a moderate Democrat, to fill Hillary Clinton's open Senate seat in January. Gillibrand, who is only 42, is a prodigious fundraiser and a fierce campaign opponent. Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who would be the GOP front-runner if he ran (unless former Gov. George Pataki jumped in), has said that he will wait until the summer to decide whether or not he will run against her in 2010. Meanwhile, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY), representing the liberal wing of the party, has said that she would run against Gillibrand in the Democratic primary if no one else did, citing Gillibrand's support of gun owners' rights. However, Gillibrand is expected to move farther to the left because she is now representing New York as a whole, which is far more liberal than her old congressional district. Groups like EMILY's List have already started to coalesce around Gillibrand, and majority of New Yorkers now approve of the appointment.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Steve Israel, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, Former Gov. George Pataki, Rep. Peter King
Announced Challengers: None

North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)--SAFE DEM unless Gov. John Hoeven (R) runs
Dorgan is very popular and will probably win re-election unless popular Gov. John Hoeven runs against him, which is unlikely.
Potential Challengers: Gov. John Hoeven, Duane Sand
Announced Challengers: None

Oregon (Ron Wyden)--SAFE DEM
Wyden is very popular, and any credible Republican opposition is going to focus on the governor's race.
Potential Challengers: Former Sen. Gordon Smith
Announced Challengers: None

Vermont (Patrick Leahy)--SAFE DEM
Unless Leahy retires, his seat is untouchable. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas is the only Republican who could potentially make this race interesting, but a Research 2000 poll showed that Leahy would handily defeat Douglas if he ran. But Douglas is up for reelection in 2010, so he is unlikely to challenge Leahy in what would be a very difficult race for the Republican.
Potential Challengers: Gov. Jim Douglas
Announced Challengers: None

Washington (Patty Murray)--SAFE DEM
Murray, who is often underestimated as she was in 2004, is pretty much a shoo-in to win a fourth term in this increasingly Democratic state. So most credible Republicans will probably wait for a better cycle to try their luck.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Dave Reichert, Attorney Gen. Rob McKenna, Former State Sen. Dino Rossi
Announced Challengers: None

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)--LIKELY DEM
Feingold, who has been one of the Senate's most liberal members since he joined in 1993, is a perennial target for Republicans, so we can be sure that they'll put at least a halfway decent candidate. Feingold's approval numbers have worsened of late, leaving an opening for a top-tier challenger such as Rep. Paul Ryan. If Ryan takes a pass on the race, the GOP bench becomes much thinner, and Feingold will have an easier path to winning a fourth term.
Potential Challengers: Rep. Paul Ryan, Attorney Gen. John Van Hollen, Green Bay Mayor Jim Schmitt
Announced Challengers: None

Friday, December 12, 2008

Franken Wins Two Key Canvassing Board Decisions

From Politico:

Al Franken’s campaign won two key rulings today that may help him overcome a tiny deficit against Sen. Norm Coleman in the Minnesota Senate recount.

The Minnesota Canvassing Board unanimously recommended that all counties include the absentee ballots that were unfairly rejected on Election Day in the recount. Election officials throughout the state have been sorting absentee ballots based on why they were rejected – and putting aside a fifth group (called the “fifth pile”) with those unfairly rejected ballots.

Minnesota’s Deputy Secretary of State predicted over 1,500 ballots fall in this category. If they’re included, they could potentially overturn Coleman’s razor-thin lead. Coleman leads Franken by 192 votes, according to the Secretary of State’s official count.

Earlier, the Canvassing Board voted unanimously to include the 133 missing ballots from a Minneapolis precinct that voted overwhelmingly for Franken -- another victory for the Franken camp. Coleman’s campaign argued the ballots may never have existed in the first place, and shouldn’t have been counted.

Next week, the Canvassing Board will pore over as many as 4,000 ballots that both campaigns have disputed.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Carmouche Unlikely to Ask For Recount

Earlier today, the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche announced that it is unlikely that they would call for a recount in the close election in Louisiana's 4th district.

Carmouche is simply waiting for the vote to be certified tomorrow, after election officials count the small number of remaining provisional and absentee ballots, which is unlikely to tilt the race in his favor.

His opponent, Republican Jim Fleming, leads Carmouche by 356 votes. So without a recount, it seems highly likely that Fleming will prevail and keep the seat in the Republicans' hands.

Search for Misplaced 133 Ballots Called Off

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

The missing 133 ballots in a Minneapolis precinct are going to stay missing - at least for now.

City spokesman Matt Laible said today that officials had suspended the search for the ballots that began after they turned up missing in the waning hours of last week's U.S. Senate recount.

