Check out my rundown of the 2010 Senate races here

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Head of Obama's VP Team Resigns

In other VP news, the head of Obama's vice-presidential vetting team, James A. Johnson (left), resigned on Wednesday to try to silence a growing commotion over his past business activities.

Johnson is an experienced member of the Washington elite, and was in charge of the vice-presidential search and vetting teams of Democratic nominees John Kerry and Walter Mondale.

McCain has attacked Johnson--a former executive of Fannie Mae--for receiving mortgages on "favorable terms" from the Countrywide Financial Corporation, the mortgage company that was a central player in the subprime lending crisis.

In recent days, Johnson has also faced questions about his role on compensation committees that awarded large payouts to corporate executives.

Whatever the accusations are, the fact that Johnson is a Washington insider working for the Obama campaign goes directly against Obama's claim that he will run his campaign independent of special interests and the Washington establishment.

Obama had defended Johnson up until Tuesday, but issued a statement Wednesday in response to his resignation: “Jim did not want to distract in any way from the very important task of gathering information about my vice-presidential nominee, so he has made a decision to step aside that I accept.”

His experience in the VP vetting process will surely be missed by the campaign, but on the whole, considering his baggage and controversial past, his departure is a positive.

Plus, he picked two unsuccessful vice-presidential nominees--John Edwards and Geraldine Ferraro--so how great can this guy really be anyway?

Historical Context of "Dream Ticket"

With all this talk about whether Sen. Barack Obama should pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running-mate, I thought I might provide some historical context on the subject.

Now, I am not saying whether or not Obama should pick Clinton--there are many, many positives and many, many negatives that come along with picking her--and I believe that she is his second best choice. But these two historical examples will demonstrate how picking Clinton might be an asset for Obama.

In the 1960 Democratic primaries, the two main contenders were Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas. Kennedy was dogged by Democratic party elders as being too young and inexperienced--much like Obama was--and that he should be a running-mate for a more experienced Democrat, such as Johnson, who had 24 years of experience and was a hotshot in the Senate--much like Clinton is today.

Anyway, the two competed hard against each others in the primaries, and clearly disliked each other--many suspect that Obama and Clinton are not fond of each other as well. But when Kennedy got the nomination, he surprised everyone by asking Johnson to be his running-mate.

Johnson turned out to be an excellent running-mate by campaigning vigorously for JFK and was instrumental in carrying states that Kennedy could not have carried otherwise, namely Texas. The pair went on to beat Richard Nixon in the general election.

Many believe that Clinton would campaign vigorously for Obama in the general election if she was chosen as his running-mate, and that she would make states like Ohio and Florida much more competitive-- states that he would have had a harder time carrying without her. In that respect, Clinton could help Obama in the electoral college in the same way that Johnson helped Kennedy.

The other example I want to share with you is about the 1964 Republican primaries. At that time, the Republican Party was deeply divided between its conservative base, and its more moderate faction.

Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona was the champion of the conservative base of the party, while Gov. Nelson Rockefeller of New York was the champion of the moderates. In a bitterly divided primary season that came down to California, Goldwater won by a small margin and became the presumptive nominee.

The 1964 Republican National Convention was extremely bitter, and both factions of the party openly expressed their contempt for each other. At the convention, Goldwater picked relatively unknown Rep. William Miller of New York as his running-mate. As a result, Rockefeller and other moderates refused to endorse Goldwater and did not campaign for him.

Some moderates even created a "Republicans for Johnson" organization. Goldwater should have picked Rockefeller for VP, who had a strong national following and could have united the party. Goldwater ended up losing to Johnson in a landslide in the general election.

This could be the nightmare scenario of the Democrats this year if Obama does not pick Clinton as his running-mate. Obama--who is seen as more liberal than Clinton--might need to pick Clinton--who is more moderate--to unite the two factions of the party.

Several "Democrats for McCain" organizations have already been created since Clinton dropped out last week. If this in-party fighting continues, the Democratic National Convention could be a disaster, like it was in '64. Clinton has a huge national following and millions of supporters--just like Rockefeller did, so the potential for a party rift is there.

Obama could learn from Goldwater's mistake and pick her to unite the party, so he won't lose in a landslide like Goldwater did.

Ohio Gov. Strickland Rules Out VP

Sen. Barack Obama's vice-presidential short list grew smaller by one Tuesday, when Ohio Governor Ted Strickland outright refused the notion that we would accept a spot as the Vice Presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket.

During an interview with National Public Radio, when asked if he would share a spot on the ticket with Obama, he said, “Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept, and if elected I will not serve. So, I don’t know how more crystal clear I can be.”

He added: “That does not mean that I am any less committed to helping Barack Obama become the next president.”

This statement comes as Obama’s VP search team meets with leading Democrats on Capitol Hill to discuss prospects.

Strickland has been on many pundits' veep lists (including mine), because he is the popular governor of a battleground state, he has tons of experience, and he was a Methodist minister.

He was a strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton during the primaries and was a big factor in her victory in the state. This could have been an asset to Obama in an attempt to unify the party and not pick someone who has backed him all along, like Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Strickland has repeatedly suggested Clinton as a running-mate for Obama.

Now that Strickland has essentially ruled himself out, I will remove him from my list of Obama's possible running-mates. Check that list for more changes are the veep search continues.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

McCain Challenges Obama to Series of Debates

The day after Sen. Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, Sen. John McCain immediately looked to take the spotlight away from him by challenging him to a series of ten town hall style debates.

McCain is calling for one of these debates per week until the Democratic national convention in August. He said that he wants voters to see himself and Obama for who they really are, without "spin rooms" and "process questions from reporters."

This move was carefully mapped out by the McCain campaign for a few reasons.

One is that Obama has raised tens of millions of dollars more than McCain already, and this would be good free publicity and TV time for McCain. Another reason is that Obama is a much, much better public speaker than McCain, and is actually capable of inspiring people. So instead of giving formal stump speeches--which is Obama's strength--his solution is to have informal question-and-answer sessions, where he thinks his vast experience will show.

It's also an attempt to keep the pressure on Obama, and not let him ease into his position as the Democratic nominee.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe issued this statement in response to the challenge: "The idea of joint town halls is appealing and one that would allow a great conversation to take place about the need to change the direction of this country."

Plouffe also added that he wanted to make some minor changes to the format: "We would recommend a format that is less structured and lengthier than the McCain campaign suggests, one that more closely resembles the historic debates between Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas. But, having just secured our party's nomination, this is one of the many items we will be addressing in the coming days and look forward to discussing it with the McCain campaign."

The McCain campaign believes that they will fare better against Obama in this format because Obama is used to big rallies where he prepares what he's going to say ahead of time. They believe that he might slip up if he's caught off guard.

Yeah, that's real likely. We're not going to hear anything we don't already know, or anything even remotely intellectually stimulating. As the author of the blog on Electoral-Vote.com said so well, "it is rare for an ordinary citizen to ask any question that a competent seventh grader couldn't answer perfectly well."

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Clinton Concedes, Endorses Obama

After 16 months of brutal campaigning for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton finally suspended her historic presidential campaign and endorsed Sen. Barack Obama on Saturday.

As the most successful female presidential candidate in history, Clinton opened the door to millions of other women to run for the highest office in the country. "And although we weren't able to shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling this time, thanks to you, it's got about 18 million cracks in it," she said.

She talked about how this campaign was a milestone for women and noted that having an African American win the nomination was also a milestone.

Clinton was criticized for ending her campaign on Tuesday night, when Obama secured enough delegates to claim the nomination. Many Democrats were concerned about whether she would fully or half-heartedly back Obama, and her overall tone in her concession speech and the effect it might have on party unity.

But she came through for Obama, giving him her full and unequivocal support in an effort to unite the party in November. "Today as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary campaign he has won. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him and I ask of you to join me in working as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me," Clinton said from the National Building Museum in Washington.

"Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been." Clinton said. It truly was one of the best (if not the best) speech of her life, and she did what she had to do, however painful it might have been for her.

Here is the first part of her speech:



After all of their bitter fighting, this thing finally ended on a positive note, and if she follows through on her promises of uniting the party and doing whatever it takes to elect Obama, she will have healed the party and gotten her (positive) reputation back.

Even though she endorsed him in a dramatic fashion today, Obama is going to have a lot of work to do winning over her supporters, especially among women, working class whites, and Latinos. And they won't come on over to Obama in a massive exodus just because Clinton said they should.

In response to her speech, Obama issued a statement welcoming her support. "Obviously, I am thrilled and honored to have Senator Clinton's support. But more than that, I honor her today for the valiant and historic campaign she has run."

As I saw highlights from the speech, I wondered why Obama was not there with her. After all, it was such a powerful message having John Edwards there with Obama during his endorsement. But then I realized why: this is her moment. This is her chance to say goodbye to her millions of supporters, and it was most likely a very emotional day for her.

And I'm sure they'll be together on the campaign trail numerous times--VP or not.

So now, Obama has no other distractions in his fight against McCain. In a demonstration that he plans to alter the electoral map this election, Obama campaigned in Virginia earlier this week--which has not voted Democratic in 44 years--and then he plans to campaign in North Carolina--which hasn't voted Democratic in 32 years--and then off to Missouri, a state Bill Clinton carried in '96.

In this red state tour, he will also likely speak about the economic downturn, specifically the ever-rising gas prices (averaging $3.99 a gallon nationally) and unemployment (up to 5.5%), as well as the continued fear of a recession. However, this will be a difficult task because the economy is not Obama's strong suit.