The matter will be turned over to the state Canvassing Board, which will decide whether the 133 will be officially counted, Laible said.

The ballots at issue are from the Dinkytown neighborhood, a heavily Democratic area, and a comparison of Election Day results and recount totals indicates that not counting them could cost Al Franken a net of 46 votes. That has prompted his campaign to complain loudly about the disappearance. The campaign of Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, however, expressed skepticism that the ballots were truly lost.

Franken campaign attorney Marc Elias is now saying that the Franken campaign wants to switch back to the original election night tally, instead of just throwing away the 133 votes, which would essentially cut Franken's losses.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Wins OH-15

From the AP:

Democrats have taken a seat from House Republicans after the counting of provisional ballots in a race in central Ohio.

Unofficial results Sunday showed that Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy beat Republican Steve Stivers by more than 2,000 votes.


Provisional ballots are issued at polls to people who believe they were wrongly denied the right to vote. Kilroy had held a lead of less than 600 votes before they were counted.


This victory for the Democrats puts the composition of Congress at 256 Democrats to 177 Republicans, a 79-seat majority. The only two races that have yet to be resolved are LA-04 and VA-05, where there will likely be recounts in both districts.

Cao Uspets Jefferson in LA-02; Fleming Declares Victory in LA-04

In Louisiana's 2nd District, little-known Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao defeated nine-term Democratic incumbent Rep. William Jefferson--who is facing a multi-count federal indictment for a corruption case that involves $90,000 in cash being found in his freezer--in a stunning upset.

This district is overwhelmingly black and Democratic, and Jefferson--despite his indictment--was widely expected to win re-election. Instead, Cao will take up his spot, and will be the first Vietnamese-American to go to Congress.

In Louisiana's 4th district, Republican John Fleming leads Democrat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes with 100% of precincts reporting, but provisional ballots are still outstanding. Fleming has claimed victory, but Carmouche has not conceded defeat.

The local newspaper, The Shreveport Times, is calling it for Fleming, but the AP has not yet done so. FiveThirtyEight.com is calling it an "apparent victory" for Fleming.

Since Fleming's margin of victory was less than half of a percentage point, Carmouche can still demand a recount, but making up the difference 356 votes out of about 90,000 might be too high a mountain to climb for Carmouche. But hey, it's Louisiana, so anything can happen.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Ohio Supreme Court Tosses 1,000 Ballots in OH-15

Voters had improperly filled out the outer envelope on the disputed ballots, which had been among about 27,000 left to be counted in the undecided 15th district congressional race between Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

On Friday, the Ohio Supreme Court threw out about 1,000 provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Franklin County that had been improperly filled out by voters in the tight congressional race in Ohio's 15th district--between Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

The all-Republican court turned down Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's motion to have the 1,000 votes counted by a count of 4-2. Since Brunner is a Democrat, many of her decisions and actions have come under scrutiny from Republicans that she is favoring Kilroy.

The 1,000 ballots in dispute had been improperly signed on the outside of the envelope or signed in the wrong place. There are still 27,000 provisional ballots that Franklin County elections board spokesman Ben Piscitelli said would be tabulated Saturday afternoon and likely certified by Monday.

Right now, Stivers leads Kilroy by 149 votes. Since this race is likely to be decided a double-digit margin of votes, a recount is likely. So we may not know the winner of this one until closer to Christmas. Oy.

LA-02 and LA-04 Elections Are Today

The last two races of the 2008 election will be happening today in Louisiana's 2nd and 4th districts. The Democratic and Republican primary dates were moved back because of Hurricane Ike, so now the general election will be today.

In Louisiana's 2nd district, which encompasses a large chunk of New Orleans and is heavily black and Democratic, the incumbent, Democrat William Jefferson, has been indicted on twelve counts of corruption, money laundering, and international bribery among other things. His opponents are the Republican candidate, lawyer Anh "Joseph" Cao, and the Green Party candidate, community organizer Malik Rahim.

Despite Jefferson's indictment, he is expected to win re-election. But then, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a problem on her hands on whether to seat him on committees, say he's innocent until proven guilty and seat him until the trial, or expel him from the caucus? We'll take a look at that after we know the outcome of today's election.

In Louisiana's 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming are vying to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery. Polls show the race to be very very close, and it is considered a tossup by most political pundits.

President-elect Barack Obama, clearly wanting to expand his party's majority in the House, cut a radio ad for Carmouche. Michelle Obama also recorded a robo-call for him as well.

This race could truly go either way, but it would be icing on the cake if the Democrats picked this seat off from the Republicans. I'll be back later with the results from the two races.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Democrat Concedes in CA-04

From Politico:

Republican Tom McClintock is now officially the congressman-elect from California’s Fourth District after his Democratic rival, Charlie Brown, conceded the race this afternoon.

McClintock declared victory earlier in the week, but Brown’s campaign hinted it would ask for a recount. But with McClintock leading by 1,576 votes, Brown today decided not to contest the race.

"Unfortunately, we've come up less than one half of one percent -- just under 1,800 votes -- short of victory," Brown said in a statement. "So a short time ago, I called Senator Tom McClintock to congratulate him on a hard fought victory, and to wish him well in Congress."

This puts the current tally of the new House of Representatives at:
Democrats: 255
Republicans: 176

Only four House races have yet to be resolved.

In Ohio's 15th district, Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 594 votes. But the outcome of this election depends on an imminent decision by the Ohio Supreme Court about whether to count about 27,000 disputed provisional ballots from Democratic-leaning Franklin County, which is also Kilroy's native county. If the court rules in favor of counting the ballots, the Democrats will pick up this seat.


In Virginia's 5th district, Democrat Tom Perriello leads Republican incumbent Virgil Goode by 745 votes after the final tally. But state law requires a margin of that size to give way to an automatic recount, which will take place on December 16. Perriello's lead is expected to hold, but nothing will be official until all of the 316,679 votes are recounted on that day.

There will be elections in Louisiana's 2nd and 4th districts on Saturday, which were postponed by Hurricane Ike. I'll have more on those races later this week.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Chambliss Wins Runoff

With 93% of precincts reporting, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss (left) leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin 58 to 42%. AP, CNN, and most of the other major news organizations have called the race for Chambliss.

African Americans did not come out in as large numbers as they did in November, and Chambliss's message seemed to have resonated with many Georgians.

This is certainly a disappointing night for Democrats, whose dreams of a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate were dashed tonight by Chambliss's victory.

But this election can be a learning lesson for Democrats for future election years. As Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com said, "I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010."

The current count of the new Senate is 58 to 41 in the Democrats favor (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side).

The only race that has yet to be decided is the one in Minnesota, where the recount is still going on. The the Canvassing Board will have to look over at least 6,000 challenged ballots, one-by-one, before we know the winner. And that probably won't be until late December at the earliest.

For those of you out there who still crave more elections, the last two races of this year will be on Saturday, as LA-02 and LA-04 hold their postponed elections. I will delve into those races later in the week.

Georgia Senate Runoff Prediction

The polls in Georgia close in a few hours, and I thought I'd give my last minute prediction--my last one until 2010--right about now. So for old time's sake, here we go.

Right now the polls have Chambliss up by about 5 points over Martin going into election day, but it is nearly impossible to run an accurate poll in a runoff election because it is very hard to predict turnout (which is supposed to be way down from November 4). But here's my prediction anyway:

Saxby Chambliss* (R)
--53%
Jim Martin (D)
--47%

Let's put it this way. On the day before the runoff election, Chambliss had Sarah Palin campaigning for him and Martin had the rapper Ludacris. That fact alone should speak volumes about what the outcome of this race will likely be.


Overall, the national GOP has put a lot more effort into this race, contributing money and sending Republican stars like John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and of course, Sarah Palin to stump for Chambliss.

On the Democratic side, only Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Donna Brazile have made appearances for Martin.


And to be fair, the Republicans have been making a much stronger argument to Georgia voters in their attempt to "stop rampant liberalism" by preventing the Democrats from attaining that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

There has been some anecdotal evidence that Martin does have a better ground game and get-out-the-vote effort than Chambliss, which is probably because hundreds of volunteers and paid campaign workers from the Obama campaign swooped down to Georgia to work for Martin right after the November 4 election.

But the bad news for Martin is the group that saved him from losing outright to Chambliss on the first election day--African Americans--have dropped off, according to polling data of early voters. 35% of early voters were African Americans in the first election because of the excitement with Obama, but now that number has dropped to 23%. That's going to be a big problem for Martin.

Martin's campaign is saying that unlike
the Obama campaign's emphasis on early voting, they did not do a gigantic early and absentee voting push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout. They had better hope so, or they really don't have a prayer.

I think that between Chambliss's argument that he's the firewall between the Democrats and their 60-seat majority, the GOP star power in Georgia, and the drop in African American turnout, Chambliss will win the seat comfortably by six points over Martin.

Since Chambliss did finish 3 points ahead of Martin on November 4, he is still the favorite, but is by no means a shoe-in. It is true that anything can happen in the runoff, and they notoriously hard to predict. But it does seem as though there is a strong motivation among Georgia Republicans to come back and win this one.

Runoffs are usually a battle of the bases, and to me, it looks like their base is more enthusiastic and will come out in larger numbers to keep their guy, Saxby Chambliss, in the Senate.