Obama will also be upping his vetting process for possible running-mates in the coming months, as well as completing the transition from the primaries to the general election.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Clinton To Drop Out Saturday

Several major news organizations have declared that Sen. Hillary Clinton will drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination Saturday. They also report that she will endorse her rival, Sen. Barack Obama, who clinched the nomination Tuesday night. Finally.

Clinton’s aides said she would "express her support for Senator Obama and party unity" at an event in Washington that day. They also said that she would concede defeat, proclaim Obama as the Democratic nominee, and offer her services to assure his victory against Sen. John McCain--the presumptive Republican nominee--in November.

Apparently, she came to this decision after she spoke to some of her supporters on Capitol Hill about her future in this race.

Even her most prominent and loyal supporters will likely announce their support for Obama in the coming days.

Her concession speech on Saturday will end the record-breaking 16-month primary contest between these two historic candidates. After that, the talk of the town will be whether Obama will pick her as his running-mate.

Obama Clinches Nomination

Sen. Barack Obama received enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party Tuesday night. The voters of South Dakota and Montana moved him across the finish line of the 2,118 delegates needed to nominate, even though dozens of superdelegates endorsed Obama as polls closed in those two states.

He defeated Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton after 16 months of grueling campaigning, including five months of bitter primary and caucus contests. Obama will be the first African American to head a major-party ticket.

Obama gave his victory speech from St. Paul, Minnesota--the site of the Republican National Convention that will take place in September. And let me tell you, that was no coincidence.

He acknowledged that he has a lot of work ahead of him (like that isn't the understatement of the century), and said, "Tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another -- a journey that will bring a new and better day to America...Because of you, tonight I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America."

I want to take a minute and reflect on the monstrous upset that Obama has achieved. He--albeit narrowly--defeated a candidate who represented the most powerful family in Democratic politics, and the former first lady of a president that remains popular among Democrats.

Clinton was the pseudo-incumbent coming into this race, and was seen as the "inevitable" nominee of the party. In an interview with CBS's Katie Couric before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton refused to even entertain the idea that she would not win the nomination. This is absolutely the biggest upset in recent American political history.

Last night, Clinton did not drop out of the race, even though it is virtually impossible for her to capture the nomination (she would need an act of God). Last night in her speech in New York City, she said, "This has been a long campaign, and I will be making no decisions tonight."

She is likely staying in to get some leverage in either her hunt for the vice presidency or to get Obama do adopt her health care policy or something. My guess is the vice presidency.

Tuesday afternoon, she told supporters that she would be open being his vice presidential nominee, further raising questions about her intentions in staying in the race.

She will likely work out a deal with the Obama campaign before she drops out and endorses him.

Even though I still think that Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia is the most practical vice presidential pick for Obama, having Clinton on the ticket might be the smarter thing to do at this point, to unite the party and exploit both of their strengths together on the same ticket.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Clinton Wins Puerto Rico in Landslide

On Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton won a landslide victory over Barack Obama in Puerto Rico. She won 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%, and netted 21 delegates.

This margin was much larger than expected for Clinton, considering the polls only had her up by about 20 points. But it was disappointing in the fact that the Clinton campaign had hoped for a turnout as high as two million, but the actual turnout was less than 400,000.

This apathy can partly be attributed to the fact that Puerto Ricans cannot vote for president in the November election because they are not a state.

The reason for Clinton's win was explained by an exit poll from CNN, which showed that Puerto Ricans who voted in the primary yesterday have an extremely favorable opinion of former President Bill Clinton.

Anyway, the impact of this primary is not very significant on the larger scale, but it further demonstrates her overall dominance since Indiana and North Carolina. She has finished this race very strongly, and she is even expected to be competitive in South Dakota, which was once thought to be solid Obama territory.

Even though tomorrow's primaries in South Dakota and Montana mark the official end of the primary season, Clinton is reserving the right to fight on and is still touting her popular vote argument, which does not include the estimated results from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington caucuses. According to those estimations, Obama still leads by about 44,000 votes nationally.

But in the end, the popular vote does not really matter. Delegates do. By averaging the numbers to the right, Obama is about 44 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Obama will likely get 17 out of the 31 delegates up for grabs Tuesday, putting him about 27 delegates away from the nomination.

Only about 200 superdelegates have not endorsed a candidate yet, so if we include South Dakota and Montana, Clinton will need about 171 (86%) of them to reach 2,118. Obama only needs about 27 (14%).

And according to CBS, the majority of the 17
uncommitted superdelegates from the U.S. Senate plan to endorse Obama after tomorrow's primaries, as well as at least a dozen House members. And those two groups alone get him to 2,118.

The clock is running out for Hillary Clinton. The sooner she comes to terms with that and drops out, the stronger the party will be.